This year’s college football playoff outlook has shaped up to be quite interesting this season.
We’ve seen an Alabama team that is going on a historical run and obliterating every team that comes in their path. A Notre Dame team that has silenced critics and gone onto remain unbeaten. Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes, who remain shunned by the media for off the field antics, but continue to persevere with a Heisman contending quarterback leading the way. And a scrappy Clemson team that can one week almost be beaten by Syracuse to turn around and blow out a Wake Forest team by 60.
Wild rides for all four of these programs to say the least. Unlike years past, there will be no room for any one loss programs to get their shot.
Strength of Schedule Matters
When it comes to the college football committee, they rely heavily on top ranked opponents playing other top ranked opponents. In order, these are the four programs who will look to end their season undefeated and earn their spot in the college football playoffs.
Notre Dame: 5th
Unlike most unbeaten teams, Notre Dame boasts an SOS currently ranked at 5th in the country. They have already taken down Michigan (12th) and a Stanford team who was ranked 8th when they matched up. To no fault of their own, teams like Florida State and USC have fallen out of the rankings but are still big name programs that Notre Dame will have to beat to earn their spot. The Fighting Irish will always be hurt by not playing a conference championship game but have established a solid foundation to make the playoffs this year.
Ohio State: 34th
The Ohio State Buckeyes fall a bit shorter than Notre Dame by beating a ranked TCU team that had no business being there and an 8th ranked Penn State program. They are only left with a ranked Michigan team to cap their regular season off. This is obviously before they have to clash against (presumably) Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship to cap off their undefeated push towards a title. Coming in with an SOS at 34th, the Buckeyes fall just short of being in the top 25% this season.
Clemson: 46th
Coming in at number #46 on the SOS charts will be Clemson, who arguably has the weakest schedule of them all. The Tigers were tested earlier this year against Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies and will need to continue performances like last weekend to earn their rightful spot this year. The rest of their schedule is just pure trash. The only two ranked opponents left will be N.C. State (20th) this weekend and (presumably) Miami who just managed to squeak by the Seminoles last weekend. Like Notre Dame, Clemson relied on Florida State to boost their schedule for the committees sake but the Seminoles continue to struggle as they have the last two seasons.
Alabama: 61st
It is no surprise to anyone that Alabama has a cupcake schedule this year. Their SOS is ranked 61st in the nation which falls to the bottom 50%. However, the Tide still has to face LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, and presumably Georgia (if they can bounce back from a devastating loss against LSU) So, in short, while their SOS isn’t impressive they still must run the table against a gauntlet of SEC powerhouses.
Playmakers Matter
Out of the four teams listed above, there are currently two out of three Heisman contenders in the top 3 on the Heisman watch at this point in the season.
- Alabama: Tua Tagovailoa- 1st
- Ohio State: Dwayne Haskins- 2nd
Historically, the teams of Heisman trophy winners have mostly either contended for a national championship or been close in contention for one. In the playoff era, 3 out of 4 have made it to the playoffs. Let’s take a look at those stats:
Playoff Era
- 2017: Baker Mayfield- Played in the CFB Semifinal.
- 2015: Derrick Henry- Won a CFB Semifinal game and went on to win a National Championship.
- 2014: Marcus Mariota- Won a CFB Semifinal game and lost in the National Championship
Pre-Playoff Era
- 2013: Jameis Winston- Won the National Championship
- 2010: Cam Newton- Won the National Championship
- 2009: Mark Ingram- Won the National Championship
- 2008: Sam Bradford- Lost the National Championship
- 2006: Troy Smith- Lost the National Championship
In short, 8 out of the last 11 Heisman winners have competed for their shot at a national championship because they led their team to get there. Plain and simple. If we look at the one loss teams like Washington, Texas, and Michigan, they do not have any players in contention for winning a Heisman trophy which we have seen truly does matter in this day in age. The only team who does is Oklahoma with Kyler Murray at #3 on the Heisman watch list… but their devastating loss vs. Texas will leave them on the outside looking in with the rest of them.
If you continue to look down the list you will notice that even Clemson’s own Travis Etienne has made his way on the watch list at #9. Does he have a chance to win it all? Absolutely not. Is Etienne a playmaker that can change the impact of a game? Absolutely.
Coaching Matters
As it stands right now, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Dabo Swinney are the top three coaches in college football respectively. It is impossible to argue their track records at each of these programs and dispute their accomplishments. That is why these three teams have the best shot at remaining undefeated heading into the college football playoffs this year. Their teams are all disciplined, hard working, and wildly talented which directly shows on the tape thus far.
So Who’s Gonna Make The Top 4?
Will all four of these teams miraculously remain undefeated? The odds are very slim. No one wants to see Washington get blown out by Alabama again, nobody. Looking at you UCF. No disrespect towards their program at all but we witnessed what happens when you play a, “real” team last weekend. Thanks for ruining all of my parlays by the way.
In conclusion, these four teams deserve their shot in the final four more than anyone in the country. They have either have a strong strength of schedule, Heisman contending playmakers, great coaching, or a combination of all the above. Very excited to see how this all plays out.
