“Truth suffers from too much analysis”-Frank Herbert. Let’s look at the facts, not a projection or spreadsheet numbers, but just the truth. Now that Manchester United has hired a new manager, I struggle with analyzing and projecting how good he will be. Mainly because their most recent manager, Erik ten Hag, was supposed to return United to the glory days, according to yours truly.
Manchester United officially hired Rúben Amorim on Friday, November 1st. Amorim is Portuguese and has been the manager of Sporting Club in Portugal since March 2020. He has won two Portuguese leagues and three Portuguese league cups. Amorim was at Braga before Sporting hired him, and paid Braga 10 million euros to make him their coach in March 2020. Four and a half years later, Manchester United is paying 11 million euros to hire him. Time is a flat circle.
Erik ten Hag joined Manchester United being hailed as “the next big thing,” in coaching. His Ajax teams played beautiful attacking football. Rúben Amorim is being hailed as “the next big thing,” in coaching. His Sporting are defensively solid and have a firm identity with their 3-4-3 formation.
Whatever the result of Amorim’s time at Manchester United, it’s fair to wonder if there is an actual surefire way to hire a great manager, or if it’s dumb luck.
The Process of Hiring Amorim
On Sunday, October 27th, Manchester United lost to West Ham 2-1. The following day ten Hag was sacked. Amorim was identified in the immediate aftermath and contacts were made. United showed a willingness to pay his 10 million euro release clause and 1 million more to take his staff with him.
Amorim will remain at Sporting due to the release clause stating he has a 30-day waiting period for Sporting to find a new coach. Amorim will remain at Sporting for a few games and then take over Manchester United after the November international break.
Manchester United quickly moved for Amorim, and it is clear that he was their first choice. Due to respect, kindness, or whatever, United isn’t bringing in Amorim right away. This is weird, but also fair if Manchester United wants to raid Sporting for their best players over the summer. I’m looking directly at Viktor Gyökeres.
Looking back on how United decided on ten Hag back in the early summer of 2022, a concern emerges. In an ESPN article by Mark Ogden detailing how Manchester United selected ten Hag, other names are mentioned. The article discussed how United pursued some managers at the time who were already employed but didn’t have exit clauses.
Despite how long it takes, identifying Amorim as your first choice and getting him is a positive. It’s not ideal bringing in a manager nine Premier League games into the season, but it’s essentially a free hit for Amorim.
There should’ve been more concern over ten Hag being A choice for manager, not the FIRST choice.
What Amorim Brings to Manchester United
First and most importantly, Amorim brings an identity. It was hard to describe how Manchester United played football under ten Hag. Different lineups and strategies led to a stir-fry of identities that never blossomed.
Amorim will show up to Manchester United and play 3-4-3. Does Amorim have the players to play this formation and system? No, but that’s what coaching is for.
Amorim’s greatest quality is his system, which will also present a tough challenge. Amorim could mold some young players into wing-backs. Manchester United have a great academy and Amorim could take a couple of those youngsters and hit them with a position change.
This won’t be an easy transition for Manchester United’s players, who, for the most part, have never played in a back-three system. Amorim has never played another system in his coaching career. If he fails to adapt his system or fit the players into it, he will not succeed.
The Premier League Problem
The Premier League is hard. Especially for managers. Off the pitch with transfers, every club in the world knows how much money you have. It’s hard to get transfers over the line, and your transfer targets can’t be absolute.
Amorim has proved at Sporting that he can work in a set-up with a technical director. This is positive.
What’s not positive is that the Premier League’s actual coaching and tactics are really hard. The best managers under the most pressure in the world are coaching against you. The clubs have the best data analysts and tactic analysts money can buy to analyze opposing teams’ performance.
Amorim will have to evolve his system or transform United’s players to fit his system if he’s going to succeed. Premier League managers are often “found out,” after going up against clubs more than once.
Roberto De Zerbi, Patrick Viera, and Olivier Glasnow (somewhat) were figured out by opposing coaches. Erik ten Hag never had a different approach to the game, and it cost him.
Conclusion
If Rúben Amorim can devise different tactical approaches, oversee a squad restructuring, and get the best out of average players, then he will succeed at Manchester United. Good luck.
Most managers get sacked. Most football managers are lucky if they’re at a club for five years. It is more likely than not that Amorim will be considered a failure by the time he’s done at Manchester United.
They are the most successful English side and have expectations that go through their broken roof. If Amorim succeeds at Manchester United, he will be remembered as one of the all-time great managers. That is the duality of coaching Manchester United.
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