What kind of story can an NFL players opportunities tell about their weeks to come in daily fantasy football? The first week of the NFL season is always a tough one to predict.
How will the rookies look emerging into the NFL? What will backfield utilization look like across the league? Which wide receivers will be a quarterback’s favorite target?
The purpose of this article is to take a look at what kind of opportunities (rushing attempts and targets) we saw from different players in week 1 and figure out how we can use this information to influence how we select our rosters on DraftKings in week 2 on the NFL Main Slate.
I am going to highlight 3 types of players: those with high volume and high points, those with low volume and high points, and those with high volume and low points. I chose to look at the players in this way because it can help us to predict what type of players these guys can be.
If a player is getting heavily featured in his offense, we typically expect him to be able to have those big point games; your high volume high point players. These guys are the workhorses and are typically priced as such. Then we look at the players who had an explosive week in DraftKings points, but got it done on a limited number of opportunities. These are the risky players that we need to look at to see if they are the real deal or just had a good week. Finally, there are the players who saw big volume but did not have the fantasy production that we expected them to have. These are the guys that we really want to look at because if we expect them to continue to be getting these types of opportunities they can prove to be a great steal when constructing your roster.
High Volume-High Points
Alvin Kamara ($9500 on DraftKings)- Kamara was the leading running back in DraftKings points in an explosive game. He also had 20 opportunities (8 rush 12 targets) which isn’t the highest when it comes to opportunities. I think he will once again be good this week but will he be worth the premium price tag?
Michael Thomas (8600)- Another guy on the same team. He was targeted like crazy (17) and caught nearly 100% of them (16). He is another guy I expect to see drop a little in volume and points, but will still be a viable play this weekend.
James Conner (6700)- The new golden child in Pittsburg, James Conner helped a lot of people make some money last week. He had 37 opportunities for 38.2 points in 5 quarters of NFL action at a deep discount. This week you won’t quite have the same savings so he is starting to feel like a fade for me. Let everyone else chase the points and I’ll spend elsewhere.
Emmanuel Sanders (6200)- A great catch percentage and TD let Sanders have a great week. He is one that I will go back to the well with again.
Randal Cobb (4600)- Cobb was targeted 10 times, caught 9 of them, and was able to get crazy yardage (142). I think he could be another great play this week if Rodgers is good to go.
Julio Jones (8400)- I love Julio. He is always able to get huge points. If the Falcons offense ever figures out what to do with him and his 20 opportunities that will get him in the end zone he will be a stud.
Jared Cook (3600)- Watching this game against the Rams looked like Cook was schemed in his 12 targets for 180 yards. I don’t think he will be able to reproduce this week.
Melvin Gordon (7600)- Gordon is always a viable play. 28 opportunities, with 13 of them being targets, I love Gordon taking on the Bills. Any type of game flow proves for a good Gordon week. Just imagine his score if he got a TD.
Keenan Allen (7800)- Another guy in the Chargers offense on this list. Keenan had 11 targets, 108 yards, and a TD. I think he can repeat those numbers against Buffalo.
Rob Gronkowski (7000)- Gronk is one of a few pass catchers in the New England offense. He might have a tough go this week against a pretty solid Jacksonville defense.
Todd Gurley (9200)- Gurley had 20 carries for over 100 yards and another 5 targets which resulted in 39 yards and a TD. He is another one that I trust to repeat big numbers, but once again, is he worth the price?
Low Volume-High Points
Tyreek Hill (7600)- Tyreek was able to score every possible way. Only 10 total opportunities might spell disaster for another player, but I trust Hills speed. He is a great GPP play as always. Load him up if you can.
DeSean Jackson (4900)- Oh DeSean. 146 yards and 2 TD. He also caught 100% of his targets. The only problem with him is that he only had 5 targets. If you had him last week, congrats for the great pick. However, I think that was one of only a few weeks that he can offer you value.
Mike Evans (7300)- Tampa Bay again. Getting only 7 targets makes it tough to keep getting huge points. If you trust FitzMagic then you can try Evans again, but I am out.
Kenny Stills (5700)- Stills was able to get over 100 yards and get 2 TD. Unfortunately, that was on only 5 targets. I won’t be trusting this Miami receiver.
High Volume-Low Points
Carlos Hyde (4900)- Hyde saw 22 rushes and 2 targets last week and only managed 13.5 points. I think that might be due to the weather last week, or just a product of being in Cleveland. While I normally like the volume there are other plays that I like more.
Dalvin Cook (6500)-Here is the type of guy that we can really get behind. A young, fast player who just was not able to get it going. I think that this week Dalvin is a player you can roll out again. Once he gets it really going his price will shoot through the roof, so play him now while you can afford him.
Lamar Miller (5400)- The only reason Miller didn’t have over 100 yards and a TD on his 22 opportunities is because the Texans decided to let his backup have one drive where he scored. Look for miller this week!
TJ Yeldon (5600)- If Fournette is out this week play Yeldon. If Fournette plays, don’t. TJ had 7 targets in a game where the starter went down and I think that he can be great. Only if there is no Leonard Fournette.
Christian McCaffrey (7000)- McCaffrey is being used all sorts of way in Carolina. Unfortunately, last week Cam decided to rush one in himself in the red zone. If Christian got that score he would be priced differently and more people would be on him. Play him this week.
David Johnson (8200)- Johnson with 18 opportunities was low for him. This week I’m looking him to get more involved in a game with a better flow for his skills. He is still expensive, but could pay off.
If you want to hear more about my thoughts on Daily Fantasy Football check out my podcast Bettor Then Half on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
