We continue our journey to week one of the college football season. We move onto the Big 12 conference. The Big 12 does not do divisions so we will break the conference in half. The first half of the conference we will look at today. Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, Iowa State, and Baylor previews are straight ahead. Let’s take a look at the Big 12 Preview.
Big 12 Preview
Oklahoma:
Oklahoma has dominated the Big 12 conference for the past 23 years. The Sooners have won 12 of the possible 23 conference championships. They have won four championships in a row. Oklahoma is also coming off back-to-back College Football Playoff (CFP) appearances. Two years ago, we saw Bob Stoops step down as head coach. Lincoln Riley took over and some thought Oklahoma would take a step back. The Sooners have not missed a beat with Riley at the helm. Led by Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray the Sooners won the Big 12 and advanced to the CFP. The Sooners lost in overtime to Georgia in 2017 and we defeated by Alabama last year. Riley looks for his third straight CFP appearance with his third different quarterback.
With Kyler Murray in Arizona Cardinals red, a young quarterback named Jalen Hurts has traded in one shade of Crimson for another. Hurts transfers from Alabama after leading the Crimson Tide to an SEC Championship and a 27-2 record. Backing up Tua Tagovailoa, Hurts threw for 765 yards and 8 touchdowns. Hurts will have his 2 leading running backs in Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon back. Jalen will also have the pleasure of spreading the ball around to CeeDee Lamb and Grant Calcaterra. Oklahoma will not miss a beat with Hurts under center. The test for Jalen in 2019 is forming back into a starter. After spending last year on the bench, will Hurts be rusty at the beginning of the season? How long will is take for Jalen to shake off any rust?
Oklahoma opens with Houston and then travels to UCLA in week 3. The Cougars upset Oklahoma back in 2016 while the Sooners destroyed UCLA last year 49-21. If the Sooners win those two games, I foresee the Sooners being 5-0 heading into the Red River Rivalry against Texas.
Assuming the Sooners win that, the only tough game left is the Bedlam Rivalry against Oklahoma State.
After a two-year hiatus ending the year with someone else, the Big 12 have restored order putting the Bedlam Rivalry at the end of the year. Oklahoma will have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game, but a win over the Cowboys sets the stage for another berth in the CFP. Worst case the Sooners end the regular season 10-2.
Regardless of the two losses, the Sooners will do enough to be in the Big 12 title game. Just when you think someone will knock Oklahoma off, they find a way to defend their crown and keep their rightful place on the Big 12 throne. The Sooners are my pick to once again make the Big 12 title game and depending on who they play, Oklahoma will raise the Big 12 trophy once again.
Texas:
It had been eight long years since Texas lost the 2009 National Championship to Alabama. The loss sent the Texas football team into a tailspin. The Longhorns never won another Big 12 championship and missed a bowl game on 3 separate occasions. Mix in a 2-6 record against Oklahoma and an embarrassing overtime loss to Kansas and the Longhorns had become a laughingstock of the Big 12. Tom Herman finally rekindled the flames last year; winning 10 games and advancing to the Big 12 title game. Even though the Longhorns defeated Oklahoma in the regular season, the Sooners got the better of Texas in the Big 12 championship. Texas rebounded quite nicely and won the Sugar Bowl over Georgia. Herman enters year three as the head coach. He hopes to build on last year’s success.
The Horns return their starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger, as well as running back Keaontay Ingram. Ehlinger has receivers Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay returning to add another element to an already explosive offense. Ehlinger threw for 3,292 yards with 25 touchdowns last year. He also registered 16 rushing touchdowns. Ehlinger is a key cog in this Texas offensive machine. How he performs will directly affect how the offense performs. However, Sam cannot do it alone. Ingram and Daniel Young will need to be effective running the football to take the pressure off Sam. Look for the Longhorns to rely on a balanced offensive attack to confuse and keep Big 12 defenses off track.
Texas fans rejoice in not having to open the season against Maryland. Back-to-back years, Texas was favored to beat the Terrapins. Maryland was not intimitaded and upset the Longhorns both times. The early season test for the Horns, this season, comes in week two when LSU comes to town.
If Texas wins the only the other opponent to test them would be Oklahoma.
