LSU
This weekend, us college football fans will get to see a game that could have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoffs. We get to see an untested Alabama take on the very battle tested LSU Tigers squad in Death Valley. This is it, the game that these two teams have had circled on their calendars all year. LSU could be one of the biggest surprise teams of the year. They were projected to finish their usual underwhelming 6-6 to 8-4 range. But that’s not what we’ve gotten from them. What we’ve gotten is one of the best defensive units and the best secondary in the country. The number 3 and number 4 prospects in the draft in Greedy Williams and Devin White. And an LSU that finally has a competent quarterback.
BAMA
Over on the other side of the field, you see the best quarterback that Alabama has had under Nick Saban. And maybe ever. The sophomore savior from the National Championship game last year, Tua Tagovailoa. This is the most efficient offense Saban has ever had at Alabama, and as usual, they have a pretty stellar defense. The one knock against them this year is that they haven’t been tested. Bama fans will argue that point but it’s the truth. They’ve only played one ranked team this year. While they’ve looked like a National Champion to come already, this week will be the most important game they play all year.
If Alabama were to lose this game it would cause absolute chaos. If they lose and LSU wins out and wins the SEC and the other teams in the top 5 win out, the argument then becomes: does Alabama deserve a chance at the CFP? If Bama loses, just expect some chaos and don’t be surprised if there’s some bias towards a one loss Alabama. Onto the real point of this article though, lets preview this monumental game.
The Preview
LSU has lost 7 straight games in this rivalry. But this is easily the best team that LSU has brought into this game in the last 7 years. Based off numbers, Alabama has clearly had the better offense this year. But this game is going to come down to creativity. We’ve seen it in the past like the 2010 game. The overall talent on both of these teams is so even. What is going to be most important is who is going to be the most creative. That is somewhere that Coach O learning under none other than the great Mad Hatter, Les Miles could have an advantage in. Alabama might have an overall offensive advantage but what they have not had to deal with this year is a defense like LSU’s.
As I talked about in a previous article, LSU is going to be without the best linebacker in the nation, Devin White, for the first half. LSU still has the best secondary in college football and if they can somehow slow down the Alabama passing attack in the first half, then when White comes back for the second half it could be a completely different game. The man is a game changing animal. Alabama has a good defense like always. But, as the Missouri game showed us, their secondary and linebackers get very confused when the offense has men in motion and the Bama defense is in a zone defense. They get mixed up on who has who and in this game mistakes like that simply cannot happen.
Overall, even without Devin White for the first half, I think LSU is going to have the edge in defense in the game. It’s also worth noting that this is Tua’s first start in a truly hostile environment and the last time the Alabama has played in a hostile environment like this they lost. This is also going to be the first game where Tua has to play in the fourth quarter.
Keys To The Game
LSU’s quarterback Joe Burrow is also going to have to step it up in this game. While he doesn’t have a lot of yards one thing he is able to do is extend plays. He has 250 yards on the ground and 4 rushing touchdowns. While he can’t extend like Tua can, he still played under Urban Meyer at Ohio State and he is the best QB LSU has had in awhile. If he can limit mistakes and lead LSU down the field while killing the clock, they will definitely have a good chance at an upset.
The thing I think is going to be the biggest part of this game is going to be special teams. This game isn’t going to be like the 2011, 9-6 game, but Alabama also isn’t going to score touchdowns on every drive. So it’s worth noting that Alabama is only 9-14 on field goals this season and have missed four from inside 40 yards. That right there could be the key to the game.
Another important factor to look at is punting. Both of these teams are going to have to punt and that is something that Alabama does not do well. In fact they are second to last nationally in punting yards, having an average of only 35 yards per punt. That could be dangerous only being able to punt 35 yards and punting to the explosive athletes that LSU has. LSU, on the other hand, ranks 27th in average punt yards at 44. They also have the best field goal percentage in the country of teams who have kicked at least 20 field goals. LSU has an enormous special teams advantage. In a game with two great teams, field position and field goals is what this game could come down to.
3rd And 4th Down
Another factor of the game is going to be third and fourth downs. Alabama has the best fourth down conversion rate in the country. If LSU can stop them on third downs that could be the biggest factor of the game. LSU also has the 6th best fourth down conversion rate in the country of 77.8% which will definitely come into play, whereas Bama has on of the worst conversion rates of 42%. While one might think oh well they never need to convert on fourth anyways, there’s a high chance they’ll need at least one or two in this game.
I can sit here and talk about this game and compare these two team for pages and pages. But the truth is that these teams are very evenly matched. Bama has an edge in offense but LSU has it in defense and special teams. We’ve seen that the LSU offense can get slowed down but we’ve also see them explode. The thing is we really have no clue what weaknesses Alabama has. Like I said their coverage can get confused when putting multiple players in one players zone and making people come over to help, and when they have to cover motion receivers. After that though, we have no clue.
Prediction
Tua might be banged up, but we’ve never seen him in a hostile environment like Death Valley, and we’ve never seen him against a true SEC defense. So it will be interesting to see what happens. But I will say, I’m putting my money on Coach O. I think this is finally the year LSU returns to prominence and I think they’re going to stop Bama’s regime….at least for this season. Geaux Tigers.
