Week 7 is in the books; six weeks remain. There’s still a ways to go, and a lot of pivotal games that will define the 2023 season. But, we are starting to separate the wheat from the chaff. Let’s sort out who’s a contender, and if we have any pretenders in our midst (Spoiler: we sure do).
There are 11 unbeaten teams remaining, and another 12 one-loss squads who still have a mathematical path to a conference title and College Football Playoff (CFP) argument. 23 teams is a much more manageable number than 133, but it’s still a lot. So in the interest of time, let’s just talk real quick about the obvious contenders, and dig a little deeper on the rest. Some teams don’t require much discussion.
Clearly a Contender
Embed from Getty ImagesGeorgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Oklahoma, Penn State, and Washington: These seven teams occupy the top seven spots in the AP Poll. All are unbeaten. There’s no need to spill a bunch of ink on why the Seminoles, Sooners, or Bulldogs are title contenders, you already know that. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all still have to play each other, but that will only eliminate one of them, if any. Four of them (OSU, FSU, OU, UW) already have a quality win in the ledger that will help if they take a future loss.
Still an Obvious Contender, even with a loss
Texas, Oregon, Alabama: All three took a loss to a very good team (two from the list above, and Alabama lost to Texas). They all still control their own destiny in terms of making a conference championship game. And they all still have chances for quality wins coming up. Any of these teams would be in the playoff field as one-loss conference champs if they were to win out.
So now we’re down to 13 teams. We can trim it down further pretty easily
Good story, but no realistic shot at Contender status
James Madison, Air Force, Liberty: Liberty could win out and their “best win” would be either Middle Tennessee or Jacksonville State. As for Air Force, their best win in a 12-0 season would be either Wyoming or UNLV. Neither of those teams would get in over a one-loss P5 champ (nor should they). James Madison, who is 14-3 since coming up from FCS football, is ineligible for the postseason thanks to a completely nonsensical NCAA rule. But their best win would likely be Georgia State anyway, so it probably wouldn’t matter in terms of the CFP. All are good teams that I enjoy watching; none will have a legitimate argument for a playoff spot.
Okay, we narrowed it down to ten. Good job, team. Of the ten remaining, some need help and some don’t. The jury is still out on them, let’s make a verdict.
Teams with one loss in non-conference
USC
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Trojans got worked over Saturday night at Notre Dame, dropping their first game of the season. On the surface, they’re 4-0 in conference play and would be in the Pac-12 title game if it were played tomorrow. In reality, this is a flawed team that has an uphill battle in front of them. The defense is horrid, and their best win thus far is a triple-overtime home victory over 4-3 Arizona. They’ve allowed 40+ in their last three games. In the next month, they play Utah, Washington, and Oregon. I haven’t seen anything to make me think they can sweep those games and beat UCLA in the finale. PRETENDER
Duke
Duke also has one non-conference loss, also to Notre Dame. They still have to play Florida State and North Carolina, who are the other ACC teams without a conference loss. 6-1 Louisville is also on the docket. Riley Leonard being full-go this weekend when they go to FSU would be huge, though it’s unlikely. But while they’re an interesting team, I don’t think they can win all three of those. I’m not even that optimistic they can win two of the three that they’d need to get to Charlotte. Mike Elko has done a great job and has his team playing well, but I don’t see them as a contender for the CFP. PRETENDER
An unbeaten team that isn’t getting enough attention
North Carolina
Embed from Getty ImagesLet’s take a quick look at the all-inclusive, detailed list of teams that have five wins by double digits over Power 5 teams:
North Carolina. End of list.
