Welcome back, folks! It’s the Week 16 Championship! I’m gonna need you to get in the Christmas spirit and sing along with me for this one. “It’s the most wonderful time of the year.” At least, it is for the 2 people in your league that made the championship, which hopefully you did.
Week 16 is bittersweet for us. It is likely the final week of fantasy football before our 8-month hibernation begins. If you play in one of those leagues that does a week 17 championship for some reason, that’s cool. But I won’t acknowledge your existence. You should be in a real league by now that knows not to do that.
That being said, if you took my advice last week, you are probably coming back here because I was able to help you make the right decisions, and reach your championship. Now, I ask that you put your trust in me again. That Championship Title is just waiting for someone to come snatch it. And I want that someone to be you, my friend. So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
Week 16 Championship QB Starts:
Jameis Winston
This week for quarterbacks is pretty by the book. Your top options have solid matchups, and the others don’t. So I’m just gonna reassure you about the ones you maybe have some doubts about. Jameis Winston is one of these players. It just feels like you never know what to expect from this guy. Even when he goes for 450 yards and 4 TDs (which he has now done two weeks in a row), you still kinda feel like he could put up a dud next time.
I’m here to reassure you that Winston, as hit or miss as he is, should be a hit in this matchup. He plays at home, against a Houston defense that I discussed last week. They just gave up 270 yards and 3 scores to Tannehill. Jameis is a risk-taker, and with high risk comes high reward. He may have a ridiculous amount of turnovers which will make you want to pull your hair out. But he will counter that, with a whole lot of yards and probably a lot of touchdowns as well most the time.
If you have Jameis on your roster, he’s likely not the QB you drafted, so you probably have someone else you feel comfortable starting as well. But don’t hit the panic button and play it safe. This is the chip week, and Jameis will give you the best chance to win.
Ryan Tannehill
He was on this list last week, and he’s here again. Look, if you have Tannehill, and you are in the championship, it is probably because you’ve been starting Tannehill. Don’t shy away from that strategy now. Tanny takes on the Saints this week, which might be a little scary after they completely shut down the Colts. Don’t stress out about it, however.
The Saints weren’t playing as shut down in the secondary as the box score might show. Indy was driving the field well a few times, and got stalled out just outside field goal range. This was because of multiple tackles for loss on Marlon Mack that dug them into a hole, and some crucial missed throws by Brissett. The reality of it is, Tannehill is a better quarterback than Brissett, Derrick Henry is not gonna lose 5 yards multiple times, and this game is in Tennessee.
Another thing to note is that Eli Apple, after starting the season playing very well, has been an absolute liability at the corner across from Lattimore. Teams are picking on him and they just claimed Janoris Jenkins, most likely with the intent to replace Apple if it continues. If he is out there, Vrabel will be able to design some plays to pick on him, and Tannehill should be able to take advantage. Don’t expect Tanny to be the highest scoring QB on the week, but don’t abandon him. He should be a very safe play, with some upside in this matchup.
QB Sits:
Josh Allen
Allen is one of the most underrated QB’s in fantasy. He provides a solid floor because of his rushing numbers and big play ability. However, he has been trending downward after the last two games against a couple of very tough matchups with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. And it’s unfortunately not going to get any easier for Josh this week.
He has to travel to New England to take on a very tough division rival defense. Bill Belichick and the Pats are going to be fighting hard to try and get that first-round bye. And you better believe they would love nothing more than to steamroll the Bills on the way to doing that. It should be a tough game for the otherwise solid youngster, so keep him out of your lineups this week.
Philip Rivers
If you are still a Rivers believer, I am sorry, I truly am. Maybe he’s tired of losing every player that steps onto the field to an injury. Perhaps he has a bet going with someone that he can’t find a new way to crush the hearts of all three Chargers fans every week. Or possibly the stress of having one billion children is finally getting to him. Whatever the case may be, Rivers does not look like himself this season.
If you somehow have stuck with him all season and are in the championship, that’s truly incredible. But you probably also have CMac, Mike Thomas, and every other good player in the league so you should be ok. This is geared more for the people who are looking for a good streaming option and saw a big name with a juicy matchup vs the Raiders. Do not fall for it. Look elsewhere.
Erik Harris and crew bullied him the last time they played, forcing three interceptions, and it won’t just magically get better because they are at home, because their crowd is usually filled with fans of the opposing teams. His ceiling this season is about 25 points, and his floor is under double digits and he is not very likely to have a ceiling game. So don’t take his name and the matchup at surface level. You are better off playing just about anyone else.
