Coming to you live, on a Saturday afternoon from half way around the world, is another UFC Card, that on paper is a little underwhelming. UFC 242.
Upon closer look though, there are a few fights that should have fight fans salivating. I will look at a few matchups, and highlight those I have interest in as well as give you what I believe are safer money bets…and a few upset picks….why not?!
(Champ) Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. (Interim champ) Dustin Poirier
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Khabib vs Poirier is a fight that has been in the making for a while, and it is finally here. There has been
very little buzz, because Khabib is expected to win, and is a big betting favorite. Oh, and neither guy is really the trash talking type…which we all know sells in the UFC.
Khabib needs to win and act like a Champion, instead of doing what he did the last time we saw him in a cage…..jumping out of that cage and going after guys in the crowd….UGLY.
The guy is a merciless wrestler. A go forward, pin you down and not let you up kind of guy, who will then work for a sub or just try to beat up his opponent. This has worked in every instance he’s had a
professional fight, he is 27-0 and he is looking to keep that 0 at all costs.
Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier is a wrestler himself hailing from Louisiana. Tough as nails and on an absolutely fantastic run of his own as of late. I have watched him become a Champion in the UFC, and make no mistake, his “interim” status is not a fluke. Beating Max Holloway to get that belt was no small feat, and this guy has every intention of taking that 0 away from Khabib on Saturday.
Dustin has a great amount of output in the cage and pours it on early and often. He is also a decent
defensive fighter, dishing out just about 2 strikes a minute over what he absorbs. The problem here is,
Khabib is amazing as a defensive fighter. He delivers almost a 3 to 1 strike landed to strike taken.
Khabib’s wrestling may be somewhat negated here by Dustin because that is also Dustin’s base,
although he has evolved into a much more explosive striker and finisher and veered away from that
wrestling base in his evolution as a UFC fighter. If this fight goes to the ground, it goes the distance, and Khabib will be the undisputed champ of the division again once again.
I believe Khabib wins it. Although I can absolutely see Dustin swarming Khabib early and finding a finish… If it gets past the 2nd…I don’t think Poirier can win in the later rounds. I’d love to see Poirier win it, and he is a very live underdog, and worth taking a flier on for sure.
But…my pick? Khabib.
Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder
Now this fight is a fight I am genuinely excited about! Edson Barboza is one of the very best strikers to
ever put on the UFC gloves. The guy can mow down and break down opponents with fists and kicks that flat out disable an opponents ability to stand. He has all the “high-flying spinning attacks” as well, and the guy is flat out fun to watch. He may also be a little bit past his prime, and heading towards gatekeeper status in the division.
Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder is a less championed version of Barboza, who has lost to Barboza years
ago in a fight that was amazing until a brutally bad illegal low blow. It was accidental, but absolutely
affected the outcome of that fight. Felder hasn’t been the same since then.
The Irish Dragon, Philly guy and all around great fight commentator as well, can also do it all in the cage. Fists of granite, kicks like a mule and a round-house or two when you least expect it.
This fight is going to end up with who can withstand the kicks of the other and who’s chin holds up. I
don’t believe this” goes to the ground unless someone is in real trouble. This one could turn into a “Fight of the Year” candidate.
With a win, Felder is thrust into serious contention…but I think the Philly guy gets it done in the rematch.
My pick: Paul Felder, The Irish Dragon
Islam Makhachev vs. Davi Ramos
Makhachev is a teammate of Nurmagomedov, and is positioned on this fight care as a large favorite. He has been fighting in the UFC since 2015 but it doesn’t feel that way to me. He is more well-rounded than a lot of fighters, with power in his hands and an ability to search for and snag submissions. He has some notable names on his record as well, in Gleison Tibau and Nick Lentz, but he isn’t exactly on a stars trajectory. More of a slow burn.
Davi Ramos is a Brazilian jujitsu fighter who would love to get this fight to the ground and work for a
submission. I think that would be difficult considering Islam’s wrestling abilities, but none-the-less is usually the mindset of Ramos.
I believe this fight goes the way the oddsmakers have it set, which is Makhachev getting the W.
My pick: Islam Makhachev
Joanne Calderwood vs. Andrea Lee
This ladies matchup is interesting because it feels like a possible gatekeeper situation with Calderwood. If a fighter can get past JoJo, she is a true contender. If she cannot…pretender. JoJo has skills and good size for the division. She can win fights in multiple ways and has done so, but isn’t especially slick in any one area of her game and is coming off a disappointing loss.
Andrea Lee has had a lot to deal with in her personal life recently, but when it comes to the UFC Cage,
she continues to get wins. She has yet to record a finish in the UFC, winning all her fights by decision.
I highly doubt this match ends in any way other than a decision, and on the cards, I would favor Andrea ‘KGB’ Lee.
Lee is the more promising fighter at this point, but JoJo cannot be counted out just yet. Her back is
against the wall, and she has zero quit in her. She’ll make Lee work for everything, but ultimately, I feel
Andrea Lee gets the win with better footwork and an ability to stick and move a little better than JoJo.
My pick: Andrea Lee
Belal Muhammed Vs Takashi Sato
Muhammad is a fighter with promise and a guy who is extremely tough, but he has not been much of a
finisher in his UFC career. He wins via decision.
Sato, is a Pancrase veteran, and won his UFC debut vs a no-longer-prime Ben Saunders via
TKO.
Expect this fight to depend heavily on positioning. If Sato can get Muhammad down and ground and pound him at any point the fight, Sato gets the W. On the other hand, if Muhammad can keep things
standing and take it the distance, I like Belal’s chances in that type of a fight simply outpointing Sato.
Belal has one bad habit that he should look at changing…he gets hit almost as often as he hits others…in general, that only works for a little while, unless you have finishing power, or an absolute iron chin. So far, Muhammad’s chin has held up. I am not so sure it does so on the 7th.
I’m going with the upset in this one…
My pick: Takashi Sato
Smart Money Picks
- Khabib Nurmagomedov
- Curtis Blades
- Islam Makhachev
- Andrea Lee
Underdogs With A Chance/Long Shots
- Zak Cummings
- Takashi Sato
- Paul Felder
Follow me on Twitter @davefry04.
