For the better part of the last decade, Clemson has more or less had their way in the ACC. But after making the College Football Playoff (CFP) six straight years, they’ve missed it the last two seasons. Who’s standing in the way of their return? Who might surprise? Who will disappoint?
Conference previews continue on The South Endzone Podcast, and we just wrapped up ACC Win Totals. It’s a conference with a pretty healthy “middle class”, teams that are expected to be right around .500 (seven teams enter 2023 with a 5.5 or 6.5 Win Total). Only a few teams are expected to be really, really good, and only a couple are expected to struggle. And there’s usually a team that comes out of nowhere to wildly exceed expectations. Who could it be this year?
*All Win Totals listed are from Fanduel Sportsbook; other outlets may have slightly different Win Totals or betting odds*
Duke Blue Devils (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesMike Elko and the Blue Devils exceeded all expectations in his debut season, finishing 9-4. They bring back 18 starters. Riley Leonard returns at quarterback (2,967 yds, 20 TD), as do their top NINE receivers. Leonard was also the team’s leading rusher (699 yds, 13 TD), and they bring back three other running backs who tallied 400 yards or more. Four O-Line starters return. They bring back most of the D-Line and Secondary. Sounds awesome. So why am I hesitating to go Over 6.5 for Duke?
Because this year’s schedule looks to be much more difficult. Last year they avoided Clemson, Florida State, and NC State (combined record: 29-11). They only played four teams that ended up being bowl-eligible. Duke gets all the big boys in the ACC this year, plus Notre Dame in non-conference. They should start 3-1, but will likely be underdogs in at least five of their final eight games. I like them to go back to a bowl game, but I’m not sold on a seventh win. Give me the Under.
Pitt Panthers (6.5)
Pitt went 9-4 last year for a third straight season of 9+ wins under Pat Narduzzi. They replace both their starting quarterback and leading receiver for a second straight year. Also departing is leading rusher Israel Abanikanda (1,341 yds, 20 TD). But they bring in BC transfer Phil Jurkovec to reunite with OC Frank Cignetti and return three of their top four receivers from 2022. Rodney Hammond will be the feature back and they return three starters on the O-Line. Defensively, they replace a number of players, mostly upfront. They return two starters at LB and three more in the Secondary.
The schedule is a tale of two halves and is somewhat back-loaded. They should be 4-1 at worst when they hit the bye week. Louisville, at Wake Forest, at Notre Dame, and Florida State represent their toughest stretch. Can they win one of those and two of their final three (Syracuse, BC, at Duke)? I say yes. I’m going Over 6.5 on Pitt.
Virginia Cavaliers (3.5)
Virginia will be trying to move forward from just about the worst set of circumstances imaginable in the 2022 season. A three-game losing streak dropped them to 3-7 when the remainder of their season was canceled in the wake of three players being killed in a shooting.
In terms of on-field results, the Hoos look like they’re probably going to have similar struggles. Gone are starting quarterback Brennan Armstrong (who also led the team in rushing) and their top three receivers. They return three backs who each got at least 50 carries last year and added Clemson transfer Kobe Pace. But those guys will be running behind a line that looks like a clear weakness, with one starter returning.
In the good news department, though, they bring back most of the defense, which was decent last season (24 ppg allowed). The entire defensive line and two starting linebackers return. They have some question marks on the back end with both starting corners having transferred. But I think they’ll be okay defensively. It’s the “scoring points” part that would worry me.
There’s no easing into the schedule for the Cavs, with a neutral-site game against Tennessee to open up. Two conference road games and home dates with James Madison and NC State follow. Going into the bye week at 3-3 would be a success. The back end of the schedule has six ACC games, none of which they will be favored in. Unless they get credit for two separate wins by beating William & Mary, I don’t see an Over 3.5 here. They’re my pick to finish last in the ACC, and Under 3.5 wins.
North Carolina Tar Heels (8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat do you see when you look at 2023 UNC? Do you see an offense that might score 40 a game and carry the team to 10 wins and an ACC title? Do you see a defense that might give up 33 a game and be the thing that drops them from last year’s 9-5 mark? Neither is inconceivable; I can be talked into anything with this team.
Drake Maye is back and will be a contender for both the Heisman Trophy and the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Their top three running backs return. They bring back four starters on the O-Line and their top five tacklers from 2022. They do lose their top two receivers but bring back four others who had at least 300 yards last year. So they’re deep there, even if they may lack the top-end talent they had a year ago.
