It’s time to cut the bull(expletive). Ceddanne Rafaela is the Red Sox’s best solution to replace Trevor Story while keeping the defense respectable.
We know it. The Red Sox themselves know it better than we know it.
Rafaela is more than familiar with the position. He’s certainly athletic enough to make at least routine MLB plays regularly. And contrary to popular opinion, moving him will not affect his development.
Boston has enough outfielders to cover for him, with Rob Refsnyder returning sometime soon. If the Sox feel they don’t have enough, it might be easier to get a defensive outfielder than an infielder.
As we all witnessed last year, shortstop defense is too important. Use your versatile $50 million man to your advantage. He can handle it, and it won’t ruin him.
The Red Sox need Ceddanne Rafaela at shortstop (among other things) to have a chance to compete.
It’s mid-April; don’t throw in the towel yet.
Story’s Loss Is Already Hurting the Red Sox
Embed from Getty ImagesTrevor Story was the glue holding the 2024 defense together. Although this season’s first ten games had hiccups, the overall product was better than last year.
Over the first seven and a half games of the season, the Red Sox were charged with five errors. Four of those errors came in two games (two in game three vs. Seattle and two in the finale of the Oakland series). Of those four errors, two were from outfielders, and two came from the infield — one from Trevor himself.
Boston’s defense has fallen off a cliff since the fourth inning of April 5th’s game vs. the Angels in Anaheim.
The frequency at which they have made mistakes all over the field is up exponentially.
The Sox have been charged with 11 errors in the eight and a half games since Story went down.
There have been more bad fundamentals and boneheaded mistakes on routine plays.
So far in 2024, Red Sox infielders collectively rank 28th with -6 Outs Above Average. That number almost certainly has to do with their abysmal play the last week.
Story and Triston Casas are the only Red Sox infielders in the top 100 players (of 274) in Fielding Run Value that aren’t in the negative. Those two are also the only Boston infielders who are positive in OAA.
None of their infielders have a positive Defensive Runs Saved, and of their ten errors, six have come since April 5th.
Outfield defense, also a problem in 2023, has improved in 2024, though it has not been immune to Trevor Story’s loss.
The Sox outfield collectively has amassed 0 OAA and 0 DRS. Jarren Duran is the only regular above 0 in both categories.
Surprisingly, Tyler O’Neill has -2 DRS and -1 OAA.
Boston’s outfield has been charged with six errors this season, four coming since April 5th.
The result of all this?
A vastly improved Red Sox pitching staff (2.54 team ERA, 3.50 FIP) is being squandered.
The starters are beginning to feel the effects of bad defense, too.
Tanner Houck didn’t get through the sixth inning against the Angels, probably because of the extra pitches he had to make.
Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello didn’t get past the fifth inning in their respective starts in the Orioles series, almost assuredly for the same reason.
As pointed out by the always-on-point Lou Merloni, Bello, Kutter Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck don’t and can’t take that next step without solid defense behind them.
All of them have a 44 percent or higher career ground ball rate. You have to have at least average defense behind pitchers like that.
Red Sox Middle Infield Options Aren’t Great
Embed from Getty ImagesBoston’s infield defense is 100 percent going to be like 2023 very soon if something isn’t done to fix it.
Do the Red Sox owners or front office care? Does the manager care? It doesn’t seem like it. We are a week out from their Gold Glove-caliber shortstop going down, and Rafaela has appeared in only one game at shortstop.
The Red Sox plan: platoon and mix and match both short and second base.
That lasted all of a couple of days.
Shortstop was to be manned by Romy Gonzalez and David Hamilton. Gonzalez started one game and injured his wrist. He’s now on the Injured List.
Hamilton has become the everyday shortstop because Alex Cora believes in his defense and has flat-out said Rafaela is his center fielder. Maybe his mindset is changing?
Hamilton is not a shortstop, no matter how much Cora wants him to be one. If you can’t even get a toe on the second base bag (bigger than ever) on an easy double-play ball, you are not a shortstop. (Not to mention booting balls and bad throws.)
The soxprospect.com guys — who know the system better than anyone in the viewing public — think Hamilton’s a second baseman.
That’s not good when the options at second aren’t great defensively, either.
It’s a short sample size, but Pablo Reyes has -1 DRS at second, -4 OAA, and -2 FRV. (He’s played a few games at third base for context on his defensive numbers). Reyes hasn’t committed an error at second, but he’s dropped a few easy double-play balls and made a bad throw or two on easy outs.
