There are a ton of fun storylines as the Miami Heat open up the NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers, including LeBron James vs. his old team, Anthony Davis vs. Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler validating his choices last offseason. But, putting that aside for a second… What’s going to happen in game one?
Betting sites, of which some of the best can be found at signupoffers.com, have set the over/under line at 217.5 points. That means oddsmakers anticipate, if it’s competitive, a game where both the Heat and the Lakers score just over 100 points apiece, but not quite 110 points apiece.
Here’s why we’d say take over: in the Miami Heat’s 15 playoff games, the combined score has broken 218 points 11 times. The Lakers? 8 of their 15 playoff games. While that math seems simple, the analytic data indicates that Miami could really explode in game one. The Lakers are one of the worst teams, in both volume and shooting percentage, at defending the three-point line. Even when going small limited the attempts against Houston, percentages still indicate a hole in their defense. And Miami? In the 2019-20 season, bubble restart, and post-season the Heat have been in the top five in making three-pointers, both in volume and percentage. Further, they make a tremendous amount of kick out and hand off threes, indicating a paint attack first. The Lakers pride themselves on protecting the basket, and that may be their downfall in giving up threes.
While it’s hard to feel safe betting on something like shooting percentages, it’s also worth noting LA has stumbled early in each series. They lost game one to both Portland and Houston, and Game three to Denver. It appeared almost as if Coach Vogel, LeBron James, and the rest of the Lakers were using the early games to get a feel for the series. It was afterwards that they strategized, game-planned, and exploited.
The game one moneyline for Miami being +170 feels like it’s shaped more by their seed, 5th in the Eastern Conference, than by their play. Much like how a hot Portland came out of the seeding games and controlled their Game one vs. LA, Miami ought to open up strong. The Heat have opened up each series playing their best basketball, with a clear game plan, and been able to dictate the game. +170 is a great value pick for how Miami has played thus far.
LA being -5 in the spread is interesting. Clearly, oddsmakers understand this could easily be a two-possession game. But in looking at two-possession games, LA has only won one game that was within two possessions this post-season: the unforgettable Anthony Davis buzzer-beater in game two vs. Denver. While LeBron James and Rajon Rondo have playoff experience, a two-possession game in the playoffs is something the rest of the Lakers aren’t used to. But the Heat? They’ve won all five games they played that were decided by 5 or less this post-season. So, if experience is any indicator, the Heat look like they’ll operate better under the pressure. Take Miami +5. If LeBron and the Lakers are going to beat Miami, the last three weeks indicate it’s going to need to be by closer to 10-points.
Follow me on Twitter @painsworth512 for more, and give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts!
