With under 20 games remaining in the NBA regular season, the race for the playoffs is officially on. The introduction to the play-in tournament makes this stretch much more intriguing. Of course, every team wants to obtain a top-six seed, but hope remains as long as they finish in the top ten of their respective conference.
The Western Conference isn’t as much of a blender as the East. The top seed is a lock. However, seeding in the rest of the conference is up in the air.
When predicting where teams will fall, I tried considering a few factors. First, the strength of their remaining schedule played a key role. Second, directional trends and roster situations affected their final standing. Finally, I did not get too caught up in the play-in tournament. The key was whether they’d make the tournament, not necessarily if they would finish in ninth or tenth place.
Okay, let’s get to it.
Predicting NBA Western Conference Seeding
One Seed: Phoenix Suns
At 53-13, nobody in the NBA is catching the Suns. Even without Chris Paul, the team continues to roll along, winning seven of their last ten. Eight-and-a-half games ahead of the second-place Grizzlies, Phoenix would need to experience a severe implosion to fall off the mountain top.
According to Tankathon.com, Phoenix possesses the 13th-strongest remaining schedule. Their more difficult matchups include Memphis, Golden State, Utah, Philadelphia, and Denver. On the flip side, they also play Houston, Oklahoma City, two games against Sacramento, and two games against the Lakers. Throw in contests against Chicago and New Orleans, and you are looking at a favorable schedule.
Again, Phoenix at the top of the West is a lock.
Two Seed: Memphis Grizzlies
The two-seed is a toss-up between the Grizzlies and the Warriors. Memphis holds the spot, but Golden State is only half a game behind them. Over the last ten games, Memphis has been playing like a middle-of-the-road team, going 6-4 through their previous ten. At the same time, the Warriors are struggling. Securing just three wins over their last ten games, Golden State’s injury issues are starting to take their toll.
Memphis ranks 20th in the NBA in the strength of schedule for the remainder of the season. They have a notable matchup against tough opponents such as Phoenix, Golden State, Boston, Utah, and Denver. Conversely, they also have winnable games against New York, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Indiana (twice). They also go against the play-in contending Pelicans, which is far from a guaranteed win. Still, Memphis defeated them decisively earlier this week.
Three Seed: Golden State Warriors
For me, Golden State slipping down to fourth-place is not out of the question. Some tough questions involving health and depth could continue plaguing this team down the stretch. However, I am not convinced the teams below them can do enough to surpass the Warriors at the three-seed.
Golden State’s strength of schedule ranks 11th, but the team proves they can lose to just about anyone right now. The Warriors are making it clear that their postseason positioning does not phase them. For a group as battle-tested as them, it shouldn’t. Getting healthy for a playoff run is the top priority, leading to more losses. Still, the three-seed seems right for the Warriors.
Four Seed: Dallas Mavericks
Okay, time to get bold.
The Dallas Mavericks are one of those teams that aren’t receiving enough attention that could truly disrupt the playoff picture. They are a matchup nightmare for many teams and seem to be getting hot at the right time.
Going 7-3 in their last ten games, Dallas has the third-easiest remaining schedule. Yes, they still play games against Utah, Milwaukee, Boston, and Philadelphia. But when Minnesota and Cleveland are in the category of “toughest opponents,” you are in a good spot.
It’s unclear whether Dallas can do enough to take down some of their Western Conference foes in an entire postseason serious. Still, enough will go their way to get them in fourth place.
Five Seed: Denver Nuggets
I’m starting to think that I might not trust the Utah Jazz at all down the stretch.
The Nuggets are another team that is getting hot at the right time. Denver is currently on a four-game winning streak going 9-1 through their last ten games. In the meantime, Nikola Jokic continues to make a strong case for his second-straight MVP award.
In reality, Denver looks like another team that could capture the fourth seed. Dallas receives a slight upper hand due to a more effortless strength of schedule down the stretch.
Six Seed: Utah Jazz
Maybe I’m too hard on the Jazz. It’s also possible I’m subconsciously placing them sixth in hopes of being different. Either way, Utah remains a team that fails to gain my trust. In what should be a tight battle for seeds four through six, the Jazz choking enough to fall a bit in the standings seems like the correct prediction.
Of course, it does not help the Jazz that they possess the most challenging remaining schedule of the three teams.
Play-in Teams: Timberwolves, Clippers, Pelicans, & Lakers
Though the actual seeding seven through ten might change, these four teams appear safe bets for making the play-in tournament in the West. The Timberwolves and Clippers look most likely to make it to the playoffs of the four teams. If they do, neither should be an easy out.
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