Win that game and we could see Texas 12-0 heading into the Big 12 title game. The Horns do play back-to-back road games against Iowa State and Baylor. If Texas overlooks these two teams, that could spell trouble for the Longhorns. Worst case you split these 2 road games and still end up with 2 losses in the Big 12. That is still good enough to advance to the Big 12 title game. For the second straight year, the Red River Rivalry could decide the Big 12 champion. Texas has been the little brother to Oklahoma for the last 9 years.
Despite holding three regular season victories over Oklahoma, the Longhorns still do not have the championships to show for their efforts. Look for Herman and company to be motivated to step out of big brother’s shadow and advance to their first ever CFP.
Texas Christian University (TCU):
TCU joined the Big 12 conference in 2012. The Horned Frogs have held their own since becoming a member of the Big 12. In 2014, TCU shared the conference championship with Baylor and three years later, advanced to their first Big 12 conference championship. The Horned Frogs were jumped by Ohio State in the 2014 CFP and Oklahoma defeated TCU in the 2017 Big 12 championship 41-17. Gary Patterson enters year 19 as head coach in Fort Worth. Patterson has put together three double digit win season since 2012. He holds an overall record of 167-63 and is 11-6 in bowl games. Patterson is quite the established coach and has taken TCU to unprecedented heights. 2019 hopes to be a starting block for another exciting and record-breaking season filled with accomplishments.
Senior, transfer quarterback Alex Delton takes over the offense this year. Delton transfers in from Kansas State, where he backed up Skylar Thompson. As a backup, Delton threw for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns. Joining Delton on offense, at the skill position, are running backs Sewo Olonilua and Darius Anderson, as well as receivers Jalen Reagor and Taye Barber. Delton hopes to channel his inner Kenny Hill and Trevone Boykin. The combination of Hill and Boykin are responsible for those three double digit win seasons. Boykin helped the Horned Frogs share the 2014 Big 12 Championship with Baylor, while Hill led TCU to the 2017 Big 12 title game. If Delton leads the offense like these two gentlemen, TCU can burst the bubble of Texas or Oklahoma.
TCU opens the season with the potential of being 6-0 hosting Texas on October 26th. If the Horned Frogs pull the upset, they will be 10-0 heading to Norman to face Oklahoma. This is assuming TCU does not fall into a trap. The Horned Frogs travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech the week before. If TCU gets caught looking ahead, the Red Raiders can pull off the upset. Even if you lose to Texas and Oklahoma a 10 win season is something to hang your hat on. The path to the Big 12 title game relies on wins against Texas and Oklahoma. At the very least, you can split those 2 games and depending on how the season unfolds, you can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game.
The success of the 2019 season rests in the hands of Alex Delton. If the offense is not jelling, the season could fall apart after the Texas game. The second half of the season is defiantly tougher than the first. Worst case we could see what happened to Baylor in 2016. The Bears that year started 6-0 but finished 6-6. I think Gary Patterson is too good of a coach to let that happen to his team. Above I said Texas has an easy time going 12-0, if TCU solves their quarterback questions, their schedule is favorable enough that they can be in CFP contention come the last week of the season. TCU has already shown us that they belong with the big boys, 2019 can further establish TCU as a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12.
Iowa State:
The Big 12 is about to enter a severe weather alert. High winds and low visibility are expected. Take cover now or risk your national championship hopes going up in a twister. Iowa State has displayed magical wins since we turned he calendar to the 2010s. In 2011, the Cyclones were a 28 point underdog to #2 ranked Oklahoma State. Iowa State rallied from a 24-7 third quarter deficit and prevailed in overtime. In 2017, lighting struck again for the Cyclones, this time against #3 Oklahoma in Norman. Iowa State overcame a 24-10 deficit to upend the Sooners 38-31. In the last nine years, these two victories have highlighted the Cyclones success. Iowa State hopes to make the glass slipper fit in 2019.
Matt Campbell begins his 4th year at the helm. After a 3-9 first year, Campbell has led the Cyclones to back-to-back bowl games. Iowa State won their 2017 bowl game but lost last year’s. Brock Purdy starts his sophomore season at quarterback. Purdy threw for 2,250 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The Iowa State offense returns three running backs and two wide receivers from last years team. This Cyclone offense started 2018 slow, only registering a 1-3 record. The offense caught fire after losing to TCU, leading the Cyclones to 6 straight wins. Coach Campbell and company want to build on this two year success.
