It’s the race that every driver fears, and the race every fan can’t wait for. The NASCAR Cup Series heads south to the Talladega Superspeedway. The 2.66-mile superspeedway is always full of excitement and should produce some more. The Geico 500 will take place Sunday, April 25 at 2 p.m. on FOX. The 500-mile race will be 188 laps with stages consisting of 60-60-68 laps. Denny Hamlin will start on the pole alongside Joey Logano. Talladega has been notorious for producing surprise winners over the years but lately, the favorites have stolen the show.
Surprise Winners Reputation Overblown?
Talladega has the reputation of producing surprise winners but it could be argued that not since David Ragan’s upset win in 2013 has there been a surprise winner. You could argue the closest surprise winners are Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Aric Almirola. They each have just two career victories but they’ve both had success outside their wins. Stenhouse Jr. ranks third among active drivers in average finish at Talladega, while Almirola had eight straight top 10 finishes before crashing out in last year’s fall race.
Favorites Look to Pick Up Another Talladega Win
The three Penske Racing drivers, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, as well as Denny Hamlin should all be looked at as favorites on Sunday. The four drivers are the only active drivers with multiple wins at Talladega. Keselowski leads the way with five, Logano sits at three, while Hamlin and Blaney each have two.
Keselowski may have the best resume of anyone at Talladega but his recent run is lackluster. He has six straight finishes outside the top 10 since his most recent Talladega win in 2017. He’s led over 20 laps in three of those six races so the speed is there but he has to stay out of trouble.
Similar to Keselowski, Logano hasn’t got the finish he deserved lately at Talladega. Three straight finishes outside the top 10 aren’t ideal but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Going back to his win in 2015, Logano has led over 20 laps in seven of his last 11 Talladega races, including a race-high 70 in his 2018 win. If he can put himself out front when it counts, he’s as good as anyone holding off the pack.
Blaney and Hamlin Look to Extend Their Winning Streak at Talladega
Hamlin and Blaney are very similar in their Talladega careers. Blaney had just two top 10 finishes in his 10 career starts at the track. He followed that up with back-to-back wins before crashing out of last fall’s race. Hamlin had a bit of an inconsistent run during the mid-2010s at Talladega. His 2014 win followed four straight finishes outside the top 10. After the win, he finished outside the top 15 in three of the following four Talladega races. He’s been successful as of late with four top-five finishes in his last five Talladega races, including a win in last year’s fall race. Hamlin has been up front all of 2021 and I don’t expect that to change here.
Can Longshots Pull Another Upset?
While it’s been a while since we’ve seen an upset winner at Talladega, we saw one earlier this year in the Daytona 500 with Michael McDowell. Daytona is the most comparable track to Talladega so drivers who typically run well at one can excel at the other.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. can certainly pull off another win but I wouldn’t say he’s a longshot considering his success on superspeedways.
How about we go with some veteran experience in Ryan Newman? His 38 starts at Talladega are third-most among active drivers. He’s finished top 10 in five of the last seven Talladega races. He nearly won the 2019 fall race before being beat by Blaney in a photo finish. Newman crashed out of the last two Daytona races but he had a run of five top 10 finishes in six races before that.
One Driver Makes Their Cup Series Debut While Another Gets Snubbed
After 12 years in the Camping World Truck Series, Jennifer Jo Cobb was finally set to make her Cup Series debut at Talladega. Unfortunately, NASCAR would not approve her to race. The decision appeared to be a combination of lack of practice, as well as a stricter approval process.
Jennifer Jo Cobb not approved to run Cup at Dega.
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 19, 2021
–NASCAR: Decision based on performance/quality.
–NASCAR has been more stringent w/ recent Cup approvals.
–She was yrs ago OK’d for Cup but if don’t run in series for a yr, must get re-approved.
–NOT result of Richmond-Norm
Harrison Burton, on the other hand, was approved and will make his first career Cup Series start. Harrison, the son of former NASCAR driver Jeff Burton, will drive the No. 96 Toyota for Gaunt Brothers Racing. Burton has four career Xfinity Series wins and sits third in the point standings.
Final Thoughts for Talladega
You really never know what you’re going to get when it comes to Talladega. I would expect Hamlin and Logano to stay up front most of the day but one big wreck could turn things upside down. The uncertainty of Talladega means anyone can win on Sunday.
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