The college football playoff will decide the National Champion. People forget that. People are mad about the byes, scheduling, the bracket, and who they thought killed Kennedy. Okay, maybe not the last one. But overall, college football fans are upset about many different things. Analysts keep saying “we ” when discussing changes. There is nothing I can do about changing the playoff, so please stop saying “we.” Despite having 12 teams, not all of them can win the national championship. Sorry, Indiana fans. I will sort each of these teams into tiers.
Happy to be Here Tier
This tier consists of teams that weren’t expected to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Whatever the outcome of their games, their fan bases will be happy they made it. A national championship is not in their future.
Arizona State
No one thought Arizona State would go from being a 3-9 program in the Pac-12 to the winner of the Big 12. Lots of credit is due to Kenny Dillingham who is a rising head coach and running back Cam Skattebo.
Unlike some teams in the playoff, Arizona State has faced real competition this season. They have wins over BYU and Iowa State, both of whom made the final top 25 playoff ranking.
The biggest problem with Arizona State is that they are on the tough side of the bracket. If Texas wins, they will go up against a defense that flies around, hits hard, and is unlike anything they’ve seen in the Big 12. Surviving Texas would be a miracle, but it would also lead to playing an explosive offense like Tennessee/Ohio State/Oregon. It’s hard to imagine ASU pulling upset after upset.
Indiana
At Notre Dame…at night. Based on eyeball evidence, Indiana won’t be able to cope with that environment. Indiana crushed teams this season, which is great. The problem is none of the teams they faced were any good.
The Hoosiers were a product of realignment, and a bloated conference that allowed certain teams to not have to face any of the so-called “big boys”. This should in no way diminish the Hoosiers season and first-year head coach Curt Cignetti’s accomplishments. They are on the correct path as a program and are the definition of “happy to be here”.
The Hoosiers, like the Sun Devils, do have a tough path ahead if they can pull an upset. A neutral-site matchup against Georgia would see them as at least two touchdown underdogs.
SMU
After being placed in the ACC Championship game with only a number 8 next to their name, SMU was sweating. A loss by a lot could’ve and should’ve seen them tossed out of the playoff. However, they lost by a last-second field goal.
Like Indiana, SMU didn’t beat anyone of significance. Their two games against ranked teams were losses. Their most impressive win came against Louisville, who finished with eight wins.
SMU is a newcomer to the ACC and should feel proud of where they are heading for the future. Their NIL is massive and they’re located in Dallas, which is an underrated city.
SMU was the closest team in this tier to not being in this tier. If they beat Penn State, their path opens up a bit to the final four. However, it’s hard to imagine a team that hasn’t had a true road test all year to go into Happy Valley and pull off an upset. Even if James Franklin is coaching on the other side.
That One Guy Tier
This tier is reserved for teams that would be in the previous tier if it weren’t for one guy.
Clemson
Dabo Swinney, Clemson’s head coach, has won two national championships. Despite Clemson not being able to beat either of the two SEC teams they faced this season, they tripped backward, somersaulted, and did a kickflip into the playoffs.
On the road against Texas should be a death sentence. However, Texas is a weird one this season, they’ve passed the eye test, and they have a lot of dudes. Despite all this, Texas hasn’t had a single win against a currently ranked team.
Clemson is playing with house money and so is Dabo. His philosophy of not taking transfer portal guys is crazy, but Dabo does it his way. Maybe Dabo has one more memorable run in him.
Boise State
If there was ever a team that perfectly fit this tier it was Boise State. Ashton Jeanty is averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He is 837 yards ahead of the next-highest rusher. Jeanty has 29 touchdowns and is 131 yards away from breaking Barry Sanders’s single-season rushing record.
Jeanty and Boise State have the best chance to be a “Cinderella,” in the first edition of the expanded playoff. Boise State will know what it’s like to face 7 or 8 defenders around the line of scrimmage.
If Jeanty can stack historic rushing performance after historic rushing performance, then Boise State could pull off the unthinkable.
Almost-There Tier
This tier is reserved for the teams that are just behind the main contenders. For one reason or another, they don’t have an air-tight case for me to put them in the favorites tier. These teams winning it all would be a surprise, but not a shock like the teams in the previous two tiers.
Tennessee
I wanted to be trendy and put Tennessee in the next tier. Tennessee has an elite defensive line, an elite running back, and an always-improving quarterback.
