As NFL fans, we all have players that we believe get too much credit. Is our distaste for our favorite team’s division rivals a factor? Sure. Do we sometimes hold a player up in higher regards than they deserve because they play for our favorite team? Undoubtedly. But many are still overrated players.
Using totally subjective things such as what I believe to be overly-generous contracts and Madden ratings, here’s my top 5 most overrated players in the NFL.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
It’s always an unpopular opinion when you criticize a team’s long-tenured starting QB. Especially one that has a league MVP and three Pro Bowls to boast, but hear me out.
Cam Newton has a career TD/INT ratio of 1.7 according to The Football Database. That means he throws 1.7 TDs for every 1 INT he throws. Let’s put this into perspective against some of the other QBs in the league (that have 1500+ pass attempts):
- Aaron Rodgers 4.22
- Russell Wilson 3.11
- Tom Brady 3.02
- Derek Carr 2.26
- Drew Brees 2.23
- Matt Ryan 2.22
- Philip Rivers 2.10
- Nick Foles 2.06
- Andrew Luck 2.06
- Kirk Cousins 1.98
- Alex Smith 1.91
- Ben Roethlisberger 1.91
- Matt Stafford 1.84
- Andy Dalton 1.81
- Cam Newton 1.70
- Marcus Mariota 1.64
- Ryan Tannehill 1.64
- Joe Flacco 1.56
- Case Keenum 1.52
- Jameis Winston 1.52
- Eli Manning 1.51
If you added in some of the young QBs in the league that don’t have 1500+ pass attempts, Newton would fall into the bottom half of the league.
If you compared Newton’s career completion % (59.7%) to other QBs in the league, he’d fall between Ryan Fitzpatrick (60.1%) and Blake Bortles (59.3%). Not great when you’re sandwiched between a journeyman QB and the LA Rams’ backup QB.
To be fair, Newton is coming off of his best season in regards to completion % (67.9), and at just 30 years old he has time to improve all of his averages, but as of now I do not see him as one of the premiere QBs in the league.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Seriously, how is a guy that has had one season with over 1,000 receiving yards one of the top-10 highest paid wide receivers?
Since putting together his best season in 2015 (1,047 yards, 9 TDs), Watkins had season totals of 430 yards & 2 TDs in 2016 and 593 yards and 8 TDs in 2017. This somehow convinced the Kansas City Chiefs to give him a three-year, $48 million contract with $33 million of it guaranteed. In his first season with the Chiefs he put up 519 yards & 3 TDs. Yikes. With an average salary of $16 million, that puts Watkins ahead of wide receivers like Julio Jones ($14.25 million), TY Hilton ($13 million), and Davante Adams ($15 million).
Watkins hasn’t played all sixteen games in a season since his rookie year. Since then he’s missed 18 of 64 regular season games. That means he’s missed over a quarter of the games that he was supposed to play in. Again, yikes.
Josh Norman, CB, Washington Redskins
Norman had two really good years in the NFL. The first was his last season with the Carolina Panthers, in which he recorded 18 passes defended, 4 INTs, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 TDs. His second was his first year with the Washington Redskins, where he recorded 19 passes defended, 3 INTs, and 2 forced fumbles. Since then, however, Norman’s play has been pretty mediocre.
While I will admit that Norman still has good instincts when it comes to prying the ball from ball-carrier’s hands (5 forced fumbles over the past seasons), his numbers in coverage have more than halved. Compare these stat totals of two players over the past two seasons:
- 18 passes defended, 3 INTs in 30 games
- 12 passes defended, 2 INTs in 17 games
The top line is Norman, and the bottom line is journeyman CB, EJ Gaines. Norman’s average yearly salary is $15 million, Gaines is on a one year deal with the Buffalo Bills worth $2.1 million. Do you think Norman is worth more than 7x more based on those numbers? I do not.
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
Lamar Miller has been the Texans’ lead RB since he signed with them prior to the 2016 season. He was given 4-year, $26 million deal with $14 million of it guaranteed. They gave him this contract based on his two final years with the Miami Dolphins where he recorded 1,971 yards and 19 total TDs. In his three seasons with the Texans he’s only eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards one time (2016). The past two seasons with the Texans, he’s put up 1,861 yards and 12 total TDs (973 rushing yards & 6 total TDs in 2018).
Honestly though, what really gets me going is how the ratings team at EA Sports gave him an overall rating of 85 in the newest installment of Madden. Is this petty? Eh, probably, but take a look at a few of the RBs he’s ranked ahead of:
- James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers, 973 rushing yards & 13 total TDs in 2018.
- Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, 1,059 rushing yards & 12 total TDs in 2018.
- Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins, 1,042 rushing yards & 8 total TDs.
Now, I know what you’re argument is going to be: “Well, what about his ability as a receiver?”. Yea, he had 163 yards receiving last season so he’s not exactly lighting it up in that regard. James Conner had 497 receiving yards last season. So, ha.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Johnson had a monster year in 2016 rushing for 1,239 yards & 16 TDs. He also hauled in 80 receptions for 879 yards & 4 TDs. So basically he had a All-Pro year at running back AND put up good numbers for a #2 WR in the league. Yea, that was a monster year. The problem is, everything after that has been a disappointment.
In the Cardinals’ first game of the 2017 season, against the Detroit Lions, Johnson dislocated his wrist which ultimately led to him missing the rest of the season. A real bummer for Cardinals’ fans and fantasy football participants that took him in the first round of their draft (and I guarantee that he did go in the first round in virtually every single fantasy football draft that year).
A healthy Johnson had a chance to bounce back in 2018, but ended the season with numbers that definitely don’t scream “elite”: 940 rushing yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 7 rushing TDs.
Now, I know that a lot of you may try to defend Johnson by pointing out Arizona’s offensive line. My response would be “Ok, that’s fine, but then you have to defend Josh Rosen last season too”. Do you really want to go there?