Week 16 Championship RB Starts:
Joe Mixon
Like I said last week, Joe Mixon is matchup proof. Jokes aside, if you are a Mixon owner and you took my advice last week, I apologize. He was one of the few misses I had from last week, and it’s been haunting me ever since. So I will take this opportunity to right the ship.
Mixon has been a workhorse lately, but I did not think he could overcome the Patriots buzzsaw. He proved me wrong in big fashion, however. He ripped off 136 yards on the ground and caught 3 passes for another 20. The Bengals have obviously embraced the tank, and they seem to just be force-feeding Mixon no matter how badly they may be losing the game.
While I expected Mixon to get a lot of touches, I didn’t expect him to be able to do much with them against the Pats. But he did, and now he gets the Dolphins, which is a dream matchup for a fantasy RB. If Mixon can put up the numbers he did vs the Pats, you better believe he is going to stomp all over Miami in the Tank Bowl. Lock him in as a top 10 back against this pitiful defense, with the upside to possibly finish as the #1 back on the week.
Mike Boone
The third-string RB for the Vikings could have a big shot here to be the waiver claim that wins you your championship. Dalvin went down again last week with a shoulder injury and it looks like it was a pretty bad one. Coach Zimmer says he should be able to play, but nothing is set in stone yet. And if you consider the Vikings position, Zimmer might realize it makes more sense to hold him out and let him get 100% for the playoffs.
Mattison is also injured and likely will not be available this week, so keep a close eye on the injury reports. If both are unable to go, Boone is in a great position here. He looked just as explosive as he did in the preseason when he came in for Dalvin last week. He ran very aggressively and ripped off a few solid gains. Boone would get a matchup with the Packers this week if he were to start, and Green Bay can be beaten on the ground. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury status of Dalvin and Mattison, but if they can’t go, Boone should be an excellent play here.
RB Sits:
Alvin Kamara
As a Saints fan, and Kamara owner, this pains me. You probably spent a very high pick on this guy. Or if you play in a keeper league as I do, he was one of your keepers. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is look past a name and draft stock, and do what is truly best for your team. But Kamara may not give you the best chance to win.
The thing that made Kamara so special in fantasy was that he could make magical things happen with limited touches. He split touches last year and finished with 1592 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns. Ever since the injury this season, he hasn’t looked like the same superstar runningback. He looks like he is running scared, and is going down easily which is very uncharacteristic for him.
He has only scored 2 touchdowns this whole year and is still splitting carries with Latavius, who looks like the better runner lately. If you play in standard-scoring leagues it’s time for him to go to the bench. Alternately, if you play in a league that gives any type of points for receptions, he can still produce a safe line. If you don’t have anyone else to play over him, he is not a must sit, so don’t take him out for some waiver wire guy. But if you have someone like Kenyan Drake or Austin Ekeler, you might want to consider keeping him on the bench for this one.
Le’Veon Bell
This is another guy like Kamara, that you probably spent some solid draft capital on, but might want to think about benching for the final week of the fantasy season. If you play in a league that gives any kind of points for receptions, he has been ok this season, but he definitely has not been the fantasy league winner that we remember from the Steelers.
Speaking of the Steelers, this will be his first game against them since leaving them behind in that cloud of drama. The Steelers have quietly produced a pretty strong defense this year. Lev has not really received a massive amount of rushing volume this season. Plus, he has only scored a touchdown 4 times this season. In order to produce, he will probably have to make a lot out of his opportunities or fall into the endzone somehow to generate a good fantasy outing. That might be hard to do in this matchup. Like I mentioned with AK, I don’t think you necessarily have to sit him no matter what, but if you have a running back that has a higher touchdown upside, or has a better matchup, it might be worth it to go with them instead.
Week 16 Championship WR Starts:
Tyler Lockett/D.K. Metcalf
Last week, I targeted the Cardinals matchup by naming Jarvis Landry as one of my start candidates. What I forgot to account for, was that no great matchup matters when you are talking about the Browns this year (or any other year, really), because the Browns are also very, very bad. Jarvis went on to do horribly and disappoint fantasy owners. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and ironically enough, if you put a broken clock at quarterback for the Browns it would probably be better than Baker Mayfield.
This is not the case this week, however, as the Cardinals must now turn around and face one of the best offenses in the league. If you have a Seahawks player you should start them. They get to play at home, against the worst passing defense in the league, and they have to win to keep their number one seed. Being a division rival, they are not going to take the Cardinals lightly. Expect them to establish the run early on, and open up some play-action which should allow for Lockett and Metcalf to get a lot of solid chunk yardage, and have some big plays.