Iowa State plays in week 2 against their rival, Iowa, for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cy-Hawk Trophy has not been in Ames since 2014. The Cyclones hope this rivalry game can springboard success into 2019. After the Iowa game, Iowa State plays three of their next 4 games on the road. I see Iowa State being able to beat Baylor and Texas Tech before they play the Oklahoma schools. If the Cyclones can split with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, they stand a good chance of winning nine regular season games, with an opportunity to win a 10th in the bowl game.
Even with losses to both Oklahoma schools, the Cyclones can still defeat both Kansas schools to get to seven wins. For a third straight year, Iowa State will go bowling and could finish the year with eight wins again. If Iowa State loses to Iowa, at the very least, the Cyclones finish 6-6. Worst case the Iowa game could throw the train off the tracks and Iowa State misses a bowl game altogether.
I do not foresee that happening. If Iowa State wants to advance to their first ever Big 12 title game, the games you must have are Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Failing defeating those three teams, that makes the Cyclones 9-3. They have never registered a double-digit win season. Could this be the year that happens? Winning 10 games and reclaiming the Cy-Hawk Trophy, certainly a job well done for Coach Campbell if he can accomplish these. Consider yourself under a Cyclone warning for 2019.
The Big 12 Preview of Baylor:
Baylor has seen a few bright spots since we turned the calendar to the 2010s. It began in 2011 when Robert Griffin III led the Bears to an upset win over Oklahoma. Griffin III proceeded to win the Heisman Trophy that year and was drafted 2nd overall by the Washington Redskins in the 2012 draft. Art Briles followed the success of 2011 with three double digit wins seasons highlighted by a 2014 Big 12 Co-Championship. We forget that in 2012 Baylor upset #1 Kansas State, ruining their perfect season. After a scandal in 2015, the Bears terminated the contract of Briles. Baylor has tried to bounce back from this scandal but has not put together the wins to do so.
A promising start in 2016 ended with a 6-6 season. The Bears brought in Matt Rhule in 2017. Rhule saw success at Temple winning the American Athletic Conference (AAC) the previous year. Year one under Rhule ended with a 1-11 record which included embarrassing non-conference losses to Liberty and Texas-San Antonio. Baylor rebounded last year making a bowl game and triumphing over Vanderbilt to finish 7-6. Matt Rhule starts his third year hoping to finally return Baylor to its prominence under Art Briles.
The Bears return starting quarterback Charlie Brewer. Brewer threw for 3,019 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. Baylor also returns running backs John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty. This dynamic duo rushed for a combined 1,065 yards and 10 touchdowns. Brewer also has receivers Denzel Mims, Chris Platt, and Tyquan Thornton returning. This trio will allow Brewer the ability to spread the ball around. These skill players can raise the offensive numbers that Baylor has put up the past 2 years. They can also bring Baylor nation back to glory days of Robert Griffin III and Bryce Petty.
Baylor should be 3-0 heading into their first conference game against Iowa State. If the Bears win that, I foresee Baylor being 6-0 heading to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State. Winning that game could put the Bears at 9-0 heading into a 2 game home stand against Oklahoma and Texas. A 1-1 split clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game for Baylor. Losing both games could put the Bears on the outside looking in come championship Saturday. Baylor will bounce back to beat Kansas at the end of the year and could end up in a New Year’s Six bowl. The stretch of head-to-head meetings involving Baylor, TCU, and Iowa State will be fun to watch in 2019.
Whichever team wins the most out of those head-to-head meeting brings us down to the matchups against Oklahoma and Texas. Baylor is the only team to play host to the Sooners and Longhorns. If Baylor defeats Iowa State and TCU, they control their own destiny heading into November 16th and 23rd. Matt Rhule already led Temple to 2 AAC title games. Could we see him lead Baylor to their first ever Big 12 title game?
Oklahoma and Texas may be the front runners, but I am looking forward to covering the journey of Iowa State, TCU, and Baylor. All three of these teams look to put on the glass slipper and ride the pumpkin carriage all the way to Dallas.
