With the 2019 NFL regular season approaching fast we take a look at the best AFC value bets across all four divisions.
What To Look For In A Value Bet?
Before we can tell what the best AFC value bets are, it’s important to understand what a value bet is. In this column, we aren’t suggesting that you wager on these picks. We are simply trying to find what bets have the most value according to the price set by oddsmakers. In essence, value bets don’t always have the highest odds to win which is kind of the point.
When it comes to future bets (wagers that won’t be final until the end of the season) most of the favorites are given a price that has very little value. In a sport like the NFL where one injury or retirement (Andrew Luck) can end your chances of winning a wager very early, you can find value if you do a little bit of homework and of course by taking a risk.
With that in mind, let’s take a look around the four divisions to see what are the best AFC value bets we can find for this upcoming season.
The AFC North Has A New People’s Champ
The Cleveland Browns are the new favorites in the AFC North. They come into the season with a ton of young talent and look to be trending in the right direction. For that reason, they come into this season at +125 to win the division.
Unfortunately, that isn’t the best value bet in the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers price is +195 to win the AFC North. When you look at their projected win totals for the season, you see that the Steelers to win the division is actually the best value bet here.
At the moment, both teams win total for the season is 9.5 wins. If the Browns have the same projected win total as the Steelers, it would stand to reason that oddsmakers see both teams as being close to even.
With that in mind, the Pittsburgh Steelers at +195 is the best value bet in this division. Ask yourself this question, why are the Browns a lock to win anything? Being the most talented team on paper does not make you a lock to win anything, especially in the NFL.
The Steelers have a winning tradition while the Browns don’t. On top of that look at the part of the Browns schedule. They play 4 of their first 7 games on the road including a trip to New England. Even those first three home games include visits from the Seahawks and Rams. If the Browns start off slow, the pressure will start to mount for this young team.
If the Steelers win the AFC North again, that would be a surprise but it wouldn’t shock anyone either.
The AFC West Is A Two-Horse Race
This one is more straight forward. The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL. With that in mind, they are -190 to win the division. That’s a very expensive price but one that makes sense given the popularity of the team and star Patrick Mahomes.
If we’re looking for the best AFC value bets, then look no further than the Los Angeles Chargers. Are we saying that the Chargers are better than the Chiefs? No, we aren’t. What we are saying is the price on the Chargers to win the division is great value at +190.
The question you need to ask yourself is “Are the Chiefs significantly better than the Chargers?” Not really. The Chiefs are the better team no doubt but the Chiefs have weaknesses that the Chargers can exploit.
Starting with the fact that the Chargers have an elite pass rush and one of the best secondary’s in the NFL. If you can put pressure on opposing QB’s while your defensive backs play lockdown defense, that’s really the only recipe that can possibly slow down a team like the Chiefs. We also can’t forget that the Chiefs defense is still not very good. They do have a very good pass rush but their secondary is weak, their linebacker group has no elite players and they have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
On top of that, the Chargers are a veteran team that has been together for a while now. It’s a risky bet for sure but it’s the best value available in the AFC West.
Andrew Luck’s Retirement Is A Money Making Opportunity
We all know about Andrew Luck’s retirement and how it effectively ended the Colts season before it started. At the moment their win total sits at 6.5 at -130 to the over. How are the Colts winning seven games this season?
Their first three games are against the Chargers, Titans, and Falcons. All three of those teams are better than them so an 0-3 start is very possible. They also play on the road against the Steelers, Saints, and Chiefs which are three more losses. They would need to have a winning record in their division to have a chance at winning seven games and that is very unlikely.
The Colts under 6.5 wins at +100 looks like one of the best AFC value bets available.
The AFC East Offers Very Little Value
Perhaps the worst value bet available is the New England Patriots at -500. Of course, they will win the division but with Tom Brady being 42 years old, you’d essentially be betting 5 to 1 that he will stay healthy for an entire season. He is the picture of health so that will probably be the case but it’s still horrible value.
The Dolphins win total seems like an easy pick but the under 5.5 wins is at -220 which is a horrible price. The only wagers even worth considering in this division are the Bills under 6.5 at +155 or the Jets under 6.5 at +135. Since this is the best AFC value bet column, we advise you to stay away from all of these plays. The Jets and Bills have both improved and there’s no telling how their seasons will play out. Any bet you make in the AFC East is high-risk low reward so it’s best to stay clear.
We will be back later this week with the best NFC value bets for the 2019 NFL regular season.