The Tar Heels are 6-0 with an improved defense (21.0 ppg allowed), an excellent offense (37.3 ppg), and a manageable schedule. Drake Maye is completing 69% of his passes and averaging almost 320 yards per game. They’ll be favored in at least five of their remaining six games, and look to be headed for a showdown with Florida State in early December. CONTENDER
One loss, but still have to play Georgia
Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss
It’s tough to look at these three teams and feel like any of them have a great shot to get into the CFP field. In addition to upcoming games against the Bulldogs, Missouri and Tennessee still have to play each other (Nov. 11th). Aside from their trip to Athens, Ole Miss also needs help in the way of two Alabama conference losses in order to make a return trip to the Peach State for the SEC title game. Ole Miss needs the most help, while the other two control their own destiny to a certain extent. Of the three, Tennessee probably has the best chance because they at least get Georgia at home. However, they go to Tuscaloosa this week, so their “best chance” still isn’t all that great. These are three good teams, and there’s a decent chance two of them finish with 10 wins. But in terms of a CFP berth, they are all three PRETENDERS.
One-loss PAC-12 teams
Utah
Kyle Whittingham and the Utes are 5-1 despite missing star quarterback Cam Rising. When Rising will be able to play, if at all, is still unclear. In his absence, the offense has struggled and they’ve had to rely on a tough, stout defense (12.1 ppg allowed). It’s difficult to watch them and believe they can beat both of their next two opponents, USC and Oregon. They also go to Washington later on. A third straight 9-3 season feels like the best-case scenario. PRETENDERS
Oregon State
Embed from Getty ImagesFinally, a Contender to break the streak. The Beavers should be 9-1 when Washington comes to town. They finish up at Oregon in the Civil War game. Can they beat both of those teams? I’d argue that they’re the best-equipped Pac-12 team to pull it off. They’re averaging a tick over 38 ppg behind a stellar ground game (195.1 ypg). DJ Uiagalelei has been efficient (8.9 YPA, 15 TD), Silas Bolden and Anthony Gould are a solid 1-2 punch at receiver, and TE Jack Velling has scored 7 TD already. Defensively, they’re fast, experienced, and aggressive, allowing 20 points per game. They’ve won 16 of their last 17 home games. A lot of people wrote them off after their three-point road loss to Washington State. That’s a mistake. This is a team that can make a run, whether you’ve been paying attention or not. CONTENDER
The Wild Card(inals)
I really don’t know what to make of Louisville. The team I watched beat Notre Dame didn’t remotely look like the team I watched get drummed by Pitt. Their remaining schedule provides some optimism as far as their ACC hopes (no FSU, no UNC, no Clemson). They’re playing good defense (20.5 ppg allowed) and have five winnable games remaining. But can they win all five? I’m going to need another week for these guys. I want to see how this Duke game goes before I decide one way or the other. I’m leaning Pretender, but that bad loss at Pitt might be a one-off. JURY IS STILL OUT
Iowa, who needs their own category
Iowa
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Hawkeyes are 6-1. They have a conference loss but hold the tiebreaker over Wisconsin, whom they beat this past Saturday. So their fate is firmly in their own hands. They’re the betting favorite to win the division and head to the Big Ten title game.
But with that offense, Iowa has no chance to win the Big Ten, or advance to the CFP, let alone win it. None. Not with an offense like that.
While they’re averaging 21 points per game, which is bad enough, 16 of their 146 points so far are by way of defense or special teams. That average is also propped up by a 41-point outburst against Western Michigan. They’re averaging 16.2 points against P5 opponents.
Iowa is 113th in scoring offense, 130th in Total Offense, 128th in Passing Offense (ahead of only Navy and Air Force, two service academies running the Triple Option), 98th in Rushing Offense, and 130th in First Downs. It’s just brutal.
They may very well finish 11-1 and play for a Big Ten championship. And if they do, they’ll lose by three touchdowns to whoever comes out of the East. They are, without a doubt, a PRETENDER
So we got the 23 mathematically possible teams down to 12. In the next two weeks, we’ll have our list of legit CFP candidates down to probably single digits. And then the real fun begins. Can a Pretender make me eat my words and turn into a Contender? Which Contender(s) will become Pretender(s)? The fun is just beginning.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
Featured Image: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
