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Last season, a beat-up Portland Trail Blazers found themselves, after fighting through major injuries, in the Western Conference Finals. CJ McCollum, Rodney Hood, and Damian Lillard had some of the most memorable moments in the entire postseason. Who could forget McCollum’s 41 points in the quadruple overtime thriller? What about Rodney Hood, who had barely played in the series, scoring 7 of the Blazers last 9 points in that 68-minute thriller? And of course, Damian Lillard hit the shot that ended the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise as we knew it. Understandably, the Blazers had high hopes for this season… But after a tough season, they enter the Orlando Bubble on the outside of the playoff looking in.
But are they locked into that spot? What’s in store for the Portland Pinwheels as they head to the “Happiest Place on Earth?”
Evidently, they don’t plan on just playing eight games. Early on in the process of planning an NBA restart, Damian Lillard was clear about not wanting to just go play for no reason.
“If we come back and they’re just like, ‘we’re adding a few games to finish the regular season,’ and they’re throwing us out there for meaningless games and we don’t have a true opportunity to get into the playoffs, I’m going to be with my team because I’m a part of the team. But I’m not going to be participating. I’m telling you that right now,” Lillard told Yahoo Sports in May. So, if Lillard is suiting up he thinks they have a chance… but do they?
They certainly have a better chance than they did in mid-March, just from having the time to heal their roster. Yes, veteran swingman Trevor Ariza is sitting out of the restart by choice, but seven-footer Jusuf Nurkic plans to make his return. The Bosnian Beast broke his leg in a gruesome manner in March of 2019, and was planning on trying to come back last March. With the extended time, Nurkic looks to be in even better shape.
Joining him in the frontcourt will be the 6’11” Zach Collins. Collins had shoulder surgery in November and was still not back when the season paused in March.
So they lose a wing but gain two bigs. What does that do to their odds? Could we see a lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Collins, and Nurkic? With Hassan Whiteside off of the bench? And is that gigantic lineup going to be in good enough shape right out of the gates? Carmelo sure seems to have lost weight… So let’s see what’s in front of them :
Based on current win-loss records, the Blazers have the toughest schedule of any team trying to get into the playoffs. They face an uphill battle and have to play Boston, Houston, Denver, the Clippers, and Philadelphia in a seven-day window. That’s a string of five games against teams that Las Vegas has in the best seven in the league.
To have any sort of a shot at forcing a playoff for the eight-seed, Portland has to beat Memphis, Dallas, and Brooklyn. That would be 3 wins. Then, if they can go 2-3 against that rough stretch, they’d settle at 5-3. 5-3 may be enough to force a playoff for the 8-seed, depending on how New Orleans and Memphis play. Under the same metric, New Orleans has the easiest schedule of any team in the bubble, and Memphis currently occupies the coveted eight-seed.
That said, if Portland can force the playoff with Memphis and/or New Orleans, they match up very well with both. Their backcourt tandem will be vital, but neither team has that kind of 1-2 punch. Memphis has role players around Morant, but the rookie carries a lot of the offense (26% usage rate). The Pelicans are more diverse in how they can score but are even younger across the board. And neither features two guards capable of going for 40 on a given night. The advantage in the backcourt would go to the Portland Trail Blazers in any sort of play in tournament.
AND IF THEY CAN GET IN as the eighth seed… they actually match up well with the LA Lakers, the current number one seed. They could force a long series, especially with their healthy returning roster. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will put a lot of pressure on the Lakers backcourt, and new additions like JR Smith and Dion Waiters aren’t the same defensive presence as the absent Avery Bradley. Without homecourt advantage who knows what could happen?
(But to be fair, the Lakers would be a very tough first-round matchup for anyone. That is a “glass is half full” approach, even if you think it’s a “glass half full” of horse spit.)
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS BUBBLE RECORD PROJECTION: 4-4; loses in 8th seed playoff
Continue to check out Belly Up Sports in the coming days for previews for every NBA team going to the Orlando bubble. Follow me on Twitter @painsworth512 for more, and give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts!
