Injury Solutions: Guice and Penny

Unfortunately the fooball gods took two promising young running backs from us in 2019. For season long players it’s as simple as hitting the drop button, but for dynasty and keeper leagues it’s a different story. Injury Solutions: Guice and Penny will walk you through their current value, what to expect and whether holding on to these guys is worth it.

Update: Please note that since receiving news on Penny and Carson respectively, the approach and analysis has changed and what you read below regarding them is void. Derrius Guice’s portion of this breakdown remains unchanged.

TL/DR crowd, scroll down.

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Derrius Guice- What happened?

In August of 2018, Guice tore his left ACL and his injury roller coaster began. Unfortunately for Guice he fell into the relatively small percentage of people who acquire an infection during his procedure. These bacterial infections are aggressive and must be treated with IV antibiotics for months under the supervision of a physician. Along with draining the knee frequently he also likely experienced fever and flu like symptoms. This significantly impacted his recovery and definitely didn’t help the ACL heal.

Then in 2019 just when Guice seemed to be back, he suffered a right meniscus injury that required a meniscectomy. This is when the surgeon goes into the knee and reconstructs the meniscus completely. This is a much more extensive procedure than the “scopes” we’re accustomed to seeing for other players.

But of course that wasn’t the end of the nightmare for Guice as he then injured his left MCL on December 8th, 2019.

This guy cannot catch a break. Nevertheless, this article is titled Injury Solutions: Guice and Penny emphasis on solutions.

What to do and why

I’m holding or selling Guice (probably selling). If I’m buying Guice (which I’m not) I view him as a volatile lottery ticket and nothing more. Why you ask? Because within the last year and a half Guice has had several procedures and injuries to both knees. Furthermore, there is an overwhelming amount of evidence showing that previous trauma increases the risk for osteoarthritis (OA).

Look no further than Todd Gurley as an example of a player who saw an early plateau in physical capability following major trauma to his knee that resulted in OA. For a further analysis and specific breakdown of what OA is read my piece from the preseason here.

Furthermore, even though Derrius Guice can thrive in the short term (for a year or two) his susceptibility of recurrent knee injuries (non-OA related) is too great to ignore. The last dimension to this issue is of course how much volume he’ll receive. Don’t be surprised if the approach for Guice in 2020 is one of “load management” that could come with a volume reduction in the red zone and at the goal line. Of course this is all based on coaching decisions and I have no idea how Washington will handle this, but it’s definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Fantasy football is all about risk mitigation and the bottom line is that Derrius Guice, who can technically bounce back, has a very wide range of outcomes. If you sell Guice now for a mid-round pick or for a player like Miles Sanders or Austin Ekeler, you’re mitigating his injury risk in exchange for a safer overall player.

Rashaad Penny- What happened?

Penny tore his ACL on the same day that Guice hurt his MCL, which is cruel, fantasy gods. Penny doesn’t have a history of hamstring, MCL or ACL issues, so it is a bit surprising to see him go down with this injury. His story isn’t as lengthy as Guice’s.

What to do and why

I’m buying Penny in dynasty leagues and taking him in redrafts earlier than his ADP that doesn’t even exist yet. I’m not necessarily giving up a top five draft pick for him, but the perception of his value is the lowest it ever will be. Assuming that Penny has no fractures in the joint with minimal damage to the meniscus and MCL, he should be able to make a return by Week One of the 2020 season.

Admittedly this isn’t cut and dry and some caveats apply such as the reasonable chance at re-injury. This study on 219 NFL players with complete ACL tears found that 18.3% occurred in players who had a previous ACL tear. Additionally, even though it’s an older study with several blind spots, this study demonstrated that in 7,556 athletes who tore their ACL, only 65% returned to pre-injury level of performance. The last risk is stated back in the first study that shows 21%-37% of NFL players with an ACL tear never return at all. I don’t necessarily expect that, but I would be remiss not to mention in.

Back to the Week One return for Penny: we have to consider that although there is no benefit to wait longer than nine months to return from an ACL tear, the window can extend to twelve months. This means that there’s an outside chance we don’t see him again for an entire year. However barring any setbacks, this is unlikely. We’ve recently seen Cooper Kupp and Will Fuller back on the playing field in seven or eight months. I simply am doing my diligence by mentioning it.

The last factor to consider when smash buying Penny is that his teammate, Chris Carson, had a pretty significant hip fracture that can realistically hold him out for an entire NFL season. I’ll cover Carson’s injury separately, but my point is that this will likely be Rashaad Penny’s backfield for at least the first quarter of the season if not the entire year.

Derrius Guice summary

1. Derrius Guice has had several knee injuries and surgeries that put him at risk for osteoarthritis and several other knee injuries.
2. Even if he stays healthy, the Washington medical staff very well may limit his overall volume which could include redzone and goal line work (i.e. Todd Gurley)
3. I’m either selling him for a mid-round draft pick/Austin Ekeler type or holding him as nothing more than a lottery ticket.
4. Guice could bounce back but the odds are stacked against him.

Rashaad Penny summary

1. Rashaad Penny tore his ACL in December 2019, but has a good chance at returning by Week One.
2. There’s about an 18% chance Penny re-tears his ACL at some point during the season and a 21-37% chance we never see him again, but this is unlikely.
3. I’m smash buying Penny anywhere I can. I’m not necessarily giving up a top 3-4 round pick for him, but the perception of his value is the lowest it ever will be.
4. Chris Carson’s injury is just as severe if not more severe than Penny’s. If Carson doesn’t make it back by the middle of the season, Penny should thrive in a run first offense with minimal competition for touches.

Thank you for reading Injury Solutions: Guice and Penny. Make sure you follow me on Twitter as I’ll be monitoring these situations (and many others) all off season. If this information was helpful to you, please share it with a friend and let’s win some fantasy championships in 2020.

Featured image courtesy of CBS Sports.