In the winter of 2021, just after the 2021 college football season ended, Lincoln Riley did the unthinkable. Riley left the all-mighty Oklahoma Sooners for the in-the-gutters USC Trojans. This move sent shockwaves through college football. Many fans pointed to the move to the SEC as why Riley left, but ultimately, we’ll never know. Oklahoma hired Brent Venables to replace Riley. Venables was an obvious candidate to lead Oklahoma into the SEC, given his background in the South with Clemson and his defensive acumen.
Almost three years later both fanbases want to fire and possibly fight their head coaches.
It’s fair to examine how we got here, how the current seasons have gone, and where these programs go from here.
The Caleb Williams Effect
Caleb Williams, despite your opinion of him, was a tremendous college player. His 2022 Heisman-winning regular season culminated in a Pac-12 (RIP) Championship game versus Utah. Despite the loss, Lincoln Riley was not questioned. USC football was back…or so we thought.
Last year was up and (mostly) down for USC. USC finished 8-5 and their defense was atrocious. They gave up 40 or more points six times in 2023. They lost to UCLA by 18, and UCLA immediately lost their coach to Ohio State and their QB to Oregon.
In his two years at USC, Caleb Williams was responsible for 93 touchdowns in 26 games at USC. That’s 3.5 touchdowns a game. USC was ALWAYS going to find it hard to replace him.
Williams covered up a lot of USC’s issues on defense and perceived issues in recruiting. In those six games in which USC gave up at least 40 points, they were 3-3. That’s insane.
Replacing a talent like Williams was always going to be an uphill battle. Miller Moss looked like he was the answer, but after a 4-5 record, USC will turn to backup Jayden Maiava.
USC This Season and Where They Go From Here
As mentioned USC is 4-5. All five losses are by one score. Could Jayden Maiava be the answer to Lincoln Riley’s problems? Maybe, maybe not. Riley had a long leash for Moss due to his commitment to the program.
Moving into a new conference is a challenge. Especially when you’re traveling across time zones, something that will be new to all college programs. Riley hasn’t lost the locker room and the change at quarterback is an indication he’s not giving up on the season…unlike some programs have already.
There is a narrative floating around that USC hasn’t “recruited well,” since Riley arrived in Los Angeles. This is not true, at all. According to 24/7sports, since 2022, USC has had an overall ranking of 6 (2022), 7 (2023), 20 (2024), and 10 (2025) so far. The dip in 2024 notwithstanding, USC has been solid in recruiting. Nothing horrible like some have made it out to be.
Riley has too long of a contract that is too expensive for USC to get out of. If USC can turn some of those close losses into wins, then they’ll be fine going forward.
The only cause for concern with USC is losing Riley to the NFL. The media pressure in LA right now is hot and people are calling for him to lose his job. The natural fit would be with the Bears and Caleb Williams.
Oklahoma and The Brent Venables Experience
Oklahoma has had the reverse USC experience in their first two seasons under Venables. In their first season, they went 6-7 and 3-6 in conference. This is amazing considering how the Big 12 is consistently inconsistent.
The next year (2023), Oklahoma, led by Dillion Gabriel went 10-3 and beat Texas in the Red River Rivalry game. This momentum should’ve been carried into the SEC and led by Gabriel, Oklahoma would’ve had a veteran quarterback in big SEC games. That’s not how it worked out at all.
Gabriel transferred to Oregon and Oklahoma was taken over by hyped recruit Jackson Arnold. It hasn’t worked out at all. Arnold was benched in a loss against Tennessee and their offense has looked shaky the whole year.
There have been many injuries on the offensive side of the ball for Oklahoma, but they don’t have a signature SEC win so far. They only have an SEC win this year. Unlike USC who is playing in close games, Oklahoma hasn’t been playing in one-score games.
The problem is the offense for Oklahoma and look no further than Miami this season or Florida State last year to see how an offense can be fixed in an offseason.
Oklahoma’s SEC Outlook
Oklahoma’s problem is that the SEC is a bloodbath conference. They have far more depth than the Big Ten. Oklahoma doesn’t have a signature win on its schedule this season. Despite what LSU has looked like, USC’s opening-week win against them in Vegas is a signature win for the Trojans.
Oklahoma still could beat Bama or LSU in their last two games, but considering they just lost to Missouri’s backup QB, it’s unlikely.
The patience at college football programs has shrunken. Due to NIL, the transfer portal, and the playoffs, programs are more reactionary than ever. The SEC has and will continue to have the best collection of NIL collectives in the country. Oklahoma will be going up against massive boosters at other programs.
Oklahoma under Venables has recruited well, so it shouldn’t be a talent problem for them. However, Oklahoma will have to ace this offseason. Whether that means bringing in more offensive skill players, replacing the QB, or continuing to trust the ones you have, I don’t know.
Oklahoma’s schedule is tough next year. They’ll face the same teams they faced this season but in opposite venues. They also host Michigan in an early non-conference game.
Conclusion
Despite both USC and Oklahoma regressing, I don’t think either should fire their coach. It usually takes time to rebuild college programs. It took Jim Harbaugh seven years to get Michigan to the playoffs. These things take time and both programs should be patient.
Unfortunately, that’s not how these schools view it. If Venables doesn’t get Oklahoma to compete more in games, a la Billy Napier this year at Florida, then he’s probably gone. He would immediately be the most coveted defensive coordinator in the land and would get a multi-million dollar offer to coach defense.
Lincoln Riley and USC, for better or worse, are stuck with each other. Riley has a massive buyout that will keep him at USC for a couple more seasons. USC fans can sleep at night knowing that Riley has coached three Heisman trophy quarterbacks. All three have been the number one overall pick. Maybe Jayden Maiava is the next in line, if not USC will be an attractive destination for any transfer QB.
If you enjoyed “Oklahoma and USC are Going Backwards,” then check out Belly Up Sports! Follow me on Twitter/X @NikGable37
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