With the second pick in the 2021 draft now secured, New York Jets General Manager Joe Douglas has a lot to think about between now and April 29th.
Through 14 weeks, there was a silver lining to the Jets’ ineptitude. As the losses piled up, the best passing prospect to come out of college in years became closer and closer to within reach. Heisman-finalist Trevor Lawrence and his golden locks promised to solve all the problems for the bumbling, stumbling, always-in-their-own-way Jets.
138 seconds of Trevor Lawrence throwing deep balls. pic.twitter.com/yY9fAudBYc
— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) December 22, 2020
Then They Won
Fans of the team were considerably less ecstatic…
Following their Week 15 win over the Los Angeles Rams and their Week 16 win over the Cleveland Browns, the Jets are now locked into the second overall pick in the upcoming draft.
Suddenly, the future becomes much murkier. In all likelihood, Lawrence will be selected number one overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. So, what does Joe Douglas do when the Jets are on the clock?
This decision, monumental in its own right, isn’t even the most important one Douglas will have to make this offseason.
Douglas’ First Job: Find Gase’s Replacement
Head Coach Adam Gase is as good as gone, and Douglas must decide who comes next.
Admittedly, the Jets head coaching vacancy looked considerably more appealing when it appeared that Lawrence would be donning Gotham Green, but that’s not to say the position still doesn’t hold a lot of appeal.
Coaching under the bright lights of New York is as daunting a job as any. Fail, as Gase repeatedly has, and the media will tear you to shreds. Conversely, if you can turn the team’s fortunes around and win some games, as Gase hasn’t, you’ll be seen as the franchise’s savior.
The appeal of the Jets head coaching position is bolstered by the fact that there isn’t a whole lot set-in-stone with the roster’s current make-up. Whoever fills the vacancy will have the ability to make an indelible impression on the direction the Jets move forward in, and that all begins with the second overall pick.
The Darnold Dilemma: What to Do with Pick Two
The second item on Douglas’ agenda centers on the second overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
It’s safe to say that the stakes are high. The last time the Jets had such a high selection? 1996. With the first overall pick 32 years ago, the Jets selected Wide Receiver Keyshawn Johnson.
History aside, the Jets front office has a key question to consider before they make their selection on April 29th: Has the time come to move on from Sam Darnold?
Douglas, in tandem with his newly hired head coach, must determine whether or not Sam is salvageable. The general manager and head coach may come to the conclusion that Gase and his broken system deserve as much blame for Darnold’s struggles as the quarterback does himself. Behind a shaky offensive line and without any potent weapons, did the franchise ever truly do enough to give Darnold the chance to reach his full potential?
The predicament boils down to whether or not management sees enough potential in Darnold to give him one last chance and let him play out the final year of his rookie contract under a new coach and a fresh system.
If Darnold’s proneness to injury and inefficiencies can’t be overlooked, however, the Jets could cut their losses and spend the second overall selection on a new quarterback.
If they find Darnold is not their guy, the next question Douglas must answer becomes, who?
The Next Best Thing: Justin Fields or Zach Wilson
Against tougher opponents, like No. 9 Indiana, Fields struggled (18/30, 2 TD, 3 INT).
At one point, Ohio State’s Justin Fields was the clear-cut number two quarterback prospect in the 2021 draft class. With a strong arm and impressive accuracy, Fields impressed scouts… at least until he started playing against half-decent defenses. While the numbers he put up against second-rate teams were certainly impressive, Fields struggled to find the same kind of rhythm against top-ranked defenses. Such performances led scouts to question his decision-making and pocket-presence.
The consensus among the experts seems to be that there is a significant drop-off between Lawrence and Fields, but not all agree.
“I don’t think the gap between Lawrence and Fields is as big as everyone is saying. Tight window throws, deep out cuts, getting to his No. 2 and sometimes his No. 3, seeing the field horizontally, having wider field vision, handling the pocket – I was really impressed.”
Former Super Bowl winning quarter back and current NFL analyst Trend Dilfer on Justin Fields, per 247Sports
Another option at No. 2 could be Zach Wilson, the quarterback out of BYU.
Highest-graded QBs in College Football
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 23, 2020
1. Zach Wilson, BYU – 95.5
2. Mac Jones, Alabama – 95.3
3. Sam Howell, UNC – 92.6
4. Justin Fields, Ohio St – 92.4
4. Grayson McCall, Coastal – 92.4 pic.twitter.com/Xaf4mcTgox
Like Fields, Wilson played exceptionally well for much of the season, albeit against sub-par defenses. Wilson has shown elite ability to throw into tight windows and use his legs to pick up first downs. Scouts, however, are unsure if he can replicate his successes against NFL-caliber defenses.
Does Anyone Really Know Anything?
