It’s been three years since Jon Gruden signed his ten year $100 million contract. In his second stint with the Raiders Gruden hasn’t come close to recreating the success he had coaching the team from 1998-2001. The team has struggled since Gruden has taken over, posting a record of 19-29. The Kansas City Chiefs are a juggernaut, the Los Angeles Chargers are trending upward, which leaves the Raiders potentially looking down only at the Denver Broncos. Being stuck in no man’s land is a terrible place to be for an NFL franchise. Not good enough to be a playoff team, not bad enough to be in the lottery, just stuck in franchise purgatory. What should we expect from this upcoming Las Vegas Raiders season? Here is the Las Vegas Raiders 2021 Season Preview.
Offensive Strengths
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The Las Vegas Raiders ranked tenth overall in points scored last season. Derek Carr ranked eleventh in both total passing yards and passing touchdowns. Carr’s settled into Gruden’s offense, setting career highs in both passing yards and QBR this past season. As much as Derek Carr’s future with the franchise has been in doubt the last few years, he’s very much one of the team’s main strengths. Despite speculation about the Raiders going a different direction at quarterback, Carr remains under center, as he should. Quarterback, despite speculation, should not be an area of concern for this franchise. Carr isn’t the best quarterback in the league, but he’s certainly well above average. Carr was able to be productive this past season despite a lack of serious receiving threats.
While there hasn’t been great options at the wide receiver position over his tenure, Carr has had the fortune of Darren Waller’s services the past three seasons. Waller has been an absolute monster the last two seasons, especially this past year. He finished his first Pro Bowl season with 107 receptions, 1,196 yards, and nine touchdowns. Waller is the perfect modern day tight end. Great frame, super athletic, with wide receiver type ball skills. Their offensive totals wouldn’t have looked nearly as good at the end of the season if it wasn’t for Waller’s dominance.
Their run game has also been a major strength for them as well. Josh Jacobs has been extremely productive since entering the league. In his first two years in the league he’s amassed 2,215 rushing yards, to go along with 19 rushing touchdowns. Jacobs is consistent and hungry when running the football. His receiving abilities have also shown growth, as he increased his reception count and receiving yards this past season. With the offseason addition of Kenyan Drake, this rushing attack will be top fifteen in the league.
Quiet Receiving Room & Offensive Line Rebuild
Nelson Agholor and Tyrell Williams have both departed for new teams. I’ve covered Henry Ruggs’ potential in a previous article. Given the receiver room the team has, Gruden and Mayock cannot afford another season like the one Ruggs just had. John Brown was a solid pick up in the offseason, and is someone with a similar skill set to Ruggs who can mentor him. Other than these two, it’s Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones, and Willie Snead IV, amongst others. Bryan Edwards is definitely a guy to keep on eye on. Additionally, Hunter Renfrow has proven to surpass his draft selection in regards to production. John Brown is a known commodity, but this receiver room’s success will fall on Ruggs and Edwards to show out. While the Waller centric passing offense has proven to be efficient, they absolutely need these two young guys to step up.
Starting receivers from last year’s Las Vegas Raiders team found new homes, as did quality starting offensive linemen. Three time Pro Bowler Rodney Hudson is now an Arizona Cardinal. Trent Brown is now back on the New England Patriots. Gabe Jackson is now a Seattle Seahawk. The team selected Alex Leatherwood with the seventeenth pick of this year’s draft. While the pick rose a lot of eyebrows, the team selected him with knowledge of their offensive line departures. This wasn’t the best pick, but when you think a player is your guy, I can’t fault you for taking him. Especially before any of these rookies have taken an NFL snap and we get to see how good everyone really is. At the end of the day the Raiders are rolling out an unproven offensive line unit, that is definitely a step down from last year’s group.
Defensive Struggles & Defensive Line Additions
The Raiders defense was outright awful last season, and is by far their most glaring weakness. They gave up the third most points per game in the league (29.9). They got slashed on the ground, and in the air, both to equal effect against all of their opponents. The Raiders defense struggled to take down opposing team’s quarterbacks, generating the fourth lowest amount of sacks in the league (21). They didn’t intercept a lot of passes, or cause a lot of fumbles, ranking towards the bottom of the league in both categories. Clelin Ferrell has been a bust after being selected fourth overall in 2019. Maxx Crosby has been the team’s lone quality pass rusher. Unfortunately even his unexpected production can’t fill the expectations that the team had for Ferrell.
The team went out and signed Yannick Ngakoue and Soloman Thomas this offseason, in a clear attempt to address their defensive line. Ngakoue has come out and said that he and Crosby are going to be the “best duo” of pass rushers in the league. While I don’t agree with this, I do think Ngakoue is a very solid pass rusher, and will help upgrade the defensive line. They also drafted defensive end Malcolm Koonce in the third round of this year’s draft to try and add some more depth.
This isn’t a defensive line that’s going to keep your team’s quarterback up at night. It’s not he best defensive line group in the league, but it is improved from last year. The Raiders addressed their needs here through free agency in the short term. If Ngakoue’s claim is even close to coming to fruition, Mayock and Gruden would be ecstatic.
Linebacker Stagnation & Secondary Hope
The team’s linebacking group remains essentially the same. Unaddressed in both the draft and free agency. I don’t fully fault the Alex Leatherwood pick, as noted above, but at the same time I would have probably taken Jamin Davis with the seventeenth pick. Then have went offensive line the next round. Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah in the second round would have also been great after selecting Leatherwood. Either way, for whatever reason, the Raiders will roll out essentially the same linebacker group. Nick Kwiatkoski and Cory Littleton are the guys to keep an eye on. Not bad players, but not players that will elevate your defense like we see great linebackers do for playoff teams around the league.
There’s a lack of young talent to be excited about when it comes to the Raider’s defensive line and linebackers. However, in their secondary, there’s definitely players that have potential. Trevon Moehrig, Jonathan Abram, Trayvon Mullen, and Damon Arnette, are all young and have promise. It’s a lot to ask these young players to carry the secondary of this team, given their lack of experience, but that is the task at hand. Karl Joesph and Casey Hayward Jr are quality veteran players that will fill this void of experience, and play valuable minutes. Defensively, the secondary is where Raiders fans should be placing their hope for progression.
Las Vegas Raiders Season Verdict
Missing on high draft picks, struggling to sign impact free agents, have both stifled their progression as a team during the second Gruden era. They have some young players with room to grow, and they’ve hit on a few picks, but it hasn’t been enough.
Derek Carr has done very well with what he’s been given over the years. This season it seems like he has less help than he’s ever had before. He still has Waller and a solid running game, but the inexperienced wide receiver and offensive line groups are huge question marks.
The front office has tried to address the defense. They’ve improved their defensive line and secondary. Again, there is a lack of experience on this side of the ball as well.
At the end of the day this team has question marks all over the roster. This franchise has been stuck in purgatory for several years. On paper they are a worse team than they were last year, which leads me to believe that this is the year they exit franchise purgatory. A 9-8 record for this team is the absolute best they can hope for, and I really don’t see that happening. I would expect a record under .500 for this team, and for them to enter a rebuild with or without Gruden in the coming years.
