We are just 66 days (9 more Saturdays!) from the start of the 2019 College Football season. All 130 FBS teams will enter the season with the ultimate goal of hoisting the College Football Playoff Trophy in early January, while all of us fans will spend 12 hours on the couch watching games every Saturday, just for Alabama and Clemson to (likely) meet again in the Playoff.
The adoption of the four-team playoff in the 2014 season was a huge step from the controversial BCS system of years past. Instead of a computer ranking teams, the power was put into the hands of actual human beings, and the creation of national semi-finals allowed cross-conference matchups to determine who the better team was on the field, not on a computer. In the five years of the Playoff, a team outside of the top 2 has won twice (Ohio State in the inaugural 2015 CFP, and Alabama in 2018). Few, if any fans, would disagree that the transition from BCS to CFP has been bad. However, there has been a constant debate about whether the 4-team bracket should expand or not.
The Case For Expansion
- More competitive games. Quite simply, expanding the College Football Playoff means more top-level, meaningful games. Congruently, this means seeing the best college players on the field against each other. It’s becoming more common every year for draft prospects to sit out of bowl games to avoid injury. If these bowl games now held national title implications, players would have more motivation to play.
- Include more teams. Similar to #1, there is rarely significant separation between the 4th and 5th ranked teams. This past year, the 4, 5, and 6 teams were Oklahoma (12-1, Big 12 champion), Georgia (11-2, lost @ LSU and to Alabama in a closely contested SEC Championship Game), and Ohio State (Big 10 champion). From the eye test, most would argue that all three of these teams were better than #3 Notre Dame (12-0). Any of these teams could beat each other on a given day–why not give them a chance to do that?
- Group of 5. On the topic of including more teams, sorry UCF, but you’ll never sniff the CFP given the current format. Unless they start playing against other CFP teams in non-conference play, their strength of schedule will not give them a spot in the 4-team playoff. An expansion could provide that opportunity. Some argue that the highest ranking Gof5 team should get an automatic berth, and I don’t hate that idea, as long as they’re legitimately a Top 15 team or so. UCF thinks they can beat Alabama? They’ve certainly voiced that opinion off the field, give them the opportunity to prove it on the field.
- Upsets. We all love March Madness and the upsets it brings. Granted, a top 10 national team winning a game is a little different than UMBC knocking off Virginia, but still. Upsets are fun.
The Case Against Expansion
- Talent Discrepancy. As previously noted, the 4 and 5 seeds are relatively indistinguishable. The 1 and 8 seeds? Not so much. Had the 2019 CFP used an 8-team system, the matchups would have been as follows (higher seed listed first): Alabama vs. UCF, Clemson vs. Michigan, Notre Dame vs. Ohio State, Oklahoma vs. Georgia. Alabama and Clemson would likely dominate those games. More often than not, the one seed dominates the four seed. For example, Alabama came out to a 31-10 lead by half, then cruised to a 45-31 victory. If Clemson or Alabama had to play an eight seed, the score would be even more lopsided. The best teams prove themselves throughout the season, plain and simple.
- Length of Schedule. A College Football Playoff expansion would, without additional changes, mean that two teams are playing 16 games in a single season. That’s extremely long for these kids who are working their asses off all year on the field, in the weight room, and in class. Oh, and they’re still not getting paid a dime for their time, effort, and success. Me and Trevor Lawrence are currently getting paid the same amount for playing football–think about that for a second.
- 8 vs. 9 Will Become the New 4 vs. 5. In the BCS era, it was the battle for the #2 ranking. Today, it’s for #4. In an 8 team system, it would be for #8. Things change, people don’t.
Conclusion
Vanderbilt’s going 6-6 and losing in a meaningless bowl game. The winner of Clemson vs. Alabama will win the National Championship. I’m going to watch every single game regardless.
In all seriousness, I think the four-team system is working well. Obviously, it isn’t perfect, but once you expand, it would be nearly impossible to shrink it again. For the time being, keep it the way it is, identifies major issues and create sustainable alternatives. College football is a massive business with a huge fan base, and that won’t be changing any time soon.
Feel free to drop your opinion down in the comment section. Give us a follow on Twitter @BellyUpSports and @BellyUpCFB, and pray for me when SEC conference play starts.
