At the start of the college football season, no one would’ve picked THIS matchup as the national championship. Even though both teams were ranked in the preseason top 25 poll, Washington wasn’t the highest-ranked Pac-12 team. While Michigan had two other Big Ten teams in the top seven. Both teams deserve to be here and have earned it.
How Michigan Got Here
Michigan ran the table in the Big Ten which “earned” them the right to play Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is always the most beautiful college football game of the year. This year was no different. Two historic college football programs delivered on the biggest stage the sport has to offer. Michigan dominated most of the game, but due to some bad special teams, they trailed 20-13 late. Despite this, Michigan went on a 75-yard touchdown drive to tie the game. After a Blake Corum touchdown run, the Michigan defense stopped Alabama on 4th and goal to win the game.
How Washington Got Here
Similarly to Michigan, Washington went undefeated in conference play. Despite this, Washington wasn’t favored against Oregon in the final Pac-12 title game. Washington won by three. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. put on a show in their playoff game versus Texas. Penix threw for 430 yards and two touchdowns. Penix never took a sack, despite talk of how Texas’ defensive line was going to disrupt him. Even though Penix had one of, if not the most incredible performances by a college quarterback, Texas still had a chance to win it. Due to an injury to Washington running back Dillon Johnson, the clock stopped. Texas drove the ball down the field and had one play to win the game. Washington cornerback Elijah Jackson swatted away a pass as time expired and Washington moved on.
The Quarterbacks
J.J. McCarthy – Michigan
I would describe J.J. McCarthy as an elite game manager. He makes the plays when he has to and never tries to do too much. He is 26-1 in his college career as a starter. J.J. is a meditation warrior, who never seems too flustered in big moments. An underrated athlete as well who will certainly be at least a second-round pick if he declares for the NFL draft.
Michael Penix Jr.-Washington
If you showed a massive NFL fan who knew nothing about college football Michael Penix Jr.’s game film versus Texas, they’d think Penix would be going number one overall. However, due to injury history and age (I don’t get this) Penix will most likely be a late first early second-round pick. Penix is a baller, he plays so smoothly, which is something I associate with players in other sports. He’s deadly accurate and has amazing receivers to throw to. Pennix will be the best player on the field on Monday night.
X-Factor
Special Teams
Often a cliche, but this time I am serious. Both teams fumbled at least one punt in their semifinal game. While Michigan missed a 49-yard field goal kick, and botched a routine extra point snap. Both miscues cost them four points in total. Also, late in the game, Michigan switched out punt returners, and the allegedly sure-handed Jake Thaw fumbled the punt. Thaw avoided disaster and recovered the ball on the one-yard line. At the same time late in the game, Washington got an interference penalty that gave Texas life. The more buttoned-up special teams will have a huge advantage.
Where Michigan Has an Advantage
Michigan has an advantage on the offensive and defensive line. They have pushed teams around all year and have been super physical all year. Their ability to dictate the tempo of a game by running the football is huge. If they need to keep Washington’s high-powered offense off the field late in the game they will be able to do it. They ended their win over Penn State with 32 straight runs, killing off the game.
Michigan’s defensive line got after it against Alabama. Michigan had five sacks in the first half against the Crimson Tide. More of a pass rush by committee, Michigan doesn’t have an Aidan Hutchinson like years past. Despite this, Michigan still ranked in the top 20 in sacks nationally. Michigan also ranked top 10 in rush defense in all of college football. However, Texas, Washington’s semifinal opponent ranked third in the country in rush defense.
Where Washington Has an Advantage
Put simply, Washington has Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan doesn’t. Penix with those elite receivers has caused problems for opposing defenses every time they’ve clicked. Washington’s offense has played in so many close games which gives them confidence in tight moments. They beat Oregon twice by a combined total of six points.
The Michigan defense has yet to face an elite college quarterback. Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord was the best QB they played, he has since transferred to Syracuse. On the flip side, the Washington defense has faced Bo Nix twice, Cam Ward, and Quinn Ewers.
Wide receiver Rome Odunze is willing and ready to outjump and out-maneuver any defensive back to catch a ball. Odunze is a projected top-15 pick in this year’s draft. Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan would also be number one options on most teams in the country.
What Winning Would Mean For Michigan
Michigan would feel validation for sticking with Jim Harbaugh in 2020. Now, after a culmination of years of improvement. Despite constant rumors of Harbaugh leaving the program to go to the NFL and chase a Super Bowl victory that has eluded him, he still might stay. A win could make him reconsider his NFL future. One could argue he is still young enough to build Michigan into a dynasty. If Harbaugh left, Michigan would still be a premier team and destination for recruits.
What Winning Would Mean For Washington
For Washington, it would be their third national championship in program history. It would elevate this team’s offense into the “greatest of all time” conversation. QB Michael Penix Jr. would certainly improve his draft stock even more than it has been. Washington would enter the Big Ten next year with massive amounts of momentum. Head coach Kalen DeBoer would certainly be one of the hottest names in coaching. My hunch is that DeBoer will appear in NFL head coaching searches.
Prediction: Washington 36-Michigan 33
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