Mike Williams: Mike hasn’t had the breakout that many expected from him this year, but he has been a solid producer over the last three games of the season. With teams game planning against Keenan Allen, Big Mike has been able to thrive in some one-on-one matchups. He is a huge, speedy target, and when Rivers is in trouble or near the endzone, he just hucks 50/50 prayers up to him. You’ll see a lot of interceptions come from this but, hey, those only count against Rivers’ points, so no harm to you if you sat him as I told you.
What also happens is that half the time, Williams is able to make a good play on the ball and come down with a big play or a touchdown. Believe it or not, Mike Williams is the leader in yards per catch at 20.7. He is averaging a little over 6 targets and almost 4 receptions over the last 3 weeks, which should give you a solid baseline of about 70-80 yards. Throw in the high upside for a touchdown, and a plus matchup vs a weak Raiders secondary and Big Mike should be able to overcome Phillip’s struggles and post another good fantasy outing.
WR Sits:
Kenny Golladay
Oh my god, they killed Kenny! “They” being the fantasy gods, of course. This young stud WR was having a great season and looked like he could be a WR that could really help propel you through playoffs. And then boom, Stafford gets injured. At first, there was panic. But it was ok because Driskel came in and gave a little hope that he could still get Golladay points. And then he made us doubt it against Washington and Dallas which should have been easy matchups. And then bam, down goes Driskel and in comes David Blough.
Golladay owners everywhere were concerned. Who is this guy? Kenny has had two bad games, how will he get anything done with a third-stringer? Then Blough shocked the world on Thanksgiving and lit up the Bears, and then kept Kenny alive against the Vikings. Golladay owners rejoiced because it looked like it was going to be ok. Then against the Buccaneers and their awful defense, all that hope was stripped away yet again.
The Lions got absolutely steamrolled, and here we are again, with no idea what to do about Kenny G. Well, my friends, I know that it sucks. But you’re going to have to sit him back down on the bench for this one. He’s got a matchup with a top 10 defense against WRs, in Denver. He is going to draw the shadow from Chris Harris Jr. It’s truly sad to have to move on here. But you just can’t trust him in this game. You can probably get a better game out of someone else.
Cooper Kupp: A matchup with the Niners could not have come at a worse time for Kupp. After a dominant start to the season, Goff’s play started to decline, and with it, went Kupp’s elite production. Now, after saving his fantasy weeks with a touchdown for three weeks in a row, he faces the 49ers once again. The 49ers who held him to 4 catches and 17 yards the first time they played.
Obviously, the Niners are missing some starters on defense, but we learned something last time. We learned that Robert Saleh knows the Rams passing offense runs through the slot and tight end position. And he is going to take that away.
People might look at the loss of Richard Sherman and Jaquiski Tartt and think it could set up a big game for Kupp. But Sherman only matches up on the left side with the outside WRs. Also, Jimmie Ward and Marcell Harris are no scrubs. Make no mistake. Saleh will come in with a gameplan to create pressure and take away the easy reads to throw Goff off his game. Which in turn, should make for another lousy performance from Kupp.
Week 16 Championship TE Starts:
Jared Cook
As the season progresses, Cook establishes himself more and more as the number two option in the Saints passing game. Since week 10, Cook has gotten either 50 yards or a touchdown in every single game. He should be able to continue his success against the Titans. They rank in the bottom 10 defenses against tight ends. Look for Cook to draw plenty of targets, and deliver in this plus matchup
Jacob Hollister
Another week, another tight end against the Cardinals. Last week I picked David Njoku as my start, and he ended up being a healthy scratch. But backup Ricky Seals-Jones was able to snag two touchdowns against them. I cannot repeat this enough. If you have a tight end going against the Cardinals, they are going to do well.
Jacob Hollister goes against them this week and has proven to be a trustworthy candidate for Russell Wilson. All the Seahawks should enjoy a nice fantasy day. But if any player is a lock to produce this week, it is Jacob Hollister. At a really shallow position, you will be hard-pressed to find someone you can get guaranteed production from. If you don’t have George Kittle or Travis Kelce, put Hollister in your lineup and reap the rewards.
Defense Start:
Pittsburgh Steelers: Facing a 31st ranked Jets offense, the Steelers should be a lock for a good week this week. When presented with a challenge, Sam Darnold has shown to be turnover prone. And with Adam Gase at the helm, you can’t expect any kind of help making the offense click. The Steelers are going to be extra motivated. They are facing Le’Veon Bell for the first time since he bailed on them. This is not a situation that bodes well for New York. If you have, or can get the Steelers defense, they need to be in your lineup.
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