The Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks are on a collision course for an Eastern Conference Second Round matchup.
The last time these two organizations faced off in the playoffs was in 2019 when a similar Bucks squad beat the Kyrie Irving-led Celtics in five.
NBA power dynamics have shifted since then, and the Boston Celtics will not be intimidated by the reigning champs. The winner of a 2022 Boston-Milwaukee series will likely be the team to come out of the East, with both squads being a step above the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat.
Jayson Tatum has finally come into his own, and the Celtics are rolling as of late, but Milwaukee has been playing almost the same championship core for two years now.
Let’s dive into the minutiae that will ultimately decide a series likely to go six or seven games.
Both Squads Will Be Mostly Healthy
On paper, this matchup seems to favor the Milwaukee Bucks slightly. Their big three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton pose matchup nightmares for any opposing team and conceal any weak spots in their rotation.
However, Las Vegas oddsmakers have decided that the Boston Celtics are the favorites.
Khris Middleton’s Sprained MCL Seems to Be the Culprit for the Changing Winds
Already having to sit out for the entire first round, reports are still unclear when exactly Middleton will be available. In general, MCL sprains take about two weeks to heal, and Middleton is due to be reevaluated along that same timeline.
Sitting out for two weeks would put Middleton’s return around May 5th. Depending on scheduling, that would be either Game 2 or Game 3.
Since the Celtics finished in second place, they get home-court advantage for the first two games of the series. But, if the Bucks can win at least one of those two without Middleton, they will be in a good position for the rest of the series.
Don’t Let Boston-Biased Oddsmakers Fool You
For the Celtics, Robert Williams is the biggest x-factor for their championship dreams. Why? Because he is crucial to what they do on the defensive side of the ball, and his development was a significant part in the Celtics turning around their season. Oh, and he’s been terrible since coming back from a knee injury.
After finishing a sweep of the Brooklyn Nets in Round One, Williams will have about a week-and-a-half to rest before his services are required again. But in the limited time he played on the floor, he didn’t exactly look ready for action.
In a combined 29:42 minutes of game time, Williams shot 2 of 5 from the field for 5 points, 4 fouls, 7 rebounds, a block, a steal, a turnover, and an assist. Not exactly the kind of production we have come to expect from the Time Lord.
Most notably, Boston head coach Ime Udoka said before Game 4 of their series against Brooklyn that Williams would get in “the 24 [minute] range.” Instead, he only played the center for 14 minutes.
The extra time the Celtics earned by sweeping the Brooklyn Nets could be what Williams needs to get his body right. But if not, an already not-super-deep Boston team will be hard-pressed to find a replacement for his minutes.
Bucks, Celtics’ Rotations Will Make the Difference
Who’s-guarding-who defensively will be crucial for both teams in this matchup. With both Williams and Middleton possibly hobbled for the first two games, any non-star player stepping up and having a big game will make a world of a difference in the series.
Al Horford appeared to have drawn the Giannis assignment in their regular-season matchups, which helped free up Robert Williams to roam the paint. Still, Williams helped make up the C’s version of a “Giannis Wall.” If he isn’t out there, undersized and less athletic bigs Grant Williams and Daniel Theis will need to step up against the two-time MVP.
On the Bucks’ side, getting production out of their non-Giannis Antetokounmpo bigs will be key.
Bobby Portis especially looks to be a defensive liability against more athletic wings and bigs of the Celtics. He looks to be caught in the no man’s land of being too slow to defend perimeter players while also lacking rim protection skills.
On Milwaukee’s positive side, a Middleton injury will hurt Bucks less than Williams injury hurts Celtics because of depth replacing either player. Bucks’ coach Mike Budenholzer will feel perfectly comfortable giving the extra minutes to a 3-&-D wing likely already on his bench.
A hyper-athletic, 7’6″-wingspan paint protector in Robert Williams? Not so much. Williams’s role for the Celtics is more unique than Middleton’s to the Bucks.
However, if either Middleton or Williams misses three or more games, depending on the quality of play that replaces them, it could swing the series.
The Bucks Are Not the Brooklyn Nets
The Celtics just swept the freaking Brooklyn Nets!
The same Brooklyn Nets that were favorites to win the title throughout much of the regular season.
Sure, they will no longer be facing lineups with three or more players under 6’3,” but really, what are you thinking if you haven’t accepted Boston as a legit contender. Milwaukee presents a new challenge, on the other hand.
Tatum and Brown won’t be able to feast on abhorrent mismatches anymore. Coach Budenholzer will make a legitimate game plan to attack Boston’s defense. And he will 100 percent exploit any absence of Robert Williams in ways Steve Nash could never.
The Boston Celtics currently have the second-best odds to win the NBA Finals, behind the Golden State Warriors. But for them to become champions, they have to beat the reigning champs.
After years of playoff disappointments in Boston, the Celtics finally have a real shot at the title. With that, Jayson Tatum can cement his place as a true NBA superstar, Marcus Smart can legitimize his DPOY trophy, and years of toiling away with Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, and all the others will have been worth it.
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