Here we are just passing the quarter point of the NFL season! Week 5 is shaping up to be a critical week for teams at the 2-2 and 1-3 mark, as a loss can set the tone for the rest of the year. A win, on the other hand, will give those teams another chance at making a playoff push. There’s plenty to talk about regarding last week, but you’ve all had plenty of recaps by this point (As far as I’m concerned the deadline for recaps is really Tuesday, by Wednesday the Thursday night game is already starting the next week. The NFL calendar is odd). But it’s time for your Week 5 game picks!
Week 5 seems like it will be the first to have premium (watchable) games in all the primetime slots (Seahawks/Rams; Chiefs/Colts; Browns/49ers) and a fantastic noon slate of games. That all being said, there are a couple of games I’m going to avoid in regards to the point spread. Don’t fret; there are also games that look like absolute winners. So, let’s get into them, shall we?
Lay the Points, Lock it in
Baltimore (-3) @ Pittsburgh
The Ravens are going to come into this game furious and for good reason. The Browns would’ve really been a non-factor in the division if Baltimore could’ve handled business last week. Instead, they got embarrassed. They got gashed on the ground, and that’s not typical of a Ravens defense. They’re going up against a Steelers team Week 5 that essentially had a bye-week against the Bungles, so they are feeling good about themselves.
That isn’t going to help them magically be a better football team. Every team is going to look good against Cincinnati, and the fact remains that the Steelers are going to struggle on offense against any above-average defense. Pair that with a division rivalry game, the Ravens are going to come out ready to play. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game turns into a blowout early, so the customary three points on the road shouldn’t be a problem.
Chicago (-5) @ Oakland
I’m not entirely certain if anyone should be surprised, but the Bears defense is elite. Again. They’ve once again proved that it really doesn’t matter who is under center, Chicago is more than capable of winning games the old fashioned way. They stonewalled Minnesota last week, and are going against a much lesser (more personally hated) opponent in the Raiders. Now, it’s important to clarify this point: the Bears offense is not great.
However, you can have a less than ideal offense if the defense is going to be the best in the NFL. The Raiders want to run the football, and that is perfectly fine with Chicago. That means a shorter game overall, and a low scoring affair. Quite frankly, I’d be shocked if the over (which is at 41 currently) even got close. Khalil Mack would like nothing more than to destroy Oakland’s Week 5 game plan. Plus, Chase Daniel was a Chief for a little bit. Is that going to provide a little extra motivation? I’d like to think so. Take Chicago and the under here.
Denver @ Los Angeles (-6.5)
The Broncos are really good at one thing so far this season: finding ways to lose football games. That is not a good thing to be excelling at when you’re slated to play a divisional opponent in the Chargers. It’s even worse when that division is the AFC West and everyone is playing a desperate game of ketchup catch up with Mahomes and Kansas City. Los Angeles is also getting Melvin Gordon back, so they’re only getting better on the offensive side of the ball.
On the Denver side, they just lost another key piece in Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season, and an already struggling defense just isn’t equipped to stop Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Joe Flacco has shown the ability to keep the Broncos in games so far this season, but on the road in LA, I see them struggling to hang around in the second half.
Take the Points, Make Money
Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Carolina
Minshew Mania is real for the Jaguars, and for Week 5 it’s rolling into a less than stellar Carolina team that struggles at home. Leonard Fournette has returned to top form as well, racking up a career-high 225 rushing yards last week. The narrative is starting to shape up for Jacksonville, and it’s scarily similar to the last time Nick Foles made a run. If Minshew can keep the ship afloat, and Nick Foles can come back in as a pseudo-backup and then who knows.
As for Week 5 though, it’ll be a great matchup to watch in Run CMC vs. Fournette and Kyle Allen vs. Gardner Minshew. If Jacksonville can just contain McCaffrey, the Panthers are shorter on options than the Jaguars are. I’m surprised that the defense has performed as well as it has with the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and the Panthers aren’t what they used to be. I like Jacksonville this week.
Also, get your Minshew gear from our friends at DSGN Tree!
Green Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas
Both of these teams are coming in after less than stellar performances last week and are needing a statement rebound in Week 5. Dallas flopped against the Saints, and Green Bay LaFleur’ed themselves against Philadelphia. If I had the choice between Dak and Aaron coming into this week, I’m taking an angry Aaron Rodgers.
Last week showed that head coach Matt LaFleur is losing in the power struggle between Rodgers and himself. The red zone play-calling looked timid and questionable at best, so I wouldn’t be surprised if LaFleur gives up a little more control of the offense. Surprisingly, this is a battle of top five NFC defenses as well. While I still expect Zeke to get his 16+ fantasy points and Randall Cobb to maybe get a revenge touchdown, if it comes down a two-minute drill to win a game, there are not too many better options than the one at Green Bay’s disposal.
Buffalo (+3) @ Tennessee
If Josh Allen is able to return for Week 5, I like this game even more. As it stands, I still like the Bills and the points. Buffalo proved their defense was legitimate by holding New England to just 16 points last week. While the Titans aren’t bad on offense, they aren’t the Patriots. If the Bills defense can force a turnover or two and turn this into a grind it out game, I think they’ll have enough on offense to control the clock and shorten the game.
Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry have been impressive this season, and their defense is stout as well. The key element to this game will be head coaching decisions at critical junctures of the game. Mike Vrabel has shown in the past that he’s not afraid to be aggressive and go for fourth downs or two-point conversions. Against a disciplined Buffalo defense, however, I don’t think that will serve them well. It could go either way, but I like the Bills for Week 5.
Stay Away From…
Before I get into my bonus college picks, I wanted to go over the game I’m avoiding this week. The Chiefs are currently 10.5 point favorites against Indianapolis on Sunday night. I can easily see Kansas City covering, but the Colts aren’t a pushover and double-digit spreads are incredibly hard to cover.
There are a few things to keep an eye on though, mainly the health of Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton. If Marlon Mack isn’t able to go, I would think the Chiefs can cover with that kind of a loss to the running game of Indy. But if both Hilton AND Mack are ruled out, I think that this line would be more than favorable for Kansas City if it doesn’t move. If both of them end up playing, I like the Colts with the points. There are just too many uncertainties right now, but keep an eye out for those injury reports.
Bonus College Picks
It was a rough week for my Kansas Jayhawks and Clemson Tigers. What looked like momentum going into the TCU game quickly disappeared as the Horned Frogs essentially ended the game in the first quarter. Now Khalil Herbert is leaving the team, which was a surprise, and we have Oklahoma this week. I hope the Sooners forget their defense in Norman and the spread is closer to 35 (it’s currently 32) otherwise it won’t be fun to watch. Clemson looked like they were on autopilot last week, and were lucky Mack Brown didn’t get creative on his two-point play call. They have a bye, so they’ll have time to fix up their issues, but if they play that way against a playoff team, they’re not going to win. Anyway, with another week of NFL picks comes another week of bonus college selections! Enjoy.
- Wisconsin (-36) vs. Kent State
- SMU (-13) vs. Tulsa
- Washington (-16) @ Stanford
- TCU (+3.5) @ Iowa State
- Cal (+18) @ Oregon
- Worst Game of the Week: Liberty (-5) @ New Mexico State
That wraps up my Week 5 game picks! Again, I want to thank everyone who reads and follows along each and every week. Please continue to hit me up on Twitter to keep the conversation going (@Rellihan51) and I hope that you all have a great week. For those of you waiting for my Start/Sit, don’t worry, it’ll be up by Friday!
See you at Arrowhead!
Nick Rellihan
