Disclaimer: Belly Up contributor Trevor Voytko and I teamed up to preview the Florida State vs. Florida match up. Voytko gave what he thought the Gators would need to do to come out on top, and I did the same. We both gave our final predictions at the end.
For the second year in a row, “The Sunshine State Showdown” between the Gators and ‘Noles will be a noon kickoff with minimal hype surrounding the game. This game doesn’t have the build-up as it did in the ’90s, nor does anyone expect another classic like “The Choke at Doak” in 1994, or “The Greatest Game Ever Played in The Swamp” in 1997. However, both teams still have plenty to play for. UF is looking to stay in contention for a New Year’s Six Bowl and to also snap a five-game losing streak to Florida State. FSU is looking to preserve a 36-year bowl streak, the longest currently in all of college football, and to play spoiler to their biggest rival’s successful season.
What FSU has to do to win:
While I believe FSU has more talent, they will be far from the best team on the field. The Gators have put together a nice season under Mullen’s, and a win in Tallahassee will have Gainesville rocking. It will come down to creating big plays at the end of the day, UF is going to have to hand this game to the Seminoles if they are going to have a chance to win.
If Florida State is going to win, they have to do two things successfully. Establish a run game, and protect the football. If the Seminoles expect to make it six wins in a row over the Florida Gators, sophomore Cam Akers, and Senior Jacques Patrick have to run the ball downfield which has not come easily this season with the ‘Noles fielding one of the worst offensive lines in college football.
Akers and Patrick are not going to be able to run the ball consistently, they have zero help from the big guys that are supposed to block for them. The duo is going to have to break big runs and hold onto the football. The Seminoles will need a handful of big runs to allow Deondre Francois and first-year head coach Willie Taggart to run any play action.
What UF has to do to win:
For UF to break the five-year streak, the Gators will need to control both lines of scrimmage. FSU boasts a very talented defensive line led by DE Brian Burns and his 10 sacks on the year. Controlling FSU’s very stout defensive line will allow Florida to do what they want, which is run the football with the three-headed monster of running backs in Jordan Scarlett, LaMichael Perine, and Dameon Pierce. That has been the formula for UF’s offensive production and it takes pressure off of QB Feleipe Franks.
Defensively, it shouldn’t be too hard for the Gators as FSU has one of the worst offensive lines in all of college football. The ‘Noles have allowed 31 sacks all year, which is tied for 108th in the nation. Moreover, the o-line is the main reason Cam Akers and Jacquez Patrick have not been able to get a running game going. UF’s defensive line should be able to dominate this unit with ease, which should make things easier for Florida’sbanged up secondary.
Keys to stopping FSU:
The Gators will need to rattle QB Deandre Francois early and often. While he hasn’t had the best year for FSU, he is still a very capable and talented quarterback, and UF has had trouble with solid quarterbacks all year. Mizzou’s Drew Lock, Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur, and South Carolina’s Jake Bentley have all given the Gators fits, especially in the first half. Those three QBs alone put up seven touchdowns to only two interceptions and over 800 yards of passing over “DBU.” That isn’t even counting the thrashing Jake Fromm, and the Georgia Bulldogs put on them in Jacksonville, either. It will be essential for UF to take advantage of FSU’s awful offensive line and force an early turnover or two to set the tone. If given time, Francois can and will take advantage of an undisciplined Gator defense. He’s done it before.
The biggest key to beating FSU will be getting out to an early lead and shutting down any thoughts of an upset. If UF allows the ‘Noles to hang around (something they have done with many teams this season), then this could be a toss-up. Florida State’syear to forget is not due to a lack of talent, but coaching. The team is loaded with talented athletes and has the potential to hang with most teams, and UF is no exception.
Keys to stopping UF:
Eliminating the big play, and avoiding careless penalties. The Seminoles special teams have struggled to pin teams deep, and have allowed more than enough big returns for one season. I honestly believe he Gators are going to have to beat themselves on Saturday if they are going to fall to the Seminoles.
Containing junior running back Jordan Scarlett and the rest of the Gators run game will be what makes or breaks it for the Seminoles though. They have to be able to focus on Quarterback Feleipe Franks and force him to turn the ball over.
Final predictions:
Blackburn: Florida State 31 Florida 27
This game is in Tallahassee, and the Seminoles have the longest bowl streak in College Football on the line along with a five-game winning streak over the Gators. This season has been nothing less than a disaster, but Seminole fans will be able to sleep easier knowing the upset the Gators and will be going to yet another bowl game for the 37th consecutive year.
Voytko: UF 34 FSU 17
I trust Dan Mullen a lot more than I do Willie Taggart. I think Mullen will have UF ready and motivated to finally end the five-year losing streak, and FSU’s 36-year bowl streak. I also think Florida will benefit from 1-2 defensive or special teams touchdowns, and the offense will play with confidence and competence.
