Welcome to week 1 of CFB gambling picks! Week 0 showed us how unpredictable early season football can be. Both Florida and Arizona did not cover as favorites, with the latter getting dominated as double digit favorites at the hands of Hawaii. That’s why week 1 college football really is the toughest week to project and bet on.
Even with a majority of the top 25 playing early season cupcakes, you still have not seen them play, nor can you anticipate chemistry issues, early season tackling issues (see Florida), issues with the playbook, coaching change issues. That comes with time as the season progresses. That is why I believe teams like Houston will rise to the occasion week 1, and cover. Here are my Week 1 CFB Hot Picks brought to you by http://bellyupsports.com/:
Georgia Tech Will Cover – Barely
All we have to go on is last season and this year’s spring and summer camps. It is because of these week 1 issues that plague teams inevitably every year, that I really take a hard look at these large spreads. Even with talent gaps like the one you’ll see with Clemson and Georgia Tech, it is still really hard to beat a power 5 team by over 5 touchdowns.
Georgia Tech is breaking in an entirely new staff, lead by new head coach Geoff Collins. Collins will look to transition from Paul Johnson’s triple option, and implement a pro-style balanced attack. They added one of the best offensive line coaches in the country in Brent Key, which should go a long way in helping the transition from option to pro-style.
Georgia Tech will have one advantage to start this game, and that is the element of surprise. They also have not released a two-deep roster publicly yet, which will have Clemson scrambling this week to find key guys to focus on. It is because of this, mixed with first week mistakes from both teams, AND Clemson replacing their entire defensive line and a DB, that I believe Tech will cover the 36.5 point spread.
Prediction: Clemson 44 – 17
Utah Covers Comfortably Thanks to D-line
The Holy War will be no war this year – it will be a slaughter.
This is my favorite week 1 CFB gambling pick. Utah holds the talent gap at every position on the field it seems, and they return their entire defensive line that led the Pac-12 in rushing defense a year ago. Their leading rusher, Zack Moss and top receiver Britain Covey are both back and playing Thursday night. Tyler Huntley will look to improve on his season last year at QB, and should be a solid option for the Utes all season long if he stays healthy.
BYU will have a solid QB in Zach Wilson, but little else to really threaten Utah. I do not believe that they can establish any sort of run game against the stout Utah defensive front, which will result in Wilson having to throw the ball to a group of less than stellar receivers. They also have some injury/depth concerns in the secondary.
Prediction: Utah 38-10
USF Could Pull Off an Upset – At the Least, Cover
USF started off hot last year, winning their first 7 games, before hitting an offensive blow up and losing their last 6 games. This year they add a new offensive coordinator, in former Valdosta State HC and former Florida QB Kerwin Bell. Bell had an exceptional run at Valdosta State, winning a NC in 2018 in Division II. He looks to take former top QB recruit Blake Barnett to the next level. He has plenty of weapons around Barnett to do so, including former Florida standout RB Jordan Cronkrite.
Wisconsin brings back perhaps the nations top RB in Taylor, but they are breaking in a new starting QB in Coan who threw for 515 yards, 5TD and 3 INT in 5 games last year. They only return one starter on the O-line, have an inexperienced and young secondary, and the D-line must replace T.J. Edwards.
USF should score enough to keep them in the game, and possibly pull off the upset at home. The spread has increased to 13.5, where I got them at +12. Take the points and USF.
Prediction: USF 27-24
Stanford Should Have a Talent Advantage
Stanford returns QB KJ Costello, who should challenge for the top QB in the Pac-12 all season. They are building the offense around him this year, utilizing a more screen based passing attack, to make up for what should be a rebuilding year for the run game. Connor Wedington had a solid start to his career in 2017, but injuries last year kept him out most of the season. He should make a huge impact in the Pac-12 this year. Receiver Michael Wilson should also perform at a high level as well.
