Welcome to Sharples’ week 2 of CFB gambling picks! Week 1 was a crazy week, that showed us that a cover can be made or broken in the blink of an eye! Let’s have a quick rundown of some games where the spread was devastated late in the game:
- Northwestern fumbles the ball in the final seconds of the game, and Stanford jumps on it in the endzone to cover.
- Clemson hits a career long 51 yard FG by B.T. Potter late in the 4th to give Clemson the cover.
- ND fumbles away a cover multiple times throughout the game. Could not score on 2 opportunities late in 4th quarter to seal the cover.
- Auburn hits a game winning TD pass with 9 seconds left, when a FG would have won the game. They cover as a result
That’s gambling folks. You have to expect these types of things to happen, that is why hitting over 50% of your picks for a season is consider a success. Last week, we were on both the winning and losing end of the above scenarios. That’s ok! We still went 6-4 and made money. That is all that matters in this game. Let’s put the past behind us and move forward into week 2 of CFB gambling picks!
LSU is going to Dominate Texas
Granted LSU played Georgia Southern last week, but I still came away very impressed with LSU’s passing offense. Joe Burrow was an insanely efficient 23-27 with 5 TD passes and 0 picks. He had the 3rd highest QBR in the nation last week at 95.6. One thing the LSU offense lacked, was a solid run game. They averaged 3.7 ypc against Georgia Southern. That is going to have to be greatly improved throughout the season, if they want to seriously contend for an SEC and National Championship.
Defensively, they were as stout as ever. They gave up a total of 98 yards of offense for the game. I know they played Georgia Southern, but those option teams can be hard to stop at times, and they can usually garner up over 100 yards of offense against pretty much anybody – not this time!
Offensively, Texas was pretty balanced on offense. Ehlinger was 28/38 with 4TD and no picks. The team averaged 5.1 ypc against Louisiana Tech, so they showed the ability to run the ball as well. They threw the ball down the field quite a bit, as they had multiple pass plays (4) of 20+ yards, and a handful of 15+ yards – but this is LSU, not Louisiana Tech.
I believe that LSU will be able to create enough pressure on Ehlinger, that it will limit his ability to drive the ball down the field. Despite Texas having a high ranking, they only return 8 starters from last years team that beat Georgia. They are still an inexperienced bunch, and that will be glaring in this extremely tough matchup with LSU.
Defensively, Texas got lit up through the air last week. J’Mar Smith went 34/51 331 yards and 2 TD 1 INT, proving that inexperience hit Texas especially hard on the defensive side of the ball. It’s this inexperience with the pass rush and secondary, that will allow LSU to light up Texas through the air, and open up the run game.
Prediction: LSU 36 Texas 16
Texas A&M is going to Shock Clemson
I am not the only one that believed A&M outplayed Clemson last year in every way but the scoreboard. This year, I see a greatly improved, ballhawking, secondary for A&M, paired with an increasingly confident defensive line, and a even more improved QB in Kellen Mond.
Mond enjoyed a solid performance against Texas St – 19/27 194yds 3TD 1INT with 25 yards rushing, 1TD.
Now that is not a eye-popping stat line, but his game film was more impressive than the numbers indicate. He hit multiple passes deep downfield, including an 40 yard strike to Jhamon Ausbon. Mond still proved once again, that he is a threat to run the ball as well. You truly have to account for this guy all over the field.
A&M did a fantastic job running the ball, as they had two rushers go over 100 in this game with Spiller and Corbin. They averaged 6.8 ypc rushing the ball as a team. Spiller busted out a big 85 yard run to show off his explosive capabilities. Its that explosion and their ability to run the ball effectively, that will give the Clemson Tigers fits Saturday.
Clemson was prone to big chunk plays on the ground against a one dimensional and predictable offense from Georgia Tech. Although they only ended up with 3.5 ypc, Georgia Tech showed flashes of weakness in the Clemson defense on the outside. Particularly DE and LB speed. This is why I believe Texas A&M will be able to move the ball effectively on Clemson.
Trevor Lawrence looked pedestrian throughout the entire time he was in. 13/23 168 yards 1TD 2INT – not very impressive against one the ACC’s worst defenses. He is going to have to channel his inner NC game performance, if he wants to effectively move the ball against the Aggies.
Travis Etienne lit up GT’s poor run defense, for a tune of 205 yards and 3 TD. He busted out a 90 yard beauty early in the game. I don’t believe that he will have near the success against A&M, and I think he will be minimalized to a few big chunk plays. He will not be able to consistently run on the Aggies defensive front.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27 Clemson 24