Since the PAC-12 added four new schools last week, everybody has been wondering what their next move will be. With the conference needing at least two more schools to be considered FBS everyone has been speculating the next major domino to drop. Will they pouch some teams from the ACC? Could they lure previous members like Cal or Stanford back? Maybe they’ll get creative and grab some programs from the FCS.
However, after last night’s news, the PAC-12 next move is becoming increasingly obvious. It was announced that starting in 2026, Utah State will be the newest member. Utah State is the 5th Mountain West school to jump ship to the PAC-12. With this move, both conferences now have seven members, meaning both are at risk of falling from the FBS. So both these conferences need to get more programs asap. However, the easiest and best solution for both would be for the two to become one conference.
Dominate The West Coast
One of the main things that has been lost because of conference realignment is the importance of geography. When conferences first started popping up, the main reason was geography. To make it easier for teams geographically close to each other, to play each other. However, with the explosion in TV money, geography has fallen by the wayside. Now we have conferences that span the continental US. With schools like USC in California sharing a conference with Rutgers in New Jersey.
However, just because the power conferences have abandoned geography, doesn’t mean it’s not a solid strategy to build a conference around. Lots of recruits want to stay close to home. They want their family to be able to get in a car and be able to drive to most of their games. Something that can’t be done with the power conferences. However, this can be done for West Coast recruits if the PAC-12 and Mountain West merge.
Sure they wouldn’t have some of the top programs on the west coast like USC or Oregon. However, this new conference would be able to dominate the West Coast. With all the schools being so close together it will create a strong geographical footprint. It will generate a lot of interest on the West Coast because all the games are nearby. It would be the West Coast version of the Big East. Keeping the good recruits close to home, and not having to go across the country for the opportunity it provides.
Running Out of Other Options
Even if both conferences are currently against merging, they might almost be forced to. When the PAC-12 announced the newest four teams, they had a clear next target. All the reports suggest that they were targeting AAC schools west of the Mississippi River. Specifically, schools like UTSA and Memphis were at the top of the PAC-12 wish list. There were also rumors that schools like Tulane and USF might have an interest in joining. However, over the past week, all four have re-committed to their allegiance to the AAC.
So with those four off the table, there aren’t a lot of good options left. Sure there are a few interesting options in the FCS that would make sense. However, there are lots of hurdles to jump through when a school moves from FCS to FBS. These are resources, training facilities, and talent disparity. It’s almost a guarantee it’s going to take time until these new FBS members are ready to compete with established members.
This leaves the best options for potential new members is the schools in the other conference. Rather than having a war break out between the PAC-12 and Mountain West, with the two sides stealing schools from each other. It would make more sense for the two to combine, and become the dominant power in the Group of Five.
Brian Germinaro is a sportswriter for Belly Up Sports. Follow him on Twitter/X for more stories and Belly Up Sports for your go-to sports coverage. Featured image credit: Icon Sportswire.