Despite this, the Volunteers fell flat in their only true road test of the season. They lost to Georgia in November and didn’t score a single point in the second half of the game. Casuals will view Tennessee as an offensive juggernaut. This is not the case.
Tennessee needs to win games by allowing less than 20 points. Their defense could carry them to a title, but beating Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Georgia all in a row is unlikely.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame has had a tremendous season. After a silly early season loss to Northern Illinois, they’ve only played in one, one-score game. A dominant team that is built in the trenches and wins the line of scrimmage. A common theme among most teams in this tier is this: “Have they beat anyone.”
It is hard to pick a team to win the national championship when we haven’t seen them win any games against a team ranked in the top 20.
Can Notre Dame beat Indiana? Sure. Can they then travel to New Orleans with a pro-Georgia crowd and beat Georgia? No.
A win against Indiana and a close loss to Georgia would signal a step in the right direction for Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman.
Penn State
I’m sorry, but losing to Oregon by eight, and Ohio State by a seven isn’t evidence you can WIN big games. Penn State is right there with talent on offense and defense, but you have to win these big games.
Penn State has an “easy,” road to the final four. But do they? They’ve struggled against mid-tier teams such as Illinois, Wisconsin, and USC. SMU and Boise State are certainly in that category.
Penn State has a solid team with a creative offense and stout defense. The problem is their wide receivers aren’t elite and their coach hasn’t proved he can win big games. It’s as simple as that.
Ohio State
Oh boy, this will anger some Buckeyes fans, but let me explain. The last time we saw Ohio State they were getting manhandled at the line of scrimmage and didn’t trust their quarterback against a 6-5 team that was missing their two best players.
Are the Buckeyes mentally broken? Maybe, but we also saw the Buckeyes lose to Michigan in 2022, only to follow it up with an incredible performance against eventual champions Georgia.
However, C.J. Stroud is not walking through those doors. Stroud threw for 41 touchdowns that season, and current Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard has thrown for 27.
Howard is not enough of a game manager to get the Buckeyes through four tough games. The Buckeyes have the talent to win it all, but just don’t have the mental capacity to do it.
The Texas Tier
The Longhorns get their tier because of how dominant their defense is and how they are one of the contenders. Despite this, they cannot beat Georgia, who seem to have their number this season.
It’s not a guarantee that they’d face Georgia if they made it to the final, but the Dawgs are the favorite to make it out of their side of the bracket.
Whatever has happened to Quinn Ewers this season needs to be fixed and fixed quickly. He may still be carrying various injuries with him, which makes people yearn for Arch Manning instead of Ewers at quarterback.
However, Ewers deserves credit for playing through these injuries. He is tough as nails and has handled everything around the Longhorns this season well.
The Texas defense is the best or second-best in the country. They have speed, elite safeties, and run a great scheme. Their defense could carry them all the way…as long as they don’t face Georgia in the final.
The Favorites Tier
This was the tier I wanted to protect. I didn’t want to lump a bunch of teams in this tier because only two teams all season have proved they can be in this tier.
Georgia and Oregon have a combined seven wins against playoff teams. I’m counting Texas twice for Georgia. A Georgia versus Oregon matchup would be ideal, but with the new format, we may not get it.
Oregon
Wow, they are fast. Oregon can run the football and with speedster wide receiver Tez Johnson, they can chuck it deep too.
Oregon has a great coach who, after not winning the “big games,” his first two seasons at Oregon has done just that in his third season in Eugene. Led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Ducks have an elite college quarterback with tons of experience leading them. Oregon can outscore any team in the country and get timely stops on defense.
The problem facing Oregon is its path. It could include Tennessee/Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia in the final.
I value the bye more than most and Oregon only having to win two games before the final is a huge advantage, despite the road being tough.
Georgia
Georgia has faced the toughest schedule in the country. This is not a guess, but a fact. The next closest playoff team is Texas, at 20. The Dawgs have had a tough season and been in a lot of close games. Their starting quarterback, Carson Beck entered the year viewed as a first-round pick. With 12 interceptions, several bad halves of football, and an injury on a hail-mary attempt later, the Bulldogs don’t have to worry about Beck.
It’s still unclear if Beck will be ready to play in any playoff game, but backup Gunner Stockton looked good in relief.
Despite offensive troubles, the Bulldogs are built on their defense. Like Texas, they fly around and make plays on defense. Kirby Smart, Georgia’s head coach, is a terrific in-game coach. It would be more of a surprise if Georgia didn’t make it to the final versus if they did.
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