With Week 1 in the books, and a disappointing 1-3 showing on our best bets, we need to get into midseason form real quick. As annoying as bad beats are (more on that in a minute), they’re part of the deal and you have to flush it and move on. The price of doing business, as they say.
So what does Week 2 have in store for us? There’s some tempting lines, some confusing lines, and a few that seem too good to be true (and probably are). I will say, I don’t love the fact that there are so many road favorites. That’s never a safe feeling. But we’re not here to be safe, are we?
A quick rundown of the format for our Best Bets
1. These will be the picks I feel the most confident about. Maybe that’s two games, maybe it’s six or seven. Most likely, it’s something in between. But, it’s not a set arbitrary number.
2. I’ll identify my favorite underdog Moneyline bet each week.
3. I may even detail some games that I strongly considered but didn’t quite make the cut. Honorable Mentions, if you will. They might not be among my best bets, but you might find them among yours.
4. Unless specifically stated otherwise, picks Against the Spread (ATS) or on point totals (O/U) will represent a bet to win one unit ($50). So a bet for Team X to cover 7.5 points at -110 will be a $55 wager to win $50. Moneyline picks will be a $50 bet against whatever the odds are (ie. $50 at +130 to win $65).
5. All odds listed are from FanDuel sportsbook. Other books may have slightly different lines/totals/odds, so as always, shop around.
Week 1 Best Bets went 1-3, with a tough-luck loss on the Under 50.5 for West Virginia vs Penn State. Losing that one when the backup QB scores on a keeper with seven seconds left really stings. But we have short memories around here, so let’s dive in.
Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech
Embed from Getty ImagesOregon opened at -7.5 and I liked it, I obviously love seeing it cross over 7 and get down to 6.5. There was nothing instructive to take away from Oregon’s Week 1 romp over Portland State. But, Texas Tech didn’t look very good against Wyoming. And I don’t want to read too much into one game, but I thought Oregon was the better team before last week, and I still do. Getting them at under a touchdown is very, very appealing.
Texas A&M (-4.5) at Miami
Two teams who underachieved last season square off in Coral Gables, but it seems like Miami’s 2022 stink has worn off quicker than A&M’s. This line opened at 7.5, and has steadily dropped. You can even get it at -4 if you look around. But A&M looks like they might have an offense, and coupled with that defense, could be a handful.
Boise St (+134) vs UCF
Embed from Getty ImagesIf you want to take Boise +3.5 at -110, I don’t hate it. There are even better Moneyline bets out there, some books are as high as +145. But, I’m not 100% convinced the right team is favored here so I’ll try to get a little bang for my buck. Boise had a rough go of it last week at Washington, but UCF doesn’t have the same type of quarterback and they certainly don’t have the same type of receivers. I think Andy Avalos and the boys will have a little easier time slowing down UCF. A Gus Malzahn team and the blue turf; I’m sure it will be a totally normal game and nothing crazy will happen.
Liberty (-10.5) vs New Mexico State
This game was included in my Best Bets when I started putting this article together, and the line was -13. So I’m all over Jamey Chadwell and the Flames covering 10.5 here. If you think it may come down further and want to wait until it crosses 10, by all means. But I’m expecting a two-touchdown game. Liberty ran for almost 250 yards against Bowling Green. Meanwhile, the Aggies were off after giving up 28 fourth-quarter points to a bad UMass team in Week Zero in a 41-30 loss. I’d expect them to have trouble containing Liberty’s offense.
Nebraska (+2.5) at Colorado (1/2 Unit)
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday afternoon, after Colorado’s upset win at TCU, this line dropped from Nebraska -8.5 to Nebraska -2.5, and kept dropping. By the time I ate breakfast Sunday, the Buffs were favored. This feels like a possible overreaction to Colorado beating a TCU team that might not be very good. Nebraska moved the ball well against a good Minnesota defense, but shot themselves in the foot one too many times. If they can avoid those type of mistakes, which TCU made as well, they can absolutely come out of Boulder with a win. But self-sabotage has become a bit of a Husker staple the last few years, so I’ll only sprinkle a little action on this one. Taking Nebraska to lose a close heartbreaker? Worth a shot.
Purdue (+3) at Virginia Tech
I think the wrong team is favored, but the Moneyline (+118) isn’t enough for me to give up that 3-point cushion. Virginia Tech’s convincing win over a bad Old Dominion team wasn’t as impressive as the final score might indicate. They had trouble stopping ODU for large stretches, but got bailed out by three turnovers. Winning the turnover battle 3-0 usually isn’t sustainable. They still gave up 200 yards on the ground and let the Monarchs go 8-15 on 3rd down. Purdue, meanwhile, played a decent game against a much tougher opponent, Fresno State. The Boilermakers never trailed until the early 4th quarter, and missed a field goal in addition to failing to convert a 4th and Goal from the 1. They got a good game from quarterback Hudson Card and didn’t allow a sack. So give me Purdue and the points, which might be the only time I say that this year.
Tempting, but couldn’t quite pull the trigger
Pitt (-7) vs Cincinnati: I wish I’d have jumped on it when it opened at 3.5 but when you snooze, you lose. In any case, this briefly dropped to 6.5 before coming back up. If it drops again I’ll probably go for it. But even with Pitt playing at home, I don’t like 7 on the dot.
Iowa/Iowa State Under 36.5: This opened at 38.5 and was tempting; this game usually goes under. But 36.5 is just a touch low. Especially given Iowa’s tendency to steal a score on defense/special teams. And I’d like to avoid a bad beat for a second straight week.
Oklahoma State (-3.5) at Arizona State: OSU is 7-3 ATS as a road favorite the last four years. So I thought about it. But I have questions about the quarterback position, and I think Mike Gundy does too. They didn’t look fantastic against Central Arkansas, despite never trailing and leading by two scores for most of the second half. But they played three quarterbacks, so it’s fair to wonder how opened-up the playbook really was. It’s not clear what their plan is with that this week. The Sun Devils, for their part, struggled against Southern Utah last week, winning 24-21 as 35-point favorites. But there’s enough unknown with that quarterback situation for me to back off.
Lastly, there’s Texas at Alabama (-7). The biggest game of the week. I’m not including it in the best bets because a) I didn’t have a strong opinion, and b) I’d rather just sit back and enjoy watching what should be a great game.
Week 1 Best Bets: 1-2 ATS, 0-1 Upset Picks, -1.6 Units
2023 Season Best Bets: 1-2 ATS, 0-1 Upset Picks, -1.6 Units
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
