After getting a team into the College Football Playoff (CFP) the first 3 years, the Big 10 has proceeded to miss the CFP the last two years. 2019 starts the return to prominence for the Big 10 conference. We will follow up the Eastern discussion with a deep dive into the Western Division. So many questions we want answered…and it all starts August 29th.
Big 10 West:
The Big 10 West has been Wisconsin’s to lose since 2014. The Badgers have won 3 division titles in 5 years. 2017 was the toughest to swallow for the team from Madison, Wisconsin. The Badgers sat at 12-0 with an eye towards the CFP, but first they needed to stop in Indianapolis. Ohio State was the opponent that Saturday.
The last time these two faced off in the Big 10 Championship, the Buckeyes prevailed with a 59-0 victory.
While the 2017 game was not as lop sighted, Ohio State still came out on top winning 27-21. Wisconsin rebounded in their bowl game, defeating Miami (FL) in the Orange Bowl 34-24. The Badgers followed up 2017 with a 7-5 record. Wisconsin finished 3 games behind Northwestern.
2019 begins year number 5 for Head Coach Paul Chryst. Chryst sees running back Jonathan Taylor return after rushing for over 2,000 yards and 16 TDs. Though Alex Hornibrook will not be under center, Wisconsin returns their top 4 receivers and 6 total starters on defense. Wisconsin faces the top 3 teams in the East.
The Badgers get Michigan and Michigan State at home but travels to Ohio State. Best case, they go 2-1 in these three games. The only other test for Wisconsin is a road trip to Nebraska on November 16th. The Badgers play host to Northwestern on September 28th, but I give Wisconsin the advantage in that game. The ceiling for Wisconsin will be 9 or 10 wins.
At the very least, the Badgers win 8 games and hope the chips fall in line for them to get back to Indianapolis.
Nebraska begins their 9th year in the Big 10 conference. They won their only division title back in 2012. Bo Pelini was the head coach and Taylor Martinez was the quarterback. The Cornhuskers followed up the 2012 season with three 9 win seasons.
They also added a bowl win back in 2015. Big Red has fallen on hard times the last 2 years with a combined record of 12-16. Nebraska has missed the bowl season the last 2 years, as well as posting a combined conference record of 6-12. Nebraska has seen enough and are counting on their former stand out quarterback to turn things around. Scott Frost enters his second season at the helm in Lincoln.
Year 1 was a forgetful one, but Husker nation is hoping 2019 will result in a complete 180.
Nebraska returns 7 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. Some of the returning starters include quarterback Adrian Martinez, wide receiver JD Spellman, and linebacker Mohamed Berry. The Cornhuskers could open the season 4-0, but 3-1 at the very least.
The lone loss at this point is the game in Boulder against Colorado in week two. That leads us to the marquee game, at home, against Ohio State. If Nebraska pulls off the upset, the Huskers could see their record balloon to 9-0 or 8-1, depending on that week two game. The only tough game left would be the home game against Wisconsin on November 16th. Even with a loss, Wisconsin could be out of contention with the 3 game stretch against the Eastern Division Teams.
The success of Nebraska in 2019 lies with their Head Coach Scott Frost. If Frost can duplicate what we saw at Central Florida (UCF) Nebraska will return to the good ole days under Tom Osborn. That is the whole reason behind bringing Scott Frost back home. Nebraska fans are not used to missing bowl games and finishing below .500 in conference play. Frost hopes to bring back the glory days to his alma mater in 2019.
Iowa and Northwestern are the next two closest competitors to Wisconsin and Nebraska. In 2015, Iowa was a Big 10 Championship game away from competing in the CFP. The Hawkeyes have not missed a bowl game since 2012. Iowa also continues to average a solid eight to nine wins a season. 2019 might be a little different, but I would not put anything passed Head Coach Kirk Ferentz.
Iowa has beaten their 2 biggest rivals, Iowa State and Nebraska, 4 years in a row. Iowa also holds key wins over Minnesota and Illinois. Add in a win against Rutgers, as well as their other 2 non-conference games, and Iowa will be at seven wins with an opportunity to win their 8th in the bowl game.
Pat Fitzgerald’s coaching tenure reached a climax last year. Fitzgerald’s Northwestern Wildcats won their 1st Big 10 West Title and appeared in their first ever Big 10 title game. The Wildcats lost to Ohio State, but bounced back to defeat Utah in the Holiday Bowl. Northwestern enters 2019 needing to replace quarterback Clayton Thorson and top receiver Flynn Nagel.
Running back Isaiah Bowser returns along with the top five tacklers on defense. The Wildcats open on the road against Stanford, then face the top two West teams on the road in Wisconsin and Nebraska. Add in a home game against Ohio State and that is a tough first 6 games.
Northwestern could start 1-5 but finish 6-0. Worst case, they still make a bowl game at 6-6. Maybe a win against Michigan State and Stanford turn the season around. The Cats will be hungry to defend their division title, but it will not come easy.
Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois round out the Big 10 West. PJ Fleck begins year number 3 with the Golden Gophers, coming off a 7-6 record. Minnesota could start the season opposite of Northwestern. The Gophers could be 5-0 hosting Nebraska but could finish the year just 2-4. That means Minnesota is 7-1 hosting Penn State. The Gophers could continue the success and pull off the upset or the season could get derailed by the Nittany Lions.
Purdue will be playing with heavy hearts this year with the passing of Tyler Trent. The Boilermakers honored Trent by naming the student gate after him. Purdue also placed a plaque in the stadium in his honor. The Boilermakers explosive receiver Rondale Moore returns to compete for the Fred Biletnikoff Award. While Moore may win best receiver, his team could miss bowl season. Give Purdue a win against Nevada to open the season, then potential wins over Maryland, Illinois, and Indiana. This puts the Boilermakers at 4-8. I cannot see them registering more wins than that in 2019.
Illinois has not been to a bowl game since 2014. Lovie Smith starts year four in Champaign with hopes of returning the Illini to relevance. The year was 2007 when Illinois knocked off Ohio State, advancing all the way to the Rose Bowl. It is nice to have dreams this big, however, Illinois will need four leaf clovers and horseshoes to accomplish this. While I like Lovie, I do not see anything different happening in 2019. Give the Illini a win over Akron, Cincinnati, and Eastern Michigan to start 3-0. Add in a toss-up game against Rutgers and Illinois finished 4-8 or 3-9. Depending on how the season unfolds, Illinois could beat Northwestern at the end of the year. No matter how you slice it, the Illini will have to wait another year before they return to Capitol One Bowl Mania.
As the Big 10 West strives to get on the same level with the East, they share equal storylines heading into 2019. The Big 10 West is also a 4 team race. The Western Division will be decided between Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern. November 9th-November 30th will determine our Western Division Champion.
In those last 4 weeks, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa play head-to-head against one another. Whomever finishes that four game slate with the best record will represent the West in Indianapolis.
Northwestern will need to stay in contention the first 6 weeks. If the Cats go 1-5 as I predict, I do not see a 7-5 record being good enough to win the West. We did see a 7-5 Pittsburgh defy the odds and win the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Coastal division last year. That example shows you anything is possible. I, however, feel the Western Division Champion will be a 9 to 11 win team this year. You cannot keep a good dog down. Wisconsin is my pick to once again go to Indianapolis with the objective to bring the Western Division its first Big 10 Championship.
