Before I get started with this idea that I fully know isn’t unique especially after the beat down Trevor Lawrence and Clemson put on Alabama, let it be said, Trevor Lawrence is not going to sit out the next year and he probably won’t sit out the following year. We all know that you need to play three years in college, so lets just get that out of the way. The point is to pontificate whether Trevor Lawrence can improve his stock by playing any more college football. This is one of those discussions you have with your friends where someone says right after one of Lawrence’s many great throws last night against that vaunted Bama defense, “this guy would go #1 right now in the draft.” Then everyone laughs about it. Next the laughter slowly quiets down and everyone, right around the same time, thinks to themselves that that isn’t that crazy of an idea. That’s what happened last night when Trevor Lawrence was stepping up in the pocket like a 15 year NFL veteran an torching the alleged top ranked Crimson Tide defense with all their future NFL guys. I think it’s a take that is a proper one.
Lawrence By the Numbers
Trevor Lawrence played in every game this year but he wasn’t the opening day starter until Sept. 29. That’s when Kelly Bryant was benched and Lawrence was inserted firmly as the starter after performing well in the first four games. Bryant got butthurt then left the team to transfer to Missouri and I’m sure he was shaking his head with everyone else in awe of what he was watching. Lawrence is a true freshmen and he commanded the Tigers right from the get go. He finished the year with 30 TDs with only 4 INTs and a 65% completion percentage. His first actual start against Syracuse was the only game where he didn’t lead Clemson to a blowout. Every other game his team won by at least 20 points. That’s crazy and so is his numbers. 30 scores to only 4 picks is Ludacris. I mean 10 months ago the guy was going to prom and now he made college football, Alabama and Nick Saban his bitch.
Lawrence and the Eye Test
You gotta love when analysts talk about the eyeball test. A test that is usually a nice cop out to argue against data. But with Lawrence, he has all the numbers and he passes the eyeball test. The way the ball comes out of his hand, how he throws the deep ball, to the way he climbs the pocket(look at me I’m Jon Gruden) is something to see. He made a throw last night where he avoided a rusher, moved forward in the pocket and delivered an accurate strike like he’s been doing it his whole life. After that, I said there’s so many NFL QBs that can’t ever dream of doing that. Tannehill, Bortles, Allen, Cousins, Prescott, Trubisky, Darnold, Flacco, Newton, Mariotta, and some others can’t really do that or haven’t shown that they can.
Sure, His Team is Loaded
Yeah, I know, his team is stacked with NFL players. His running back his receiver Ross, who destroyed Bama’s secondary and made that awesome one handed catch so effortlessly are all guys who are going to be playing on Sundays. And you can’t forget his offensive line who has several players who will also be playing professionally. It helps and life is easier when you have talent like that surrounding you. But Lawrence went up an Alabama squad loaded with NFL talent as well, many on defense and he treated them like they were Akron.
Only One Direction to Go
If it hasn’t been said all day today in the sports world, then it will be: Trevor Lawrence’s stock can only go down. Even if he comes out next year and lights it up again, judging by all the guys coming back he will, all the scouts and analysts will find some stupid reasons to start knocking him. I don’t know what it will be. They’ll say he goes for the home run to often, or that at times he locks on his first read. Something dumb to say so that everyone pumps the breaks on him even though he’ll be a Heisman candidate. But, that’s the nature of sports. The more film you put out there, the more evidence people have to tear you down. Won’t be the first time, won’t be the last.
Precedent
There is some precedent that you don’t need that much college work to make it to the NFL. One example is Cardale Jones. You remember him right? He was the Ohio St. QB who got his first start in the Big 10 championship game and ended up winning his next two games including the national title game. That was in 2014. Jones played the next year but didn’t to much and he was then drafted in the 4th round in 2016. So, because of three really good games Jones ended up getting drafted in the 4th round.
A better and even more recent example is Mitch Trubisky. Mitch really only played one year for North Carolina and he put up really good numbers, numbers very similar to Lawrence with more games starting. Based off that one year where the Tar Heels won nothing, Mitch was drafted #2 overall. That leads me to believe that if Lawrence was eligible this year, he wouldn’t fall past #2. It be either him or Dwyane Haskins and honestly, I’d bet more folks would take Lawrence.
Of Course
Of course, this is something that can never happen. Trevor Lawrence will be talked about as being the best pro prospect since Andrew Luck until the next year starts and he will probably carve up college football again and will probably be at worst in the championship game again. Then we’ll be doing this all again. Fun to think what a 20 year old Lawrence would be able to do in the league.
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