The Red Sox must ask themselves before any Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu trade, “Who will we miss more in 2025 and beyond?”
If Boston trades Duran, they will lose a multidimensional player, their offensive spark plug — a borderline star.
If the Sox trade Abreu, they will lose less offensively (right now) but a lot defensively.
Each player’s skillset helped the 2024 team overachieve, skillsets the Sox will surely miss moving forward.
Making the decision more complicated (easier?), both were 2024 American League Gold Glove Award finalists. Abreu won the award in right field.
Duran was also a Silver Slugger Award finalist.
Boston has six left-handed hitters on their 40-man roster, and three of the ‘Big Four’ are left-handed.
Having that many lefties in any lineup isn’t a recipe for success. Some of those lefties must go.
Among them, one of Duran or Abreu is the odd man out if Romany Anthony is untouchable.
There’s no easy answer for the Red Sox. It’s going to hurt no matter who they decide to move. (But remember: That’s not a bad thing. We’ve waited years for this organization to reach this point.)
Red Sox Jarren Duran Can Be Key Piece of Trade for 2025 Ace
Embed from Getty ImagesRed Sox outfielder Jarren Duran’s emergence as a borderline MLB star is awe-inspiring.
Duran found something at the plate after changing his swing for the first time during the 2019-20 offseason.
At the Alternate Training Site in 2020, he showed new-found power.
That power translated in-game at Triple-A in 2021, where he hit a then-career-high 16 home runs. He also raised his slugging percentage by 107 points and had a .873 OPS over 60 games.
Unfortunately, that did not translate to MLB.
Over 33 games with the Red Sox in 2021, Duran hit .215 with a .578 OPS, two home runs, four walks, and 40 strikeouts.
He kept tinkering with his swing, but nothing worked.
He continued tweaking his swing throughout 2022, but again nothing worked.
Jarren hit .221 with a .645 OPS, three home runs, 14 walks, and 63 strikeouts over 58 games.
Duran was still figuring out how to play center field four years after converting from second base in 2019.
Duran had -2 Outs Above Average and a -3 Fielding Run-Value in 2022. Between 2021-22 combined, he had -12 Defensive Runs Saved. His outfield jumps in 2022 were ok, but his routes were terrible.
After spring training work with Dustin Pedroia, advice from Jackie Bradley Jr., and a mindset change, things clicked for the then-26-year-old in 2023.
Jarren hit .295 with a .828 OPS and 121 OPS+. He had 34 doubles, eight home runs, 40 RBI, and 24 stolen bases. And he struck out 25 percent of the time and walked at a 6.6 percent clip.
He took the extra base 40 percent of the time, ranked 8th with four extra runs on the base paths, and amassed 7.2 baserunning runs.
The California native stuck with his swing instead of changing it when things got bad.
Defensively, Duran ranked in the 56th percentile in OAA (0), had -6 DRS and 1 FRV, and ranked in the 41st percentile in fielding value. He improved his jumps but still wasn’t taking great routes.
Duran was limited to 102 games due to a left toe injury sustained scaling the center field wall at Yankee Stadium in August.
2023 wasn’t a fluke. If anything, he got better in 2024.
Still sticking with his 2023 swing, Duran added a leg-kick mid-season that took his bat to another level.
He hit .285 with a .834 OPS and 129 OPS+. Duran had 21 home runs, drove in 75, and stole 34 bases. Jarren took the extra base at a 54 percent clip, added six extra runs on the bases, and amassed 8.4 baserunning runs.
He struck out 22 percent of the time and walked at a 7.4 percent clip.
Duran was Among the best players in MLB, not only among outfielders or only American League players.
His career year carried over to his defense, as he became one of the best outfielders in MLB,
Even in what was a historic season for him, Duran still beat himself up occasionally.
One argument for Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran being a trade piece for a potential 2025 Ace pitcher is his age and skill set.
Duran is 28, one of the best players in MLB, and will hit free agency in 2029. Speed is a big part of his game, but speedsters don’t necessarily age well.
Why not sell high on him, right? However, dynamic, athletic, multidimensional players like Jarren don’t come around often.
Wilyer Abreu a Good, Young, Valuable Player in His Own Right
Embed from Getty ImagesWilyer Abreu wasn’t just one of the best A.L. rookies or among the best rookie outfielders in MLB in 2024. He was one of the better rookies in MLB, regardless of position.
Abreu started only six of the Red Sox’s first 16 games and struggled.
He hit .231 with a .618 OPS, three walks, and 12 strikeouts in his first 11 games.
Over his next 42 games, Abreu hit .280 with a .868 OPS. He had 12 doubles, six home runs, and 20 RBI with 16 walks and 37 strikeouts.
Abreu missed the next 19 games after spraining his right ankle when he slipped on the dugout steps.
The 25-year-old’s next two weeks were slow going before he went off again over his next 39 games.
Over that span, the Venezuela native hit .297 with a .941 OPS, seven home runs, 27 RBI, 11 walks, and 36 strikeouts.
Abreu struggled in September like everybody else in the Red Sox lineup.
Abreu finished 2024 with a .255 batting average, .781 OPS, and 114 OPS+. He hit 33 doubles and 15 home runs, drove in 58, and stole eight bases. He had a 48 percent extra bases taken rate and ranked in the 82nd percentile of baserunning run value.
Boston’s rookie right fielder struck out 28 percent of the time and walked at a 9 percent clip.
Wilyer’s bat ranked in the 64th percentile of batting run value.
When he did make contact, he hit the ball hard and for slug. He took his walks and still showed some of the plate discipline he showed in 2023. The whiffs, especially in the zone, were more apparent in 2024, and he chased more.
Abreu has basically been the offensive player he an anwas advertised to be at the time of the trade. That’s understandable for a player with less than one year of service time.
Wilyer almost exclusively faced right-handed batters last year, struggling mightily vs. lefties when he did face them.
Defensively, the Red Sox rookie lefty ranked in the 90th percentile of fielding run value and had 7 OAA (91st percentile) and 17 DRS.
Abreu, who loved to show off his arm, ranked in the 95th percentile of arm value and the 98th percentile of arm strength (95 mph).
Wilyer was the first Red Sox rookie since 1975 and the third to win a Gold Glove Award.
Wilyer Abreu was one-half of the return of the Christian Vazquez trade, which didn’t go over well in the 2022 Red Sox clubhouse. It was a move that made the Chaim Bloom haters hate him even more than they already had.
But look where we are now. Abreu was one of the league’s best rookies last season, won a Gold Glove Award, and is a prime trade candidate — and few want him traded.
There’s a case, though, for the Red Sox, like Jarren Duran, to trade Wilyer Abreu for a significant 2025 upgrade.
Abreu is younger, and he has one more year of team control. Wilyer’s game doesn’t revolve around speed; instead, it’s about power, slug, plate discipline, baserunning, and defense. Those attributes likely age better in the long term.
What team wouldn’t want him?
The above might make Abreu more replaceable. It’s a case to keep him, too.
However, the Red Sox don’t need to make a Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu trade before the 2025-26 offseason. They can get what they need for next year in other ways.
Featured Image Credit: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
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