Ah, College Football. It is without question my favorite sport in the world. March Madness is amazing, but there is really no argument that College Football is more exciting than it other than personal preference. Maybe its because I am an Alabama fan, and the last decade has been very good to me. Or maybe it’s just because I grew up in a household where both of my parents were obsessed. A divided household, my mom, like myself, rolled with the tide. Every time Saban crushed an opponent it was music to our ears.
On the other side of the household you ask? My poor father, bless his soul, was a Nebraska fan. Granted, my father got to witness Nebraska in their prime, and what a prime it was. Kids, I promise, Nebraska wasn’t always a dumpster fire, in fact they were the powerhouse of College Football for awhile.
As much as I love College Football, there is an issue that is becoming more apparent than ever. I bring up and start this tale of my upbringing into the world of College Football degeneracy for one reason. These two teams perfectly encapsulate the current state of arguably the most important part of College Football, recruiting. As we sit here, there’s a College Football Arms Race, and it is one that will decide the future of the sport.
The Rich Get Richer
There is an arms race in College Football right now, make no mistake about it. It was an issue that, one would hope, would have been solved with time. However; the unprecedented reign of King Saban has presented unique challenges for College Football. Don’t get me wrong, Saban and Alabama aren’t the only culprit in this, far from it. The next best example of the arms race is Ohio State.
You see, the teams we typically agree are the best teams in the nation have a unique trifecta going. First, they recruit better than the rest. Second, they have proven that they know how to coach top level talent. Third and final, that they know how to develop top tier talent.
Think back to my Texas Article not long ago. We talked about the first round drought that Texas has experienced since 2006, only sending six guys in the first round. Conversely, Alabama and Saint Nick have sent 33 guys to the first round of the NFL draft since 2009. For kids that have NFL aspirations, these numbers absolutely matter. When the difference between first and second round of the NFL draft is twenty million dollars, it becomes easy to see why.
Lets take a look at this years recruiting class. Before I drop the facts on you, let’s talk about programs that currently have five-star guys. Currently, there are thirteen schools that have guys committed to them that are ranked five-stars by 247sports. Not all the current five-star guys are committed yet, so that number could go up!
The Current Arms Race
Now into the part that will worry most of college football. In the class of 2021, there are 34 guys who are rated as five-stars. Of the thirteen schools that have a five-star recruit committed to them, eight of those schools only have one five-star guy committed. That means that five of those schools are stockpiling multiple five-star recruits.
Right now, Alabama has six five stars committed to its 2021 class, and don’t blink because they are very seriously in the running for (I believe) two more. And some great four stars. The tide class is almost full, so the selection process will be stringent. Ohio State has four guys who are rated as five-stars. Georgia has two, Miami has two, and Clemson has two as well.
If things didn’t progress, that means that five schools would have half of the nations five star talent. Sadly, Alabama, Ohio State, or both WILL (put me down for it) get another five-star before the year is over. Essentially, College Football has entered an arms race, one that I don’t see an end to in the near future. Sure, Saban won’t coach forever, but I have a sneaking suspicion that they might just be prepping Steve Sarkisian to take the reins of the program when Saban rides of into the sunset as a glorious, majestic goat.
Even if there is a diminished result from Alabama, you would then need to hope that Ryan Day’s success at Ohio State is short lived and that Clemson begins to derail. This isn’t taking into account that Oregon is beginning to emerge as a big time player on the national stage for premiere recruits.
The why is easy, and something we have already discussed. These top programs are sending kids to the draft in troves every year. It’s a safer bet to be placed in going to Ohio State to get to the NFL, then betting they will be going to Nebraska.
Asking the Questions
The question that must be asked now is, what’s the fix? For that, I provide this. Oregon breaking into the top mold (albeit they are still a ways from doing it consistently) is a good sign for college football as a whole. It would mean that there is hope for other teams to break into the big boys club. Most importantly, your team needs to win and send guys to the draft.
Oklahoma versus Texas is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, and I was blessed to live right in the middle of it. But as it currently stands, Oklahoma has the number one QB in the nation for the class of 2021 committed to join the ranks. They may not have the booster support or the allure of the Texas Longhorns, but they are finding an easier time on the recruiting trail. Kids have their mind on their money, and rightfully so. Just look at Denton Ryan star Billy Bowman Jr., who recently decommitted from Texas just to commit to Oklahoma a week later.
If we take a look at Titletown, there is more bad news. This was the year Bama was supposed to fall off in recruiting. In April the Tide class sat somewhere around the 50th best class in the nation per 247sports. Now? Well now they are the number one class in the nation, with their sights set on retaining that title.
The End of the Arms Race
Parity is key for College Football. It’s why, even as an Alabama fan, I am rooting for teams like Northwestern, Maryland, Oregon, and, as much as I hate to say it, even teams like Florida and Miami. College Football is simply better when there is more depth to the competition. There are plenty of great teams in College Football, there is no doubt about it. But there is a difference in being great, and operating on the level of Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Sure, Georgia hasn’t won the big game yet, but the reason that you fear the Dawgs every season is their incredible talent pool.
I will step off my Soap box now, because to be honest there isn’t a simple fix. Depending on how you look at it, this may not even be an issue. If the goal of College Football is parity, then it is paramount that other teams be able to fill in the gaps to create said parity. If, however, the goal of college football is meritocracy, then a simple expansion of the playoffs should massively help.
The problem, I fear, is most people expect that an expansion of the college football playoffs will create more parity, and it will. But I fear that it will create parity on a much smaller scale than those were hoping it would. An upset would happen, as they always do, it’s why we play the game. Personally I don’t think they would happen as frequently as people hope. They would happen, sure, but the consistency of talent in football is much different than basketball. The only thing that can be said for certain though, is that college football is currently going through an arms race unlike the arms races we have seen in the past. Alabama and Ohio State will both likely break the record for best recruiting classes of all time this year, and will perfectly encapsulate the stockpiling of talent in CFB.
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