On defense, they have All-American candidate Paulson Adebo to anchor the secondary, and Obi Eboh is poised for a breakout year. People show concern for their defensive line, but they have Jovan Swann at DE that was named ESPN’s top returning defensive player based on game impact, so he will command a lot of attention. They could greatly improve on the D-line.
Northwestern had probably the worst offensive line in the Big Ten last year, and possibly in all of the power 5 conferences. They have little to no run game, and it does not look like that is going to change currently. They have a new QB in Hunter Johnson, who is a talented passer, and a solid core of WR to go with that arm. However, that offensive line has to have taken about 10 steps forward for Johnson to see his true potential. I do not see that happening, so his production will not match Costello’s in this game.
Prediction: Stanford 30-20
Auburn’s D-line Will Win Them This Ballgame
Auburn returns what could be the nations #1 defensive line. DT Derrick Brown could and should have gone pro, but he returns. He will most likely win some end of season awards, and will be an All-American if he stays healthy this year. Nick Coe, Marlon Davison and Bryant should all play in the NFL someday. This is a truly special unit.
Auburn’s secondary is also in great shape, as they get 4 starters back from a pretty solid unit from last year. However, their LB core will be replaced, and it is a wait and see approach to how that plays out for them. Overall, this defense should carry Auburn in this game and all year long.
Bo Nix is a superstar in the making, and his offensive line, though unspectacular last year, is all returning seniors with a lot of playing time under them. They will, at the very least, be improved and provide the true freshman Nix with ample time and protection.
Oregon has a potential top 10 draft pick at QB in Justin Herbert. Herbert’s line returns as one of the most experienced in the country – but experience does not always equate to success. They were a subpar unit last year, and will need to make a lot of adjustments. Especially if they want to contend with Auburn’s monster front. I just do not see Oregon being able to give Herbert the amount of time he will need. Herbert is a mega-talent. However, he can only do so much with a mediocre line against one of the best defenses in the nation.
Prediction: Auburn 27-16
Houston Will Rise to the Occasion
Houston now has offensive guru Dana Holgorsen running the show, and return most of it’s skill position stars from an offense that finished near the top of the country last year – top 10 nationally in scoring (43.9 ppg) and total yards (512.5 ypg).
D’Eriq King had a monster year in 2018, before injuries derailed the end of his season. He accounted for 50 total TD, and the knee he injured last season, is said to be 100%. Marquez Stevenson, Kieth Corbin and Courtney Lark are the top 3 pass catchers in this offense from last year, and all return. Kyle Porter is a transfer from Texas, who should compete for No.1 RB duty with solid RB Patrick Carr.
Defensively, they were a mess last year, and are replacing stud Ed Oliver to boot. They will lean on a plethora of JUCO transfers to patch up a historically bad defense. Isaiah Chambers had a fantastic start to the 2018 season, but went down with injury after 3 games. He had 4.5 sacks. He is healthy and looks to anchor the D-line and improve their ability to rush the passer. Safety is a solid strength for this team. JUCO All American Demarion Williams should help improve the secondary as well.
Oklahoma replaces #1 overall pick and Heisman winner Kyler Murray, with another stud in Bama transfer Jalen Hurts. I believe that Hurts will have a good season. I do not believe that he can produce the numbers Murray and Mayfield have produced the past few seasons. Do not expect Oklahoma to put up the same scoring numbers as the previous two seasons.
They have an exceptional run game to lean on, and the offensive line will be anchored by Creed Humphrey, who is on the Outland Trophy watch list. I think they will move the ball exceptionally well on Houston. This should be a good tune up game for Hurts to learn the offense and get started.
I do not think Houston has the defense to win this game. I think they are probably 3 TD worse than Oklahoma, but Houston’s offense is loaded. Oklahoma has a history of poor defensively play under Riley. I think that Houston has a chance to light up Oklahoma and cover the spread.
Prediction: Oklahoma 49-30
Complete Week 1 Predictions
