Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in the 2014-2015 season, it’s been exclusive to Power Five teams. Only ten teams have played in a college football playoff game. The lack of parity, in a system that was built to create it, has become the major knock on college football, and the reason there is talk on expanding it. I believe this is the year it finally changes. The Cincinnati Bearcats, out of the American Athletic Conference, have the talent, experience, and coach to become the first Group of Five to make the College Football Playoff.
Cincinnati, led by Luke Fickell, has dominated the AAC for the last three seasons. In the last three years, Cincinnati is 31-6 overall. All six of those losses have come away from home, and against ranked teams. In 2020, they went 9-0 with an average margin of win of nearly three touchdowns. Earning a chance to play with the big boys, with a date with #9 Georgia in the Peach Bowl.
The 2020 Peach Bowl
It’s important to discuss that Peach Bowl, so let’s do so before we move forward.
Georgia had a dominant defense last season – one of the strongest, fastest, and most talented in the country. JT Daniels, a 2021 Heisman candidate and former 5-star quarterback, had taken over for Stenson Bennett.
Daniels threw for over 1,000 yards and a 10 to 2 touchdown/interception ratio in four starts. Georgia’s offense was stagnant at times at the beginning of the season; yet under Daniels, they scored 37 points per game in their final four games. He was exceptional in the Peach Bowl, throwing for 392 yards and a touchdown. And deservedly has as much hype as any quarterback in the country heading into the year.
Even so, Cincinnati was a last-second 53-yard field goal from winning that game. Cincinnati shut down the Georiga rushing attack. They gave the Bulldogs all they could handle. And it’s worth noting they did so while missing two starters in the secondary, both of whom were All-Conference players.
That Georgia team – albeit with losses on the defensive end – is a preseason Top Five team, and a pick of many to make the playoffs this season. Cincinnati showed they belong with the big boys and was not only happy to be there, but ready to compete with the best in the nation.
The Offense
Desmond Ridder is a superstar under center and the unquestioned leader of the team. The rushing attack was one of the best in the country. They return four of their top five leading receivers from a deep wide receiver room. The only question mark is the offensive line, but I don’t see it being a massive issue.
Cincy will have to replace both tackles, one of whom was first-team All-Conference, but have six linemen returning with starting experience. The addition of James Tunstall, a first-team All-FCS player from Stony Brook, will be a factor. They’ll also have 48 career starts returning, although the top-end might not be as strong, they’ll have plenty of depth up front.
The x-factor of the offense is clear, and this team will go as far as Ridder can take them. This will be his fourth year as the starter, an anomaly in today’s era of college football. Ridder has racked up 6,905 yards and 57 touchdowns through the air; and another 1,800 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground in his three years.
A dynamic dual-threat option who has experience in big games, Ridder will be one of the top two quarterbacks in the American. The passing numbers have improved each year, and with a strong WR core coming back those could take a sizable jump in 2021.
The rushing attack loses star-running back Gerrid Doaks; but sophomore Jerome Ford saw plenty of action last season, running for 503 yards and 8 touchdowns whilst averaging over six yards a carry.
Luke Fickell and the Defense
Fickell is one of the best coaches in college football, and especially so on the defensive side of the ball. You can agree or not, but the results speak for themselves. It took one season for Fickell to turn around the Bearcats after going 4-8 in 2017. They’ve gone 31-6 since which in large part is due to their defense.
Cincy allowed 428.5 yards and over 30 points per game in Fickell’s first year in 2017. In the three years since they’re giving up 18.2 points and 330.6 yards per game. Under Fickell, they’ve been head and shoulders the best defense in the American.
And there isn’t much of a reason to see that stopping this season.
The Bearcats return seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, including an All-American corner Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant who led the AAC in interceptions a season ago. The secondary finished second in the country in pass efficiency defense and get back their top-two guys. With solid depth behind those two, they figure to be a top secondary in the country.
The defensive line is mean and nasty, led by Myjai Sanders – a first-team All-Conference player last season. They return eight of their top eleven tacklers and expect to have more depth than last season on the defensive line. And with Fickell at the helm, there isn’t a reason to think they aren’t one of the best defenses in the country.
Schedule
The schedule is really what separates Cincy from the previous Group of Five hopefuls. There have been G5 teams that go undefeated, but none have won two road games over Power Five teams. And if they can go undefeated, it will be virtually impossible to leave them out, especially for a second straight year.
Cincinnati will open with a couple of tune-up games against Miami-Ohio and FCS Murray State. Then comes back-to-back games that will make, or break, their playoff chances.
Week 3 – @ Indiana
I believe that Cincinnati will actually be a slight road favorite in this game. Indiana doesn’t have the speed, strength, or athleticism that will present massive problems. Granted, the Hoosiers’ defense is stout. But how well does the Big Ten really prepare you for a quarterback as athletic as Desmond Ridder?
Even though Michael Penix Jr. (and 16 other starters) return, the Hoosiers had an overrated 2020 season. Outside of battling back from 35-7 against Ohio State, they beat up on a down Big Ten East, and lost to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl.
Week 4 – @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame was in the playoff last season and – as a perennial powerhouse program – figure to contend for that spot again. It will be a new look Notre Dame team, with big losses up-front and at quarterback, with three-year starter Ian Book graduating. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was one of the best linebackers in college football last season is gone, as are both starting defensive ends.
I don’t see the Irish repeating a trip to the playoff. They picked up Jack Coan from Wisconsin to help bridge the gap at quarterback, but that is still a downgrade from last year. The offensive line won’t be as dominant, and the schedule is brutal.
Even the schedule leading into this game is favorable for Cincinnati – Notre Dame plays Wisconsin in Chicago the week before and the Bearcats will be coming off a bye week.
Notre Dame isn’t going to be as fast as Georgia was, won’t be able to throw the ball with as much success, and the offensive line is inexperienced. Cincinnati matches up better with Notre Dame than most “blue-bloods” and giving Luke Fickell a week to prepare can not be understated.
The look-ahead line has Notre Dame a 3.5 point favorite, but this is a very winnable game. Especially if Notre Dame takes a step back in 2021.
AAC Conference Play
Cincinnati gets UCF, SMU, and Tulsa at home and doesn’t play Houston. Those four teams expect to be the biggest competition to dethrone Cincy. It’s certainly worth noting that the Bearcats haven’t lost a home game since 2017 and hold the fourth-longest home win streak in the country at 20 games.
As of now, Cincinnati is a 2 to 1 favorite to win the AAC. Could UCF’s dynamic offense cause problems? Sure. Did Tulsa give the Bearcats all they could handle in the 2020 AAC championship? Yes.
However, Vegas has Cincinnati as the clear favorite to repeat for a reason. They’re more seasoned, talented, and better coached than anyone else in the American conference.
The road games in the conference should be a relative breeze. Navy rushed for 569 yards against Cincy in their last matchup in 2017, but this isn’t nearly the same caliber of Navy and certainly not the same Bearcats defense. East Carolina, USF, and Tulane round out the schedule and will be fighting it out in the basement of the AAC, and don’t present much of a threat.
The table is set. It’s time for the Group of Five to get their respect and after two straight impressive seasons, Cincinnati is already on the committee’s radar. They showed the willingness to compete by scheduling the big boys, and even in a loss showed the capability to do so in the Peach Bowl.
They have experience, talent, and a star quarterback. A defensive unit that will be among the best in the country. They’re well-coached. They’re hungry. And this year, they have the potential to build a resume that gets them in the playoff.