The schedule gets right down to business. They open with South Carolina, Appalachian State (remember THAT game from last year?), Minnesota, and a trip to Pitt. That’s the first four weeks. After the bye, they get five games in which they should be solid favorites. They close with Duke, at Clemson, and at NC State. We’ll have a good idea of what their season ends up looking like before the calendar flips to October. But I think Maye is good enough to drag that defense to a ninth win, at least. I’m not picking them to play in the ACC title again, but I’m going Over 8.5 on the Tar Heels.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4.5)
A 1-3 start led to the dismissal of Geoff Collins, and things looked pretty hopeless for the 2022 Yellow Jackets. Interim HC Brent Key took over and immediately pulled off consecutive upsets of nine-win conference opponents (Pitt, Duke). GT went 4-4 under Key, and the Interim tag was removed. On offense, they return most of the O-Line but not much else. Former Texas A&M quarterback Haynes King will likely start, and they feature three transfers at receiver. Defensively they bring back seven starters, including three up front and three on the back end. They look thin at LB, losing their two top tacklers from last year.
The non-conference schedule is two games they should win and two games in which they’ll be sturdy underdogs (Ole Miss, Georgia). But the conference slate includes enough winnable games that I feel good about them getting to five wins. I could even see them pulling another upset and getting to six. For the first time in at least four years, I’m taking the Over on Georgia Tech.
Miami Hurricanes (7.5)
Miami is 12-12 the last two seasons, despite Top-20 Preseason rankings in both years. They’re 33-28 over the last five years. Mario Cristobal‘s career head coaching record: 67-67. They were 2-5 at home last year with blowout losses to Pitt, Duke, Florida State, and Middle Tennessee. Why is this team getting 7.5 wins from Vegas? Let’s try and figure this out.
Tyler Van Dyke was fantastic in 2021 and looked like a shell of that player in 2022. The offense as a whole struggled, with an 11-ppg scoring drop from 2021. They return just one starter on the line, however, added a number of transfers with experience. I do think they’ll be at least decent up front, and they bring back their best running back, Henry Parrish (616 yds, 4 TD). They bring back five of their top six receivers, though none of them eclipsed 400 yards or 5 TD last year. Keeping Van Dyke on the field and upright will be Priority One. We’ll see if Shannon Dawson’s offense suits him better than Josh Gattis’s did.
The defense was a mess, surrendering 40 or more points five times. I do like Kamren Kinchens and James Williams in the secondary. But the front seven are a bit of a wild card with all the transfers they brought in. They definitely need to improve on their 5.9 yards/play allowed from last year.
At the end of the day, I just don’t see it. Finding an eighth win on that schedule is a leap of faith that I’m not willing to make. Miami has claimed a spot on the “show me first” list, alongside teams like Texas A&M. I need to actually see them come close to meeting preseason hype and expectations before I consider buying in.
Virginia Tech Hokies (5.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Hokies missed a bowl game in 2022 for only the second time since 1993, finishing 3-8. Brent Pry had a rough first year, losing four one-score games. They do return 14 starters from last year and should improve. But can they improve enough to make a bowl game?
They haven’t settled on a starting QB yet. But my guess is that Kyron Drones’s athleticism and dual-threat ability give him the edge over Grant Wells. Especially given they lost their two leading rushers from last year. They return three O-Line starters, but lack real depth behind them and need to stay healthy. Also returning are three of the top four receivers and added two transfers who put up good numbers at G5 schools. Offensively, I think they’ll see a solid increase from last year’s 19.3 ppg average.
Defensively, they’ll be better, with a nice mix of returning starters and transfer additions at every level. If they can keep LB Alan Tisdale and CB Dorian Strong on the field, and Mansoor Delane plays like he did last year, this could be a solid defense. I think they’ll need to pull off one upset in conference play to get to 6-6. And I’ll say they do just that, and take Over 5.5 to send the Hokies back to a bowl game.
Clemson Tigers (9.5)
Clemson is 21-6 with yet another ACC title over the last two seasons. Yet they’ve missed the CFP both years, so those results ring as somewhat of a disappointment. But I think good news is on the horizon.
