I genuinely can’t believe I’m even writing this right now but we are on the verge of an absolute crisis. Don’t tell me to calm down and I don’t care that it is only Week 5. UCF is on the absolute fast track to squeak their clever asses into the playoffs this season. Let’s break it down, shall we?
For starters, UCF’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a whopping 125/130 this season.
You see those Pirates at the bottom? Yeah, they play UCF on October 20th. What a slapper of a game there boys.
The Knights will go undefeated while most of the CFB playoff contenders simply cannot. (Barring a total meltdown against one of twelve unranked opponents all season.) Here is how things are shaking out:
Top Ten Breakdown
After the polls were released this morning, LSU sits at the #5 spot on the outside looking in. However, they have the opportunity to flip that script when playing against both Alabama and Georgia . These two SEC juggernauts are comfortably sitting at the #1 and #2 spots respectively. What does this mean? LSU will not be going undefeated. Georgia will more than likely have to bout against Saban’s Crimson Tide making one of those teams also ineligible for a perfect season. Alabama will also have to play Auburn in the Iron Bowl but I do not foresee them losing two years in a row, especially against this Auburn program.
Looking closer ahead in this years college football season we see #7 Stanford and #8 Notre Dame clashing this weekend. In turn, one will not go undefeated. Stanford must also play #11 Washington and a pesky #24 California to earn the honors of going undisputed.
If we veer over to the ACC it appears #3 Clemson should be a shoe in to make the playoffs again this year. Currently the Tigers only have to play one more ranked opponent for the rest of the season (#22 Duke) but have been susceptible to drop a game against a significantly inferior opponent.
Flipping it to the Big 12, #6 Oklahoma must face three more ranked teams in Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia. Kyler Murray and the Sooners have shown bright spots but also shaky spots as well… in barely squeaking out an overtime win against Army. This team is an absolute coin toss to finish the season out perfectly and its still up in the air.
Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes are steamrolling ahead as the #4 seed but play a frisky #9 Penn State program this weekend. Meyer must also face a currently ranked Michigan State and Michigan program to close out the year. This gives Ohio State the toughest schedule behind LSU in hopes of keeping their coveted playoff position. Penn State will also be facing Mich/Mich St. as well as Wisconsin after this weekend.
Ultimate Worst Case Scenario
Currently as the polls sit these are your top ten programs that all still have a shot at making it. I have devised the most likely, worst case scenario for college football fans because UCF will undoubtedly nudge their way in. It goes:
- Stanford defeats Notre Dame, loses to Washington. (All have one loss)
- OSU loses to Penn State, Penn State drops one against Michigan or Wisconsin. (All have one loss)
- Georgia loses to Auburn, Auburn loses to Alabama, Georgia loses SEC Championship to Alabama (Georgia and Auburn two losses)
- Texas defeats Oklahoma, Oklahoma defeats WVU (All have one loss)
- Alabama / Clemson win out.
This now leaves Alabama and Clemson as your only two remaining undefeated FBS teams… oh but wait there’s UCF. It would be incredibly difficult to imagine a world that the committee would allow TWO teams with one loss ahead of an FBS program on a 24 game win streak. Ohio State or Oklahoma MUST remain undefeated to keep the Knights out of the playoffs this year. This allows the committee to punch in three undefeated programs and a program from a P5 conference with one loss with a SIGNIFICANTLY better SOS.
So here I am, CFB playoff committee, quite literally sending an SOS because of UCF’s SOS. Please do not let this happen.