The NFL announced its salary cap for the 2021 season. The magic number is $182.5 million. That is a drop of $198.2 million from last year. As a result of the reduced cap, teams are cutting players so quickly that The Flash would struggle to keep up. Now, before we continue, don’t get your panties in a twist; I’m not proclaiming that the NFL will die. However, the pandemic induced salary cap drop is seeing teams scramble around to meet the threshold. Players are losing jobs at an alarming rate, and currently, there isn’t a big pot of gold at the end of this blue rainbow. Perhaps, I’m the grumpy, troll-sized leprechaun ready to compound the NFL’s problems.
The Music’s Stopped in the NFL’s Game of Musical Chairs
It’s lovely living in a world where the money is an endless river, flowing through the wallets of the NFL. Sadly, the NFL, nor anyone else for that matter, saw a global pandemic emerge to wreak havoc, like when Damien Darkh released a virus in Star City. In one Thanos like snap, the world stopped. So did the NFL world. Suddenly, the NFL picture changed from the Kansas City Chiefs inking Patrick Mahomes to a historically lucrative contract to the realization of no fans or even no season.
Luckily, the world got a full NFL season, albeit most games saw limited or no fans at all. The lack of gameday sales, such as tickets or concessions, contributed to that revenue drop. On the other hand, If you allow me to play devil’s advocate, should the NFL franchises take such a hit on attendance sales? Contrast an NFL season to a baseball season, NFL teams only play eight home games in a season. MLB teams play 81 home games. The NFL is nowhere near as reliant on home attendances as MLB teams are. Therefore, a small drop in finances shouldn’t create this chaotic situation the world is witnessing right now.
The NFL personified a customer at Arby’s with all the money in the world. Lucrative contracts got thrown out to anyone that could wear a helmet and pads. Subsequently, Covid happened, and the musical merry-go-round stopped. Now those premium contracts are hindering the same franchises that were happy to dish them out. A culture of excess saw the NFL spend like never before, only for no-one to realize that there may be a rainy day incoming. Now, it’s left players in a very tough spot.
What About The Players?
There is a shelf life for NFL players. That is the cold reality of a physical sport that can cause significant injuries for the athletes playing it. Therefore, players are entitled to ask for what they want in terms of salary so they can maximize their earnings. With the salary cap reduced, players are going to get cut or forced to restructure deals. For those that get offered a restructure, they are ok. For the players that get released, free agency will prove challenging. The only teams that can clear sufficient cap space are those that are going through a massive rebuild. The Detroit Lions are the best example of that.
The Lions could offer free agents good money. However, do those free agents wish to spend time on a rebuilding franchise that may win five games in 2021? I’m biased, and even I’m enduring a tough time considering that. Then, there is the other option. Star free agent players such as Kenny Vaccaro, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown and Kyle Van Noy may opt to take a cheap one-year deal with a contending team. The offseason could evolve into a baseball offseason as free agents wait forever for offers that they like. Due to the salary cap drop, teams will restructure star players such as Christian McCaffery and Patrick Mahomes. The others could get left out in the cold. That is not a good place to be. If only the NFL possessed an option that could alleviate these salary cap problems.
The NHL, Mickey Mouse and TNF
That option is a new television rights contract. Roger Goodell must negotiate a deal that’s money laden to help offset the revenue losses that teams incurred in 2020 and may incur in 2021. The pressure in on the commissioner, the NFL’s worked away at this deal for a long time. The owners and NFLPA want to know where they stand. If Rog waits any longer, it won’t just be his hair that is red. The fact that the deal is yet to get signed shows that Goodell is struggling to get it over the line. The NFL wants a considerable increase; the TV networks don’t.
The two sticking points are ESPN and Thursday Night Football. Let’s talk about TNF first. As a Lions fan who loves Thanksgiving football, TNF sucks. It almost always features a lousy matchup, something like the Jets v Broncos or Miami vs Jacksonville. FOX doesn’t wish to renew TNF; CBS, NBC and ESPN/ABC don’t want it. It forces the NFL to sell that package to an alternate provider for less than a box of cookies. They won’t get their increase from TNF. The TNF package is getting the Black Friday treatment. It’s like the waffle-maker at Target; the only way it gets sold is if it gets given away.
Will Mickey Mouse Reject the NFL?
Then there is the worldwide leader in sports, ESPN. Twenty years ago, it was unthinkable that ESPN would drop the NFL. That situation is definitely in play for the House of Mouse owned company. ESPN is the silver tuna for the NFL. That is where the dollars will roll in. Conversely, ESPN doesn’t want to pay through the nose. They also don’t need to; yesterday saw the company announce a deal with the NHL as the primary rights holder. ESPN is also the principal rights holder for the CFB Championship, NBA, SEC, and UFC. We’re living in a world where Mickey Mouse, Elsa and Spiderman are prepared to flip the bird to Roger Goodell. The NFL is in a difficult situation; there is no leverage in the negotiations. They need the money, yet, the networks don’t necessarily need them.
What Next?
The NFL will not die. The league is going nowhere. Nevertheless, if the power brokers cant increase league revenues, the game could change. Franchises can’t increase ticket prices, its a slap in the face to fans who couldn’t go to games in 2020. Therefore, the NFL requires other lines of income to redress the balance. If that doesn’t happen, the NFL could enter a new phase of its 100-year history. The top players will still roll in the Benjamin’s, though that could change for the non-elite players. If the cap rises incrementally, not substantially, the Moneyball era may arrive into the NFL. Teams will desire value to blend with their high earners.
Ultimately, the NFL is at a crossroads regarding its future prosperity. Roger Goodell’s career is on the line. His job is to line the owners’ pockets with dollar bills. The NFLPA wants an increase in revenues as well. The covid pandemic changed the world forever. Is the NFL about to change with it? Only time will tell. Right now, the NFL is sitting at the poker table with the cards stacked against them. Hopefully, Goodell channels his inner Danny Ocean if he doesn’t, well, to paraphrase a famous movie quote, “In the NFL, everybody’s gotta watch everyone else.” There is no happy ending if the NFL doesn’t increase its revenue exponentially. Like every thriller/scary movie, you don’t dare look behind the curtain.
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