Ugly Winners: Why Has Everyone Cooled on the Chiefs?

Now that we are in the final stretch of the NFL regular season, fans and pundits can get serious with their Super Bowl predictions. At this point, those Power Rankings articles tend to feel a little more weighty, as the teams at the top have proven themselves over an extended period. At this point, you’ll know the teams at the top of those lists: The Lions, Bills, Eagles, and, of course, the Chiefs. 

The Chiefs are perhaps the most curious of all the teams considered Super Bowl contenders at this point in the season. The team started the season as clear favorites for the Super Bowl and an unprecedented “three-peat” into the bargain. And, they have done what was expected – win. They have secured their Playoff place with room to spare. This allows Andy Reid to keep players fresh for January if he chooses. 

Yet, despite going 11-1 after 12 games and holding the best record in the NFL for the majority of the season, the Chiefs found themselves in the strange position of seeing their Super Bowl odds rise. They’ve also tumbled down the Power Rankings among several broadcasters’ websites. They sit about 4^th on average as we pass through Week 14. It’s quite incredible. 

Chiefs have left little margin for error with victories 

Or is it? If you’ve followed the Chiefs this season, you’ll know that the issue is simple – they’ve won without looking impressive. Some experts have crunched the numbers. They found that of the 34 NFL teams since 1970 that, like the Chiefs, went 11-1 over their first 12 games, the Chiefs have the lowest points differential (+54). In short, this team only scrapes its victories. That has led some to believe that they will be found out eventually. 

And yet, you can make a counterargument to say that Reid’s team knows how to win ugly. Moreover, they know how to win efficiently. The Chiefs are actually an interesting team when it comes to live betting on the NFL, as they can clearly scratch out a score when they need to. Some might call them lucky, but others will see a champion’s mentality. Great sports teams of recent years – the Patriots of the 2000s and 2010s, the Golden State Warriors of the backend of last decade – had a similar knack for winning when not playing well. 

Sportsbooks keep some faith with reigning champions

Of course, we should point out that the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds have not fallen that dramatically. Sportsbooks aren’t stupid, and they must also rely on statistical facts. Those facts see the Chiefs en route to the Playoffs with a fair chance of the AFC No.1 Seed position. They’ve already beaten several of the opponents whom they may meet on the way to the Super Bowl, including the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos. Much was made of their defeat to the Bills, yet it is worth remembering that the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season last year and the year before; it didn’t stop them from winning two Super Bowls. 

In the end, it is difficult to ignore the fact that the Chiefs have not looked like a dominant team. Some believe the team’s experience will carry them over the line again in the Playoffs, especially when they face teams that may lack that bit of nous. Others think that the Chiefs will simply move out of second gear when it matters in January and, perhaps, February. 

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens. It has become almost – for want of a better term – fashionable to predict their demise. Yet, Andy Reid has built a team that simply knows how to win. We won’t judge them until we see them in the Playoffs. Even if they lose a few more times before the end of the regular season, Reid will have his men believing that they will come out on top when it counts. Whether that gets them over the line or not remains to be seen. 

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