While both New Zealand and South Africa have won three Rugby World Cup crowns, the All Blacks have a record 49 tournament victories to their name ahead of the 2023 iteration.
This makes NZ the single most successful side in RWC history, while the iconic All Blacks were on course for a fourth title after posting a record-extending 18th consecutive win in Japan 2019. However, they were upset by beaten finalists England in the semis, and have since embarked on a challenging period of transition.
However, they remain a side for the big occasion and are currently priced as the second favorite to prevail in 2023 (behind host nation France). But can they really win the RWC, and what’s their likely path to the final?
The NZ Resurgence – And What it Means for the Tournament
Embed from Getty ImagesSince Ian Foster became the All Blacks’ head coach in 2019, the side have endured a number of historical firsts. Most of these have been wholly negative too, most notably seismic home defeats to Ireland and Argentina last year.
The All Blacks’ record of four test losses through 2022 was also their most in a calendar year since 1998, but it should be noted that despite this immense turbulence, NZ have retained all of their key trophies under Foster’s stewardship (including the Bledisloe Cup, the Freedom Cup, and three successive SANZAAR championships).
What’s more, the side appears to have turned a corner after a seven-game unbeaten run and a significant upturn in form during the second half of last year. They also played the best and most fluent rugby of Foster’s difficult reign during this period, as talented assistants Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt began to exert their influence.
Two stylish wins over Australia last September certainly showcased the All Blacks’ trademark pace and power, while consecutive victories against Japan, Wales, and Scotland preceded a competitive draw against England at Twickenham.
This run of form, coupled with New Zealand’s immense World Cup pedigree and individual quality, arguably justifies the team’s status as second favorites (even ahead of world number one side Ireland).
Can NZ Win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
Embed from Getty ImagesThe latest New Zealand rugby news revealed that Foster has named five uncapped players in his 36-man training squad, namely Cam Roigard, Dallas McLeod, Emoni Narawa, Samipeni Finau, and Tamaiti Williams.
This youthful promise is offset by the selection of captain Sam Cane, with the influential 31-year-old flanker Sam Cane now back to full fitness after missing the tail end of the 2022 Test campaign through injury.
As for the draw, NZ will start the tournament in Pool C, kicking off the tournament on September 8th in a mouth-watering clash with hosts France in Saint-Denis. They’re widely fancied to qualify for the quarterfinals, of course, but the result at the Stade de France will ultimately dictate whether they finish first or second.
Regardless, a QF clash against Ireland or South Africa will most likely await, and NZ will be confident of beating both sides despite losing three of their last four clashes against the Wolfhounds since November 2021. After all, Ireland have always struggled to perform consistently in the RWC knockout stages, while NZ have a good record against South Arica and can deploy a hard-running attacking game to put the Springboks on the back foot.
Once into the last four, few would bet against New Zealand prevailing, but one enduring concern is the team’s struggle to perform consistently for 80 minutes and see out games. The defeat against Argentina saw the All Blacks surrender an 18-12 lead with barely half an hour to play, for example, while the Three Lions roared back from a 25-6 deficit to draw in November.
These defeats were inspired by fatigue and a porous bench performance, with New Zealand struggling to find a balanced or high-quality selection of substitutes of late. Make no mistake; closing out matches at the highest level requires balance and depth, while the inability to use all 23 players is considered a weakness in the modern game. So, reliable and talented reserves like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will be crucial in France, as selecting the right squad and selecting it well could ultimately make the difference between success and failure for the All Blacks this autumn.
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