We’ve (sort of) officially reached the halfway point of the 2020 NFL season. From the looks of things, there are several teams that are hurtling towards the number one pick in the 2021 draft. I have dubbed this the Race to the Bottom. These teams are all likely in their war rooms readying themselves for next year’s draft. Let’s take a look at the top ten teams in the draft order and their chances at the number one pick. Current draft order courtesy of Tankathon.
(I also addressed this in my most recent episode of A-Round for the Weekend, which you can watch on replay on Facebook, Twitch.tv, and Twitter!)
New York Jets
The team currently in the lead in the NFL’s Race to the Bottom is the New York Jets. With last week’s loss in Kansas City, the Jets are 0-8. They have the worst offense in football. There are several factors at play: bad coaching, predictability, injuries, and lack of talent. Will they win a game this season? Judging from their final eight games, maybe. They face New England twice, Miami, travel to Los Angeles twice to play both the Rams and Chargers, and Cleveland. The Jets could win one of those games, two if they manage to score points. For the second consecutive season, they have less than 100 points in their first eight games.
Chance at the #1 Pick: VERY HIGH
New York Giants
The Giants are in the second spot in the NFL Race to the Bottom. They sit last in the NFC East with a 1-7 record, but could easily be 4-4. Their only big loss this season was a blowout loss in Week 3 to San Francisco. They SHOULD have beaten Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, and probably Tampa Bay. Unlike their crosstown counterparts, the Giants have stayed in games and are playing hard for their first-year head coach, Joe Judge. The rest of their schedule includes their three division rivals in what’s been a down year in the NFC East as well as Cleveland. All are winnable games, but the consequence is falling in the draft order.
Chance at the #1 Pick: MODERATE
Jacksonville Jaguars
At number three in the NFL Race to the Bottom is Jacksonville. The Jaguars won their first game of the 2020 NFL season – and have been on a slide ever since. Doug Marrone’s squad is on a six-game skid of historically horrendous proportions (as mentioned in this column). Will this slide continue? Possibly; their next four games are against Houston, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. But there are some winnable games coming up, the aforementioned Houston and Cleveland being two. Marrone obviously has to tighten up his defense; in their first seven games, the Jags have allowed 217 points. The 1981 Baltimore Colts – who hold the record of 533 points allowed in a 16-game season – allowed 229 in their first seven games and 30+ points in 10 of 16 games.
Chance at the #1 Pick: MODERATE TO HIGH
Miami Dolphins (via Houston)
Currently sitting at fourth overall are the Miami Dolphins. The Houston Texans should be here, but ill-fated deals made by Bill O’Brien depleted draft capital and this pick belongs to the Fins. The fate of this pick will depend on how the Texans finish. The Texans do have several winnable games coming up: Jacksonville, New England, Detroit, Chicago, and Cincinnati. So, this pick might slide down. Will the Texans tank? Knowing they have to give up this pick, they can’t afford to.
Chance at the #1 Pick: LOW
Dallas Cowboys
In fifth place in the NFL Race to the Bottom is the Dallas Cowboys. The hire of head coach Mike McCarthy has been disastrous and injuries at quarterback have set them back. Dak Prescott broke his ankle against the Giants and backup Andy Dalton was concussed in Washington. The Cowboys will start their fourth quarterback of the season (Garrett Gilbert) on Sunday. From the looks of their remaining schedule, they probably have a shot of winning one, maybe two games (Washington on Thanksgiving Day, home vs. Philadelphia in Week 16). So, do the Cowboys tank the season, allow Prescott to seek free agency, and draft one of the top four quarterback prospects? Jerry Jones has a lot of decisions to make.
Chance at the #1 Pick: HIGH
Atlanta Falcons
After starting the season 0-5, the Falcons have won two of their last three games. They’re currently sitting at sixth in the NFL Race to the Bottom. Do they need a quarterback? Probably not. Their biggest needs are on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons lack the same pass rush from previous seasons and have allowed 20 passing touchdowns in eight games. How does the remainder of their schedule look? They face New Orleans and Tampa Bay TWICE in their final eight games and they will play Kansas City and Las Vegas. Oof. They could steal a game against the Saints, Denver, and the LA Chargers.
Chance at the #1 Pick: MODERATE
Washington Team Football Football Team
Ron Rivera’s team sits in seventh in the NFL Race to the Bottom. Like the rest of their NFC rivals, Washington is having a down year, but there is reason to hope. The defense is playing relatively well as they are in the top ten in team sacks (22) and have allowed only 10 passing touchdowns. And they have a favorable four games coming up: the Giants, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Dallas. Three of those teams rank in the bottom in sacks allowed this season. If Washington can solve their own offensive line woes, they could sweep those four games. The consequence? Moving down in the draft order. But a win-starved fanbase might actually be okay with that.
Chance at the #1 Pick: LOW
LA Chargers
The Chargers have their answer at quarterback with Justin Herbert playing out of his mind. He’s probably the lead candidate for NFL Rookie of the Year. The defense was supposed to be the strength of this team, but has failed to hold leads. In four consecutive weeks, the Chargers have blown leads of 17, 17, 16, and 21 points, losing three of those games. Yikes. Fear not, Chargers fan(s): there are winnable games on the schedule: they host Las Vegas this weekend, followed by Miami and the Jets. They’ll also play New England and Atlanta, which are also winnable games. If their defense can hold onto leads, the Chargers will slip down in the draft order and out of the NFL Race to the Bottom.
Chance at the #1 Pick: LOW
New England Patriots
Here is the most curious team out of all of the teams in the NFL Race to the Bottom. The Patriots currently sit in ninth in the 2021 draft order. They have lost four in a row for the first time in 18 seasons. Their record of 17 seasons with 10 or more wins is also in jeopardy. The Patriots have concerns at quarterback: both Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham have not played well. Are there winnable games for the Pats? Yes; they have the Jets twice in their remaining eight games, along with Miamiand both LA teams. Will Bill Belichick tank? I doubt it, but weirder things have happened in New England.
Chance at the #1 Pick: LOW TO MODERATE (DEPENDING ON BELICHICK)
Minnesota Vikings
The final team in the NFL Race to the Bottom is the Vikings. They are currently 10th in the 2021 draft order. It’s been a weird season in the Twin Cities as the Vikes have been probably the streakiest team in the league. They’re competitive one week and get blown out of the water the next. It appears they fixed things in their bye week and have committed to the run game as evidenced in Dalvin Cook’s huge game last week. How does their schedule look? They play division rival Chicago and Detroit twice each, Dallas, Carolina, and Jacksonville. All of these SHOULD be winnable games and I expect the Vikings to fall in the draft order.
Chance at the #1 Pick: VERY LOW
Got your own take about the NFL’s Race to the Bottom? Leave a comment below or hit me up on Twitter: @WhoIsRyanMcC. Don’t forget to check out my podcast No Credentials Required (new episodes every Wednesday) and my live stream show A-Round for the Weekend (most Fridays at 6:30 pm EST).
