3% odds for anything are minuscule odds. It means if an event were to happen 100 times, it would only happen a certain way three times (on average) in 100 tries. The Atlanta Hawks are in the correct multiverse because they won the NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday afternoon! The NBA Draft Lottery provides all non-playoff teams with various lottery ball combinations. Your team gets the first selection in the NBA Draft if your combination is drawn. The NBA repeats the process for picks two through four. The rest of the 14-team lottery is in order of worse regular season record.
Hawks Beat the Odds
The Atlanta Hawks made the NBA Play-In Tournament and had a shot at making the playoffs- much like they did last year. But something has been off for this team. Trae Young is a stud point guard who only sometimes gets recognition nationally. The Atlanta Hawks have players in their prime, playoff veterans, good young pieces, and a solid coach. They were my sleeper pick to make a run this season. However, chemistry (and health) matters and this mix of players could not make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. Stuck in the middle is the worst place to be in the NBA because there is no easy way to improve.
But the Atlanta Hawks beat the odds. A 3% shot at the number one pick is one of the lowest odds in NBA Draft history (it is the fifth lowest ever to win). It is the first time since selecting Hall-of-Famer David Thompson in 1975 that the Atlanta Hawks get to choose first overall. Atlanta will finally get a player to anchor their roster.
*Fun Fact: David Thompson never suited up for the Hawks, opting to play for the Denver Nuggets of the ABA instead. A year later, the ABA merged with the NBA, but Thompson remained with the Nuggets for most of his stellar career. David Thompson was the player that Michael Jordan (allegedly) patterned his game after. Jordan selected Thompson as his Hall-of-Fame presenter in 2009.
Possible Number One Pick
Unfortunately for the Hawks, this isn’t last year’s draft, where the prize was a guaranteed phenom and shoo-in rookie of the year winner. Victor Wembanyama has blessed the San Antonio Spurs with Tim Duncan-level talent—maybe even better than that.
This year’s draft does not have that type of player. Most pundits agree that the contenders for the number one pick are all international stars—names that the American public doesn’t recognize. The good news is that two potential options are French big man Alex Sarr and French prospect Zaccharie Risacher. Both will likely see action as Victor Wembanyama teammates in this summer’s upcoming Olympics, hosted in Paris.
The pick is also a candidate to be traded. With Young and Dejounte Murray as the current backcourt cornerstones, the Hawks may look for veteran help to break through the upper echelon of the East.
Weak Draft
The consensus is that this draft is weak on top-end talent but deep in role players who can become formidable glue guys on playoff rosters. I watched the McDonald’s All-American Game two years ago, and some of those prospects hope to realize their NBA dream next month. If not for health issues last summer, LeBron’s son, Bronny James, would have assuredly been among them.
Other Draft Notes
The Houston Rockets continue to be blessed by the James Harden trade from years ago. The Brooklyn Nets’ draft order was selected third overall, but they cannot benefit from their miserable season with draft luck. Houston controls the Nets’ first-round picks through 2027. The Detroit Pistons hit the lottery three years ago and have wilted since then. They fell to fifth overall in draft selection for the second straight year.
The NBA Playoffs
Here is a quick NBA playoffs recap as all teams still in it are battling in the second round.
- The New York Knicks, despite facing tough challenges, have kept the NBA playoffs interesting with their close games against the stumbling Philadelphia 76ers in the first round and the rising Indiana Pacers in the second round. However, a blowout loss last night has tied the series at two games apiece. There’s hope for a turnaround. However, I fully expect the Pacers to continue dominating the shorthanded Knicks and finish the series this week.
- The Boston Celtics were the only NBA team to break 60 wins this year. Even though they tormented a battered Miami Heat team in round 1, it feels like the Celtics (explicitly referring to Jayson Tatum and not Derrick White) have been sleepwalking through the playoffs. The league only hands out MVPs for the regular season and the Finals, so Tatum still has time to get it together. They lead the semifinal series against the Cleveland Cavaliers 2-1.
- The Minnesota Timberwolves have a burgeoning star in Anthony Edwards. They took the first two games in Denver against the NBA-champion Nuggets in their second-round series. The Nuggets, fresh off a second straight sweep of LeBron James and the LA Lakers, have responded with two wins in Minnesota. This is shaping up to be a classic series.
Jamal Murray connects and so does the great Kevin Harlan: pic.twitter.com/KnWj2WGqNr
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 13, 2024
- The Dallas Mavericks are outclassing a young Oklahoma City Thunder as they seem to have more weapons than them. A knee injury hobbles Luka Doncic, and he walks around like he is 45 instead of 25. But he is still putting up stats. The Mavs lean on Kyrie Irving when they genuinely need a bucket. Dallas leads this series 2-1.
Photo Credit for featured cover image: Getty Images.
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1 Comment
Great read.