As for Enmanuel Valdez, he’s vastly improved at second base in a short sample size (0 FRV, -1 OAA, -1 DRS). Considering how bad he was, it’s not saying much. He’s dropped a few catchable balls, has made some bad throws, etc. He’s still too inconsistent not to be hitting, which he isn’t.
Reyes and Valdez are good enough, I guess, to platoon second base until Vaughn Grissom returns, hopefully in a few weeks.
Once Grissom returns, he’ll primarily be at second, though he will occasionally see time at short. Grissom had -7 OAA and -7 DRS at shortstop over 158 innings last year. He shouldn’t be an option there.
Where they’re at right now, Ceddanne Rafaela is the best shortstop the Red Sox have. The Sox need a good shortstop more than they need an elite center fielder. He can handle it; it might be rough for a week or two, but he should pick it up quickly.
Rafaela started his pro career as a shortstop before transitioning to center and still played short a couple of days a week throughout his MiLB career after becoming a center fielder.
Just watching Ceddanne Rafaela shortstop highlights on this Friday morning.pic.twitter.com/aPqrOi1uiX
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) April 12, 2024
Last season, Ceddanne Rafaela made what felt like at least one play in the outfield every night that let you know he’ll win a Gold Glove in the future.
— Hunter Noll (@Hunter_Noll) January 10, 2023
Just a reminder that your favorite prospect’s favorite prospect does the damn thing at shortstop too. pic.twitter.com/KzEPR4XVBt
Ceddanne Rafaela will start the first game of his big league career this afternoon against the Astros.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) August 30, 2023
He’ll be batting leadoff and at shortstop.
We always talk about his defense in CF, but he can flash the leather at SS as well.pic.twitter.com/CI64NBENbL
Shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela can help keep the Red Sox’s all-around defense respectable. A respectable defense is an improvement from 2023, which will improve the starters.
With good starting pitching, anything can happen.
Ceddanne Rafaela at Short Makes Red Sox Team Defense Respectable
Embed from Getty ImagesHow can Rafaela keep this entire team’s defense respectable, you ask? Good question.
For one, the obvious: a good shortstop makes the entire infield better. We saw that the first week of the season.
For two, they have good outfielders, and one of them hasn’t played much.
Tyler O’Neill has spectacularly taken over the April 2023 Adam Duvall role. O’Neill is a better outfielder, though, with tons of speed (97th percentile or better sprint speed from 2018-22) and a strong arm (89th percentile or better arm strength in 2021 and 2023).
O’Neill ranked in the 72nd to 92nd percentile in OAA from 2020-22 and had a positive FRV in 2018, 2020, and 2021. He’s also had more than one DRS in 2018, 2020, and 2021.
He barely played right field before 2024 and has handled that just fine. If the Sox wanted to shift him to center field every day, he would handle that just fine, too. Let’s just hope he stays healthy playing every day.
Jarren Duran is a big leaguer. He also seems to have found a home in left field (0 FRV, 1 OAA, 1 DRS), looking more comfortable there than in center. It suits him, I think. Duran has improved enough as an outfielder from those early dark days that he’d be fine in center field every day if Boston wants to go that direction.
Both are hitting the cover off the ball right now, as well.
Wilyer Abreu can play Major League Baseball. Last year, he had 2 DRS, 1 FRV, and 0 OAA, and he hit .316/.388/.474/.862 with good plate discipline.
Abreu hasn’t played much this season and got off to a bad start (I wonder why). He’s looked so much better in his last couple of games. So far in 2024, Abreu has 0 FRV, 0 OAA, and 1 DRS with one error. I haven’t seen anything from him defensively that doesn’t track with his scouting report.
Abreu deserves everyday playing time in right field until he proves over a more extended sample size that he isn’t a big leaguer. Rafaela at shortstop opens up that opportunity for Abreu.
At the very least, platoon him with Rob Refsnyder.
Refsnyder is on a rehab assignment and should return in a few weeks. We know what he can do: He is a lefty killer and can play all three outfield spots, respectively, when needed. Putting Ceddy at short opens up an opportunity for Refsnyder and Abreu to be on the roster simultaneously.
If worse comes to worse, Masataka Yoshida can return to left field occasionally.
I get that the Red Sox love Ceddanne Rafaela in center field—we all do. However, if you want to win as much as realistically possible without Trevor Story, he must be the shortstop. O’Neill has to be in center field, with Abreu in right and Duran in left.
This team still has the potential to compete for a Wild Card spot, but only if the defense is at least average to solid. Ceddanne Rafaela becoming the Red Sox shortstop goes a long way toward that.
Featured Image Credit: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
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