During their win against Mississippi State today, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury while attempting to extend the play with his legs. While there are questions about who is to blame for Tua being in a game Alabama was winning by 28 points at the time and what Alabama should do, I think there is a more important question: how will Tua Tagovailoa’s injury impact his future?
Tua Tagovailoa’s Injury Itself
As I mentioned, Alabama was up 35-7 on Mississippi State when Tua went down. As he rolled out of the pocket trying to find an open man, two Bulldog players tackled him (cleanly) from behind, and he went down awkwardly. It appeared Tua may have broken his nose on the play, but the main concern was his ankle. After getting surgery on it earlier in the season, that was the first thing on everyone’s minds. At first, people were relieved it wasn’t. As new information comes out, however, every Alabama fans wish it was. Alabama beat writer Cecil Hurt reported he was airlifted to St. Vincent’s in Birmingham, and Jim Nagy reported Tua’s injury was a fractured hip.
As more information comes out, the full extent of the injury appears to be a dislocated hip with a posterior wall fracture. A hip dislocation generally requires two to three months to heal, potentially longer if a fracture is involved. A full recovery for Tua could take up to 18 months with rehab, a year at the least. While Tua could get a medical redshirt next year, and come back the following season, is that the best option for him?
The Case for a Medical Redshirt
There are advantages to Tua staying in college with a medical redshirt. Early in the season, Tua was widely projected as the number one pick, but after his ankle injury and the rise of Burrow, he slipped to a pick four in most mock drafts. After his most recent injury, however, Tua could fall out of the first day of the draft completely. If Tua comes back fully healthy in two seasons, he could show teams he is the same player and become a projected first overall pick again, making Tua $30 million richer based on the rookie pay scale. Staying could also give him a chance to win the Heisman, and add another National Championship to his trophy case. Staying seems like a no brainer, right?
The Case Against a Medical Redshirt
There are a few reasons why Tua should not seek a medical redshirt next season and stay in Tuscaloosa. A lot of the advantages come down to one big “if”: if Tua can come back healthy, which is not a guarantee. With a dislocated hip, potential complications are nerve damage, osteonecrosis (lack of blood flow to the bone, causing it to die), and arthritis. If any of those happen, this Tua Tagovailoa injury is career ending.
Outside of the medical side of things, 18 months is a long time. With five star QB Bryce Young committed, as well as Taulia Tagovailoa and Paul Tyson on the roster, who knows if Alabama would need Tua. Nick Saban would do everything he could to help the older Tagovailoa. However, he would not start a worse QB if it meant sacrificing wins. Even if Tua does come back and wins the job, all of his weapons will be gone. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle will all be in the NFL by then. While Alabama will recruit other playmakers, Tua will not have the same chemistry with them, and they may not be as good
The final case against a medical redshirt is the risk of another injury. Right now, Tua’s injuries are already a concern. If Tua suffers another injury, he will almost definitely go undrafted. Then, his signing bonus would fall in the $1,000 to $15,000 range, with a salary in the $600,000 range. With all of these factors in mind, what is best for Tua’s future.
Should Tua Still Declare for the Draft?
As much as it pains me to say this, yes. I don’t want my final memory of Tua to be him getting carted off the field covered in blood. But it’s what’s best for Tua’s future. There are too many question marks around staying another year, and falling in the draft could actually help his career. By falling, a team that doesn’t need a quarterback immediately would take him, allowing him to fully recover. His skillset is still good enough to use a late round pick on him at this time, and the $2.6 million he’d make is still more than he’d make staying in college another. By declaring early, he could spend all his time focused on recovery without worrying about life as a college student (they do go to class, I swear).
As I accept this Tua Tagovailoa injury signals the last time we see him in Crimson, let’s remember the good times.
