The Patriots are playing in their 8th straight AFC title game. The Chiefs are playing in their first AFC title game in 25 years. It’s also the Chiefs first title game in Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots beat the Chiefs by 3 points in week 6, when a last minute drive in the 4th quarter, sealed the win. So, do any of these facts really make a difference? Let’s take a look at at the intricacies for both teams.
First, let’s look at the Patriots.
Tom Brady is arguably the best QB to ever wear a helmet. Tom Brady competes like few others! If Brady entered a Spelling Bee, he would scratch, claw, or deflate the tires of the other parent’s cars, to ensure a win. (just kiddin about the deflate thing, Tommy). When you look up the word “competitor” Brady’s picture is beside it. If you give him a chance, he’ll eat you alive.
The Patriots running game is sneaky good. Sony Michele might be the best rookie running back in the AFC. He doesn’t do anything fancy, but his 4.5 ypc is too good to ignore. James White also has a 4.5 ypc. They seamlessly spell each other in the lineup. It seems like the Patriots are using the running game more this year than they have, since Corey Dillon, back when Brady was just a skinny kid, who had a good arm.
The Patriots passing game took a hit when Gordon screwed the pooch again. They still have a couple of deep threats in Patterson and Hogan, but their short/intermediate passing game is great! Edelman and Gronk are a tandem to be reckoned with. James White is absolutely fabulous in the passing game! He was targeted 17 times against the Chargers, pulling down 15 of them, for 97 yards
The Patriots defense is lead by the NFL’s best coach, since George Halas. There’s no denying that Belichick is the Guru. They don’t have flashy players in the front 7, but they always seem to get that critical stop when the Pats need it the most. The secondary is pretty darn good. Led by Stephon Gilmore. They’re all going to have their hands full against the Chiefs.
Now, Let’s look at the Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes III is the future of the NFL. Frankly, I’m in awe of this kid. In his first year as a starter, he has tallied 50 touchdowns and eclipsed the 5000 yard mark. The front runner for the 2018 league MVP is putting up points similar to what Dan Marino did in his first year. The kid has more tools in his pocket that few have seen and the amazing part, is that he already knows how to use them.
The Chiefs running game took a big hit this year, when Kareem Hunt was cut for doing something that NO man should ever do. Damien Williams, Spencer Ware, Darrell Williams and Charcandrick West are trying to take up the slack. Damien Williams has done a fine job of doing so. His 416 total yards and 6 TDs are pretty similar to Hunt’s numbers. The Chiefs running game has survived and looking pretty darn good.
The Chief passing game is truly something to watch. Led by Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, the league has yet to figure out how to stop it Of the Chiefs 4 losses, the passing game did more than it’s job, with 1299 yards and 12 TDs. Those 4 games were losses, folks! It seems like Hill and Kelce are breaking team records every week. It’s needless to say that the Chiefs passing game is just plain great!!
The Chiefs #31 defense couldn’t seem to stop a turtle during the first 15 weeks. There is a few good stats for the defense. They lead the league with 55 sacks. They’re only allowing 17 ppg at home. In their last 2 games, the defense seemed to have really stepped it up. They have only given up 9 points against the Raiders and Colts, all have been during “garbage time”.
Now , lets stack both teams up against each other.
The QB position shouldn’t be a hard comparison…..but it is. The “Goat” hasn’t had his best year. His experience is a huge plus. His best attribute is reading defenses and quickly getting the ball out of his hands. He never seems to have a great receiving corps, but he seems to get the most out of his players. The guy is still a great QB! Enter the “new kid in town”. He has a receiving corps like no other. He has an extraordinary knack to extend plays. He can throw the ball at 1000 angles. Heck, he can throw with his other hand! Tom Brady is the Goat. Patrick Mahomes is the prodigy. I’m going to give this one to Brady. He’s been there and done that, many times. He’s still the big dog on the porch. Until he gets knocked off the porch, he gets the nod. Small edge to New England.
I’m also going to give the running game to New England. Sony Michele is going to be great someday. James White IS great. His ability to get open is 2nd to none. They’re using the clock as a friend. Long drives is what everyone in the playoffs wants. Kansas City seemed to remember that last week. They possessed the ball almost 40 minutes last week vs the Colts. I do think both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground, but KC has a pretty short sample of what they can do running the ball. If KC still had Kareem Hunt, they’d get my vote, but they don’t. Small edge to New England
The passing game clearly favors the Chiefs. Mahomes and crew are averaging 3+ passing TDs per game. No defense has shown me that they can be stopped. During Sammy Watkins absence, the Chiefs didn’t miss a beat. Mahomes seems to be great at recognizing coverage and finding the receiver that has the best match-up. Brady is also great, but he doesn’t have anything close to the ammo that Mahomes does. Brady can “dink and dunk” you to death, but with his weapons, Mahomes will eventually steal a defense’s soul. Teams seem to be playing on their heels the entire game. Big edge to Kansas City.
This part of the game is going to decide who wins. Neither of the defenses have done much to write home about. Both have shown me that they’re getting better at the right time. In my opinion, the Pats are going to attempt to keep the Chiefs offense off the field, by running the ball. The Chiefs had a great showing last week, against the run. The Pats also had a great rushing defense. Last week, the Pats held Philip Rivers to under a 50% completion percentage.. The team most likely to slow down the other is Kansas City. They have seemed to have fixed most of what was broken. The interior penetration is likely to give Brady fits. I really don’t see the Patriots slowing down the Chiefs offense. The Arrowhead crowd is also the loudest in the NFL. Noise matters. An edge on defense goes to the Chiefs.
I didn’t forget about special teams. The officials have totally taken over on kick returns. The advantage would go to the Chiefs, but it really depends on how the officials feel on who has success.
So, who wins?
I’m giving a small edge to the Pats at the QB position. If this was a boxing match, i’d score it 10-9. The running game I’m also giving to the Pats. I feel the Michele/White tandem gives the Pats the edge. I’ll score this one 10-8. The passing game goes to Kansas City, simply because they haven’t been stopped all year. Brady and the Pats have been slowed down by some of the worst defenses this year. Big edge to Kansas City. I’m scoring this 10-7, KC has too many ways to win the passing game.
The KC defense gets the edge here. Sounds kinda weird, huh? The Chiefs defense only gives up 17.4 points at home. They have only allowed 9 points in the past 2 games. The pass rush is going to make it nearly impossible for Brady to throw downfield. Chiefs Kingdom will make it nearly impossible for the Pats to communicate. I’m scoring this 10-8.
Conclusion
The Chiefs win this boxing match, by a score of 37-35. The passing game, defense and home field clearly favor’s the Chiefs., while the running game and QB go to the Pats. So according to my crazy way of looking at things, the Chiefs will win this game. I’m guessing they’ll win this by a 13 point margin.