Bringing back 15 starters from an 11-win team is an obvious cause for optimism. They’ve also made bold moves to upgrade the offensive production. They return their three leading tacklers from a year ago, and three players who registered 5.5 or more sacks last season. Do-it-all RB Will Shipley is back (1,182 yds 15 TD) as is leading receiver Antonio Williams. They return four starters on the O-Line. Cade Klubnik takes over as the full-time starter after showing flashes in spot duty last year. Offensively, they’re in good shape.
On the defense, they bring back four starters in the secondary. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter are two of the best linebackers in the country. Tyler Davis (5.5 sacks) and Xavier Thomas return up front. The Tigers allowed 20.9 ppg last year, and I doubt that number increases. They’ll field one of the best defenses in the country.
The schedule is about as manageable as you could hope for. Three of their four toughest games are at home. The bye is in Week 7, right before two ACC road games. I’m not ready to say they run the table, but they’ll probably be favored in at least 11 games. Even if they drop a game they shouldn’t, I don’t see a third loss here. Clemson is going 10-2 at the worst, I’m on the Over.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (6.5)
NC State has won at least eight games in four of the last five seasons and returns 12 starters from last year’s injury-riddled 8-5 squad. So on the surface, it looks somewhat promising.
Brennan Armstrong comes over from Virginia, where he was a three-year starter, to take over at quarterback. Jordan Houston, last season’s leading rusher, is back as well. They only return two starters up front, though, and patched some holes there with inexperienced transfers. Three of their top four receivers from last year are gone, too. Their scoring average dropped from 33.1 to 24.3 last season, as they cycled through four different quarterbacks. Having Armstrong, assuming he can stay healthy, will help some, but there’s a definite ceiling here offensively.
The defense, however, should continue to be pretty good. They gave up 19.2 ppg last year, and bring back most of the D-Line. They lost three starters in the secondary but do return some experienced players. Linebacker is where they look kind of thin, with their top two tacklers leaving.
They don’t get their bye until Week 8, but they have a lot of winnable games up front. 4-3 or even 5-2 going into the bye is a perfectly reasonable expectation. On the back end, their two toughest games (Clemson and UNC) are at home, along with Miami. Road trips to VT and Wake Forest are manageable. The schedule and upgrade in quarterback play are enough to get me to bite on the Over.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesWake is a team in transition and one of the tougher picks for me in the ACC. Sam Hartman is gone, taking 45 starts, 110 touchdowns, and almost 13,000 passing yards with him. Leading receiver A.T. Perry (1,096 yds 11 TD) is off to the NFL. Linebacker Ryan Smenda, who had 40 more tackles than anybody else, is gone. Eight other starters from last year are gone, too.
But they could still open some eyes, at least offensively. Mitch Griffis moves into the starting quarterback role, and he’s been very good in his limited action. Leading rusher Justice Ellison returns. Even with the loss of Perry, they bring back four receivers who tallied 500 or more yards. One big concern is that they only bring back two starters on the O-Line. They’ve averaged 36+ per game the last three years; some drop-off is likely, but probably not much.
Defensively, they probably won’t be very good. That’s okay, they haven’t been good on defense the last six years (at least 28.3 ppg allowed) and won plenty of games. Five of the top seven tacklers return, as does Jasheen Davis, who led the team with seven sacks. They return three starters in the secondary.
They should be 3-1 at worst when they hit their Week 5 bye. Then they hit a tough stretch, facing Clemson, VT, Pitt, FSU, Duke, and NC State in ACC play. They close with road games at Notre Dame and Syracuse. That’s two post-bye games in which they’ll likely be favored. Between the turnover on offense and the untrustworthy defense, I don’t think I like them to pull off the upset they’ll probably need to get to seven wins. I like them to go to a bowl game, but give me the Under.
Florida State Seminoles (9.5)
I’m all-in on the Seminoles, who return almost everybody of consequence from last year’s 10-3 squad. Jordan Travis took a giant step forward last year and could find himself in New York in December. Leading rusher Trey Benson and leading receiver Johnny Wilson both return. They bring back three O-Line starters and added some pretty experienced transfers. The only real attrition happened at receiver, where three of the top four pass-catchers from last year are gone. But they added Keon Coleman from Michigan State and TE Jaheim Bell from South Carolina.
