Hey, fight fans! DJ with the High Low Sports Podcast here, and boy, do we have some wild developments to unpack for the first pay-per-view of 2025. It is already throwing us curveballs, but don’t worry – we’ve got you covered with the latest UFC 311 main card predictions and best bets that’ll keep you ahead of the game.
Main Event Madness
Just when we thought we had it all figured out, the MMA gods decided to spice things up. What was supposed to be Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan is now looking at Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano as our headliner after Arman injured his back and neck during the weight cut, somehow. I’m guessing the weight cut may have caused the back to seize up or something unusual.
Main Card Breakdown
Kicking off the UFC 311 PPV, we have Kevin Holland taking on Reiner de Ridder or RDR. Holland is always game, and we know he’s gonna talk his trash every time, but RDR is no joke. With 16 finishes out of 18 wins, RDR’s submission game is legit. Plus he is a big boy for the division. I think the Dutch Knight will get this fight to the ground and find a way to pick up the W in his sophomore UFC fight.
Best Bet: Reiner Moneyline -122
Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac
The odds are heavily in Almeida’s favor, and for good reason. If you’re feeling like as close to a sure thing as we find in this crazy sport, take that -470 for Almeida. Spivac is game on the ground, with 8 submission wins to his name, but Almeida is a force of nature. The point spread is -7.5, which is insane for a 5-round fight, let alone a 3-round affair. Almeida continues his climb up the heavyweight ladder.
Best Bet: Almeida to win by KO/TKO/DQ +275
Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
I feel like this is the most one-sided fight on the card as far as who the fans want to win. Jiri not only shaved his iconic hairstyle ahead of UFC 311 to show support for a fan battling cancer, he is donating $50,000 to oncologist patients and bringing the fan to the event. In addition, Jamahal Hill has been on a run of getting some hate and backlash from the fan base following the loss to champ Alex Pereira. This is a razor-close fight, with both coming off tough losses to Alex, but I’m going to lean slightly towards Hill on this one. I know Jiri said he was going to be smarter with his defense and keeping his hands up, but I need to see it to believe it. I think Hill will be more technically sound and maybe even mix it up a bit more.
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds -175
Co-Main Event Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
This is where things get interesting for me. Merab is the champion on an 11-fight winning streak with several top 10 and top 5 victories to his name, including 4-straight former champions. Yet, he is a +210 underdog to undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Umar is legit, sitting at 18-0 and coming off his biggest win against, at the time, #2 ranked Cory Sandhagen. That is his only win of note so far, and I think Merab is going to present a whole different set of issues for the prodigy out of Dagestan. I’m all in on the Georgian grinder putting on the pace and dragging this one to deep waters. I feel like this fight is all but assured of going to a decision, so the point spread and the money line for Merab look great.
Best Bet: Merab covers +5.5 spread -125
Main Event Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
Not the main event we wanted, or the one we needed, but the one we got. Shout out to Renato for immediately saying yes to the fight and his epic statement at the ceremonial weigh-ins. On the flip side, you almost feel for Islam. He can’t just seem to have a normal title defense against the top-ranked lightweights. That being said, unless Moicano catches lightning in a bottle, I expect it to be a long night for him. Islam is a whopping -1475 favorite with a -5.5 point spread.
Best Bet: Islam wins by submission -115
This is our UFC 311 main card predictions and best bets. If you decide to parlay all the best bets together, you’re looking at wild +3508 odds. The first PPV of the year is shaping up to be a wild ride. From last-minute main event changes to interesting underdog odds, there’s plenty of action to keep us on our toes. Remember, in the fight game, anything can happen – that’s what makes it so damn exciting.
So, whether you’re riding with Makhachev or taking a chance on Moicano, betting the house on Merab or playing it safe with some props, make sure you’re tuned in for what promises to be an unforgettable night of fights.
Remember, whether you’re in it for the thrill of the game or the potential payout, responsible betting is key. Set your limits, only bet what you can afford to lose, and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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