We’re barely 5 games in for most teams in the league, and less than that for some. It’s way too soon in the season, but won’t stop me from making a few NBA Award picks to players who have started the year off super hot. I fully acknowledge the complete lack of sustainability for the numbers for a lot of these guys. Also, these aren’t season predictions. This is solely for the first few games.
Coach of the Year: Monty Williams
Monty Williams has completely turned this team around from last season even with a plug in of just a few replacement level players. They had a net rating last year of -9.2, and in a single off-season, they’ve posted a +8.1 net rating. He’s allowed a lot of pressure to be taken off of Devin Booker on offense, and has utilized Kelly Oubre very well. With most of the players on the team not being known for defense, Monty has assembled a team defensive scheme which allowed for significant improvement on that end. The lifetime back-up center and cult hero Aron Baynes has played incredibly well in the absence of Deandre Ayton. You can read more about the Suns success here.
Honorable Mentions: Erik Spoelstra, Greg Poppovich, Quin Snyder
6th Man of the Year: Lou Williams
Lou has continued his trend of bench dominance. He’s still putting up 20.3 points per game on .529 True Shooting % to bridge the scoring when Kawhi isn’t on the floor. He might be the best playmaker on the whole Clippers roster. His defensive numbers are terrible, but when flanked by Kawhi or Patrick Beverly, it’s less of an issue. Ideas have been thrown around which involve trading Lou Williams to upgrade the interior size for the Clippers. However, so far this season, Lou’s skillset and leadership has been invaluable to a team with high expectations.
Honorable Mention: Montrezl Harrell, Devonte Graham, Spencer Dinwiddie
Most Improved Player: Malcolm Brogdon
I’m actually happy about this one because I predicted it was possible. Brogdon’s change of role from an off-ball 3-&-D guy in Milwaukee to the lead facilitator in Indiana benefited himself significantly and the Pacers struck gold. He made a huge point jump from 15.6 to 22.5 per game while maintaining True Shooting percentage of 60%. Ironically, this wasn’t even the most impressive feat. He took a leap from an assist percentage of 16.2% to 46.6%. That kind of improvement is unprecedented. For reference, Russell Westbrook led the league in assist percentage last year with 46.5%. He is a high level playmaker and an efficient scorer. Combine this with his above average defense and Brogdon was a free agency steal for Indiana. In the absence of Victor Oladipo, Brogdon will continue to win games for Indy.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Ingram, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aron Baynes
Rookie of the Year: Kendrick Nunn
I was completely expecting a different ROTY Candidate from Miami than the one we got, but Nunn has been fantastic. He’s posted 19.5 Points per game on 59.1% True Shooting percentage. He’s certainly an old rookie, but he’s burst on to the scene very rapidly and effectively. Nunn has become a big part of the revamped Miami offense while presenting defensive value as well. He’s hitting 3’s at a high volume at an excellent 44.4% clip. If this holds up for a full season, the undrafted rookie may actually win the award over a very top heavy draft class.
Honorable Mention: Ja Morant, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Clarke
Defensive Player of the Year: Gary Harris
There were really two players that I was deciding between for this one. Gary Harris based on matchup has been incredible and that’s why I decided to go with him. He hasn’t allowed Jrue Holiday, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Buddy Hield, C.J McCollum, or Kenrick Nunn to score 20 points on him this season. It’s not a new thing either. According to a matchup-based defense model, Gary Harris was among the very best in defensive matchups. Finding himself 2nd in this particular model. There are certainly arguments for other players as defense is the hardest thing in basketball to quantify. However, the consistent lockdown from Gary Harris earns him the awards thus far
Honorable mentions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert, Jonathan Isaac
Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
This is something I fully expected. The best player in the NBA last year is continuing to enforce his will on his opponents. He’s stayed the same in points while jumping in assists and rebounds. His defense continues to be elite, utilizing his verticality, speed, and strength. His playmaking seems to have made a leap, increasing his assist percentage by 10.2%, a significant number. He’s the sole star (sorry Khris) on a very elite team on both ends of the court.
Honorable Mentions: Lebron James, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic
If the season ended today, this is what I would issue for my NBA Award picks. There’s obviously close races and arguments for other guys. I think in context, my guys are the right picks. I’m certainly not saying that all of this will stay until the end of the season, but if everything stays stable (which it won’t), this is what the results should be.