Among the nine starters back on defense are standouts Jared Verse, Tatum Bethune, Kalen DeLoach, Patrick Payton, and Fabien Lovett. They return talent and experience at all three levels and will be just as good as last year’s unit (20.6 ppg), if not better.
The obvious roadblocks to a playoff run are the LSU and Clemson games. After the bye, the only games that might concern me are at Pitt on November 4th, and at Florida to close the season. Unless Travis gets hurt and misses significant time, I just don’t see three losses here. This is a team with talent, experience, and depth. They’ll win at least 10 games and I expect them to play in the ACC championship game.
Syracuse Orange (6.5)
Syracuse faded late last year, getting off to a 6-0 start before losing six of their last seven games. Losing star RB Sean Tucker (1,080 yds 11 TD) hurts, but they do bring back Garrett Shrader at quarterback. They also return two of their top three receivers, led by TE Oronde Gadsden II. The big question is up front, where they lost three starters.
Defensively, they allowed 23.1 ppg last season, and a lot of those guys are back. Seven of their top eight tacklers, in fact. DE Caleb Okechukwu led the team in sacks with 7 and Marlowe Wax had 4.5; both of them are back.
They should be at least 3-1 when they welcome Clemson to town on September 30th. Then they get back-to-back road games at NC State and Florida State. I’m guessing that bye in Week 8 will be a godsend. After the bye, the schedule is manageable, with three home games and trips to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. I like them to get to six wins and another bowl game. But I can’t quite talk myself into 7-5. That O-Line worries me. I don’t know where the rushing yards are going to come from and too much of their offensive success hinges on Shrader staying healthy. Give me the Under.
Boston College Eagles (5.5)
Offensively, the good news is that they return eight starters. The bad news is, that offense scored 17.8 per game and their best player, Zay Flowers, is not among the returnees. I do think their O-Line could be better, they bring all those guys back. But quarterback Emmett Morehead will need someone to throw to, and it’s unclear who that will be.
As bad as the offense was last year, the defense was arguably worse (30.3 ppg allowed). They bring six starters back, which includes three on the defensive line. DE Donovan Ezeiruaku led the team with 8.5 sacks and LB Vinny DePalma led the team in tackles with 87; both return. The secondary only brings one starter back and looks like a clear weakness even with a couple of FCS transfers added.
If they’re going to hit the Over, the favorable ACC schedule will probably be why. No Clemson, No North Carolina, No NC State, No Duke. The front half is pretty favorable; if they aren’t 3-3 or better going into their bye week, Jeff Hafley may be let go. The back half has four games that should be winnable. But this is a team that has to improve drastically on both sides of the ball to get to six wins. I’m not convinced they get to five wins, let alone six. Under.
Louisville Cardinals (8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Cardinals watched starting quarterback Malik Cunningham (120 total touchdowns from 2018-2022) and head coach Scott Satterfield depart. But with the hiring of former Louisville quarterback Jeff Brohm, they arguably made a coaching upgrade. Jack Plummer, who played under Brohm at Purdue, will likely start at quarterback. Leading rusher Jawhar Jordan returns, but they are replacing most of their receiving corps. Two starters are back on the O-Line, and they’ve supplemented with experienced transfers there as well. Louisville returns seven starters from last year’s sneaky-good defense. I say sneaky-good because I was surprised to look and see they allowed only 19.2 ppg last year. I’d also bet you are surprised to read that. They should be good up front, and the secondary looks to be experienced and deep.
At first glance, 8.5 wins seem a little heavy for what they’re bringing back. Looking at their schedule might give you pause, though. I can’t imagine a more favorable 2023 conference slate for an ACC team. Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina are among the conference’s four best teams; Louisville plays none of them. They do get Notre Dame and the rivalry game with Kentucky in non-conference to even things out a little. In the end, though, I think eight is as high as I’ll go. Give me Under 8.5 for the Cards.
The ACC Has Been a Tough Conference to Predict
Seemingly every year, an ACC team comes out of nowhere and wildly exceeds expectations. Like Wake Forest in 2021, or Duke in 2022. But outside of Clemson, there hasn’t been a year-in, year-out contender for the ACC title. The Tigers have played in seven of the last eight ACC Championship games, against six different teams. Maybe that changes going forward with the elimination of divisions. Or the emergence of another team, like Florida State. Regardless, it seems as if the ACC is as wide-open as ever. Someone will surprise. Who will it be?
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
