An Early Season Guide to Potential Profit
Hello everyone! I’ll start off with just a quick introduction about myself, my writing style, and what I’ll be covering. Then I promise, it’s nothing but information about the sports we all love and the money making possibilities that come with them. My name is Nick Rellihan and I am beyond excited to start my time here at Belly Up Sports. I’ll be covering the NFL, College Football/Basketball, and all the fantasy/gambling implications in between. I believe in engaging with my audience as much as possible, so I’ll always leave my Twitter handle (@Rellihan51) at the end of all my articles to hear what you have to say! Also, I believe in stating the facts, but I also will never shy away from my own opinions on subjects, teams, etc. So don’t be alarmed (or be alarmed) that I’ll be throwing around spicy hot takes (anywhere from Frank’s Red Hot to Ghost Pepper hot, I’ve eaten both because I make poor choices), making my articles unique with parenthetical cutaways, BOLD FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK, and Italics for emphasis/sarcasm. Alrighty then, let’s get to it!
Caesars Entertainment has partnered with the NFL this season, which means extra information and even more action. Lines are going to be readily available, and with the NFL’s backing, will be moving all over the place. So lock in your lines early to take advantage of push options! The lines here are updated as of August 2nd, 2019 and are straight from the Caesars book.
Quick Disclaimer
Let me start with a disclaimer: I don’t bet or talk about bets without doing research, that being said, it’s called gambling for a reason. There is risk involved (which I am usually partaking in myself as well) so please don’t coming for kneecaps if I happen to not be 100% accurate. Flame me all you’d like, I can take a good ribbing, and I will empathize with the worst of the worst of bad beats (I live and die with parlays). That being said, let’s get to the good part and have some fun with the NFL season long selections that I feel can be particularly profitable.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot. A word of advice, and I cannot stress this enough, seriously I’d like to yell this from the mountaintops so people do not do the following:
DO NOT PLACE ACTUAL MONEY ON PRESEASON NFL GAMES
Ok, I feel better now. Save your money for games that count and don’t involve backup wide receivers with single digit numbers. Here we go.
NFL Over/Unders
The first category I’ll be going over is the win totals for the 2019 NFL season. These kinds of bets do take patience, but can be well worth the wait. I base these picks off of previous season statistics, offseason acquisitions/subtractions, and strength of schedule. Obviously, player health is paramount, and could greatly skew a line if a major name gets hurt. In those cases, common sense is pretty good to determine if it’s worth the bet or not.
Houston Texans: Over 8.5 wins
To be honest, I do not understand this line very much. I think it’s the best line to take advantage of right now for a multitude of reasons. Deshaun Watson is one of the best quarterbacks (He finished 5th in QBR) in the NFL right now AND has one of the top wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins (#2 in receiving yards last year). The offense is going to put up a good amount of points. The defense is starting to show some wear, including a Clowney holdout, but their still a very solid group around a defensive minded coach in Bill O’Brien (they finished giving up less than 20 points per game in 2018). They’re going to get a win against Jacksonville at least, they should win both against Tennessee. The Colts are going to be tough, but divisional games usually are and maybe they steal a win there. So ideally, we’re at 4 wins there. Victories against the Bucs, Panthers, Raiders, and Broncos gets us just about to our magic number. Not having a push option is really tough here, considering some of their road games are absolutely brutal: New England, Kansas City, Baltimore, and New Orleans. If Houston can steal just one of those, that gets us there.
Cleveland Browns: Over 9 wins
This is another case of having an absolutely premium push option. If we’re at 9.5 here, we have to seriously consider the under. However, with the line being at 9, we can be pretty comfortable going over with some of these pillow fight games (they’re in the bottom ten of schedule strength this season) the Browns are walking into. It’s hard to think of Cleveland as a legitimate contender for the playoffs. Remember, Kareem Hunt is going to comeback through the season fully rested, and OBJ is there now to make the offense one of the most exciting to watch in the league engineered by Baker Mayfield. ultimately I think the stigma has kept the win total reasonable. The divisional schedule has two locks for wins in the Bengals, and potential splits (if not another sweep) against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. So ideally, we’re at 5 victories, if there’s a setback it’s still looking okay at 4. Miami and Arizona will be handing out wins to everyone all season, Buffalo isn’t good, and Tennessee won’t be favored. There’s our 9. If another win is needed, Denver would more than likely oblige.
New England Patriots: Over 11 wins
I cannot express enough how much it infuriates me how laughably easy the Patriots schedule is this year. As long as Brady/Belichick is a thing, they’re going to win games. The line as been teetering between 11 and 11.5 for a while now, so if you can bag the push option, the over here is the only way to go. They’ll win all of their division games, I really don’t think another Miami Miracle is going to happen and Belichick will take Leveon Bell away from the Jets. Right off the bat we’re at 6. Then there is the absolute gift of games that Goodell decided to bestow upon New England: Redskins, Giants, Bengals. Come on now, those are going to be absolute blowouts. Cleveland and Baltimore I think will push the Patriots, but I don’t think those squads are quite up to snuff just yet. Viola! There’s 11 and it’s not at all difficult to achieve it. So all the Evil Empire needs to do now is win one of the following games: @Houston, @Philly OR Home games against the Chiefs, Steelers, and Cowboys. Normally, I’d think 11.5 wins to be an absurd number. The schedule is just absolutely stacked in their favor. I’m not happy about it, but I’ll take the money.
College Bonus Picks
When it comes to season win totals, college football is a fickle business. There is so much turnover for programs, kids (Yes, kids. These guys are 18 to 20 year olds in college. Poor decisions will be made. We’ve all been there) will be suspended or transfer, and teams fluff their schedules with cupcakes. I’m definitely a proponent of a weekly selections when it comes to picking college football games, but there are a couple lines out there right now that I feel are just asking to get taken advantage of based on schedules and premium push options. Here is the short list of teams that can be money makers this year:
- KANSAS: OVER 3
- KANSAS STATE: OVER 5.5
- MICHIGAN: UNDER 9.5
- ARMY: UNDER 10
- TEXAS: UNDER 9.5
The first team up there I know is going to spark conversation, let me explain for a couple seconds and give the rationale for my Kansas pick. As a general rule, you should never let your personal fandom influence your gambling. It skews your objectivity and logic, and often times results in throwing away money. However, I will be dead an buried before I give up on my Kansas Jayhawks. In my time in Lawrence, I witnessed a whopping zero football wins. The only time we tore down the goal posts was when the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. The line is 3 wins. The first two games of the season for the Jayhawks are the Indiana State Sycamores and the Coastal Carolina Chantacleers. Les Miles is a hell of a football coach and has already amassed the #4 recruiting class for 2020 in the Big 12. For football. That’s insane. Miles has also brought something to Lawrence that hasn’t been there since the days of Mark Mangino. Hope. Kansas fans (myself included) are actually looking forward to football season again, and so are the players. Their remaining non-conference game is Boston College, which is winnable. Even if they don’t pull that off, I just don’t see Kansas going winless in conference. Hell, we beat Texas in football on accident once. There’s an actual football coach in Lawrence again, and I’m putting my money on him.
That’s all for now everyone, I’ll be looking for season long player props after the brunt of training camp is done and over with. Also, fantasy football drafts are right around the corner, so be on the lookout for my projections and predictions on that. Feel free to contact me on Twitter! Agree? Disagree? Want to flame Kansas? I want to hear from you all!
Good Luck Everyone!
Nick Rellihan (@Rellihan51)