To determine whether or not those quarterbacks who were successful in college will have what it takes to become mainstays in the NFL seems to be little more than a shot-in-the-dark.
In the 2017 draft, nine players were selected before Patrick Mahomes, including Mitchell Trubisky!
In the 2018 draft, Darnold (Third) was selected before Josh Allen (Eighth) and LaMar Jackson (No. 32).
There is no question that Lawrence will be the first quarterback selected in the draft, but who’s to say which quarterback will have the most fruitful NFL career? For all we know, Lawrence could turn out to be the next JaMarcus Russel.
Eight Additional Picks and a Lot of Cap Space
All-in-all, the Jets hold nine picks in the upcoming draft, including six picks within the draft’s first 96 slots.
In his brief stint with the Jets, Joe Douglas has executed several trades to secure these picks, while also opening up a mountain of cap space. The moves have given the Jets a lot of flexibility to acquire young talent and, if they choose, make a splash in free agency.
In addition, if the Jets decide to give Darnold one more year to prove his worth in a new system, they could trade down in the draft for additional picks (if they think the guy they want will still be on the board at that point) or find young talent to surround the quarterback.
If they choose to draft a non-quarterback, perhaps they draft a stud wide receiver like Alabama’s DeVonta Smith or LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase.
Could the Jets use their cap space to acquire a star wide-receiver in Chris Godwin or JuJu Smith-Schuster, as the Bills did with Stefon Diggs? It’s possible. The franchise could also opt to sign another piece to further bolster their offensive line, if they so choose.
The point here is that there are options, and nothing is off the table.
In Joe Douglas, Jets Nation Should Trust
Through 20 years in the NFL, Douglas has worked with three organizations, two of which have won Super Bowls during his tenure.
Douglas got his start as a scout for the Baltimore Raven. While there, he had the opportunity to learn under the legendary Ozzie Newsome, the first-ever black general manager in the NFL. Newsome has had only good things to say of Douglas.
“Joe’s very thorough — very, very thorough. He’s a very good listener, and he has an unbelievable keen eye for talent. He has a way to describe a player that everybody in the meeting can understand what that player is and what he’s about.”
Ozzie Newsome on what Douglas brings to the table as GM of the Jets, per the New York Post
A History of Success
Douglas, as Newsome notes, has the ability to identify undervalued assets. In 2006, it was Douglas who encouraged the Ravens to draft Flacco. In 2013, it was Flacco who threw for 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the Ravens’ second Super Bowl victory in franchise history.
As Vice President of Player Personnel for the Philadelphia Eagles from 2016-2019, Douglas played what Eagles General Manager Howie Roseman called an “integral role” in constructing the roster that won the Super Bowl in 2018.
Joe Douglas’ First Year with the Jets
Douglas got his first crack as a general manager when the Jets hired him following the 2019 draft and free-agency period. Meaning, he only has one draft with the franchise under his belt.
In 2020, Douglas and the Jets selected offensive tackle Mekhi Becton with the No. 11 pick, and wide receiver Denzel Mims with the No. 59 pick.
From the first game tape he watched, Joe Douglas knew Mekhi Becton was special.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) May 15, 2020
One Jets Drive is back: https://t.co/zZ9uSF1GYW pic.twitter.com/ub6ad6BGxK
Becton, in his rookie season, has been nothing short of a force of nature. At 6-foot-7 and 364 pounds, Becton promises to be a staple on the Jets offensive line for years to come. He’s already being compared to Hall-of-Famers by teammate Frank Gore.
“He’s a beast, man. When I first saw him out there at training camp, I knew he was different. [Nothing] phases him… when I saw him, right away, I knew this kid could be special, as long as he just keeps on working.”
Jets running-back Frank Gore on the rookie OT, Mekhi Becton, per YahooSports
Rightly so. Becton pushes all-pro defenders around like rag-dolls. Check out some footage from the Jet’s Week 13 matchup against the Oakland Raiders.
Mims has shown some promise of his own. Despite playing in only seven games so far this season due to COVID precautions and injuries sustained to both hamstrings, Mims has 22 catches for 342 yards.
Whether or not Mims has an elite receiver upside remains to be seen. Though, he has already proven his work ethic and determination to improve his game to both teammates and coaches. When the Jets players handed out team-awards before the game against the Browns, Mims was voted as “The Rookie who Acts Like a Pro”.
The Jets Future Depends on Douglas’ Decisions
For Douglas to build the Jets roster into a unit capable of competing in the NFL, it’s imperative that the ownership, including CEO Christopher Johnson, fully hand him the reigns.
Without outside voices and outside help, Douglas will have the control necessary to re-tool the franchise and put them in a position to compete down the road.
The football guys need to be making the football decisions. Let Douglas make the decisions, and there might just be some light at the end of the runway.
