The most pressing (and apparently dramatic) task of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ offseason is re-signing restricted free agent Mitch Marner. With this contract, Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas faces one of his most difficult challenges yet.
Last year’s contract negotiations with William Nylander were rough. So now the pressure is on Dubas to avoid a repeat and get Marner signed before preseason camp begins. With Auston Matthews already signed during the season, Marner is the last of Toronto’s “big three” to get inked.
However, negotiations are already proving to be difficult for all parties involved.
While most contract negotiations are kept hush and mysterious, Marner’s is anything but. The Marner camp has been talking big since December. Their soundbites are only exacerbated by Toronto media voices like Darren Dreger, who seem to be fixated on the topic. The drama builds with new claims and soundbites every day.
But Kyle Dubas and the Leafs have remained unshaken by the noise, determined to stay focused on negotiations as professionally as possible.
Now deep into the offseason with more signings every day, the Marner camp is getting louder and louder. Jeff Skinner just signed with Buffalo at $9Mx8 and Kevin Hayes with Philadelphia at just over $7Mx7. The comparables for Marner are steadily emerging. The Marner camp, however, begs to differ.
The Toronto Maple Leafs face impending cap issues. There are currently only seventeen players on the roster and $15M left to sign the rest of the free agents. If rumors of Marner demanding Matthews money (an $11.6M cap hit) are true, it will be impossible for the Leafs to meet them. There just isn’t enough money left to give out another Matthews contract, whether Dubas is willing to budge or not. Marner will have to sit out the season if he refuses to go lower.
What about RFA offer sheets?
Realistically, the likelihood of a successful offer sheet is incredibly slim. There hasn’t been an offer sheet at all in the past six years. The last one was Ryan O’Reilly in 2013, which Colorado ended up matching. There hasn’t been an accepted offer sheet in twelve years; Dustin Penner from Anaheim to Edmonton in 2007. So yes, offer sheets exist and are a possibility. But they’re an incredibly rare occurrence and not nearly a real threat.
Besides, there are few teams in the league that can afford to give Mitch Marner roughly 14% of their cap hit. Even fewer of those can offer him the level of cup contendability and sponsorship potential that the Toronto market can.
What about a Trade?
Mitch Marner is a franchise face.
Despite the drama, he is still a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs. He is still a good player. While he’s not necessarily an $11M player, he still is an integral part of this era of the Leafs. Because of this, I can’t see Dubas trading him unless there’s real risk of an offer sheet.
Which goes back to the unlikelihood of an offer sheet at all.
So a trade wouldn’t be Dubas-driven, yet I can’t see one being Marner-driven, either. Mitch Marner is a Toronto native that grew up on the Leafs; this has always been his dream. He has it good on the Leafs and in the Toronto market. Sacrificing that for an extra percent or two of the salary cap is unreasonable and, again, unlikely.
The Reality
At the end of the day, I think that the Marner camp is fronting for now. But, I predict that they will eventually startle into a contract before the season starts. Marner had seen what happened with Nylander and the wobbly season he had because of it. I don’t think he wants to be a repeat of it. On the other side, Dubas has already gone through one hold-out. He is now more equipped and experienced to get this contract done sooner.
I don’t think Marner will sign a long contract, especially after Matthews signed for only five years. In fact, the plausibility of a bridge deal grows as the drama and noise gets louder. A bridge won’t be beneficial to either party. But if neither side can budge, it might become the only solution in getting Marner on the roster. Yet, I still don’t think it will come to that.
My final prediction is $10M for five years. It’s a little bit more than my initial prediction but adjusted to the pressure and the circumstances. That’s about 12% of the salary cap and closer to Matthews’ contract than it is Nylander’s. It’s also slightly higher than Marner’s comparables. Realistically, it should be enough to appease the Marner camp. At the same time, it gives Dubas approximately $6M to sign the rest of his guys.
It’s still relatively early in the offseason. There is actually plenty of time left to get Marner signed before preseason camp, let alone the season. But for the sake of ending the drama and saving Leafs fans’ sanity, this contract should be first priority. Especially with the rest of the roster to sign. So can Mitch Marner please just re-sign with the Maple Leafs already?
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