NFL Draft Position Breakdown – QB Edition

Position Outlook

Position Rank among other positions:

• Top-End Talent – 6th (of 11)
• Depth – 10th
• 1st Round Caliber Players – 3 (7th)
• Overall – 7th

I am vehemently against the notion that this QB class is bad. It seems that if entering a CFB season, there is no top-ranked QB from traditional power schools (such as Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, etc.), the class is marked as “BAD” from the get-go. As a result, each player’s flaws are picked and analyzed to shreds, while the good qualities are mostly ignored.
While this draft doesn’t have the top-end talent that most drafts do, 2 players should be quality NFL starters at least, with the potential to be superstars. Additionally, given the nature of the position, 4 QBs deserve to go in the 1st round.

Position Ranking

1. Desmond Ridder CIN – Full Scouting Report
2. Matt Corral MISS – Full Scouting Report
3. Malik Willis LIB – Full Scouting Report
4. Sam Howell UNC – Full Scouting Report
5. Kenny Pickett PITT – Full Scouting Report

The ordering of this list has shuffled around for all scouts, but for me, it’s stayed pretty rigid. The top tier is Ridder and Corral, with a big drop-off to Tier 2. Willis and Howell highlight the next tier, for different reasons entirely. One possesses extreme untapped potential but is at a horrendous starting point. The other possesses a polished and complete package of skills, but isn’t special at all, lacking any ceiling. Pickett (as explained below) doesn’t belong on the same list as the rest of these players. There are 4 starting caliber NFL talents in this draft, Pickett isn’t one of them.

Ranking Notes

Overrated

• Kenny Pickett PITT – Not only is he not special or great at any individual quality, he also has smaller hands than any successful NFL QB has ever had. If he was great, I’d let it slide, but he wasn’t. Additionally, only breaking out as a 5th year senior after starting for the same school for all 5 years is a major red flag.
• Malik Willis LIB – While he possesses rare qualities, he is so raw as a passer. He doesn’t read the field well at all, and he will need to sit for a while to learn an NFL offense. Additionally, he isn’t nearly as good a runner as everyone says he is. There is enough intrigue and potential to keep his stock afloat, but he should be nowhere near the Top 10 in the Draft.

Underrated

• Desmond Ridder CIN – Despite being many scouts QB1, the negativity surrounding the position has him lower than he should be. His winning mentality, leadership, arm strength, and deceptive mobility are all off-the-charts. If it weren’t for his putrid accuracy, he would be locked in as a Top 5 pick.
• Matt Corral MISS – For some reason, Corral gets no hype. Possibly from his lack of consistency or the simple RPO offense he ran. Still, his high-end plays are better than anyone in this class, and he is the most gifted playmaker in this position group.

Sleepers

• EJ Perry BU – Aside from being a great athlete, he showed great maturity picking up garbage after the Combine. He didn’t do much on tape, but his smarts, maturity, and athleticism will get him drafted in the early portion of Day 3.
• Brock Purdy ISU – There are many flaws with Purdy, but he is one of the most natural and gifted improvisers in this class.

Biggest Risers

• Malik Willis LIB – Most of Willis’s flaws are in-game, so it’s no surprise he lit up the pre-draft process. Between showing off his arm, mobility, or leadership, he has blown scouts away with his “unteachable qualities”.
• EJ Perry BU – As mentioned, Perry earned himself big bucks at the Combine. A previously UDFA lock, he is now a lock to be drafted.

Biggest Fallers

• Kenny Pickett PITT – The hand size shook up the draft community. Many haven’t dropped him that far in their rankings, but they should.
• Carson Strong NEV – Strong’s nagging knee injury has caused his stock to drop for years. Despite having many enticing traits, the “ticking time bomb” will cause many teams to avoid drafting him completely, no matter the cost.

Superlative Ranks

Most Athletic

1. Desmond Ridder CIN
2. EJ Perry BU
3. Kenny Pickett PITT

Best Arm Talent

1. Matt Corral MISS
2. Desmond Ridder CIN
3. Sam Howell UNC

Most Accurate

1. Sam Howell UNC
2. Kenny Pickett PITT
3. Matt Corral MISS

Best Mobility

1. Malik Willis LIB
2. Desmond Ridder CIN
3. Matt Corral MISS

Best Football IQ & Field Vision

1. Matt Corral MISS
2. Sam Howell UNC
3. Desmond Ridder CIN

Best Improvisor

1. Matt Corral MISS
2. Sam Howell UNC
3. Brock Purdy ISU

Final Projection

Although I have been planting my flag that this QB class isn’t as bad as people say they are, the NFL disagrees with me. To make matters worse, few teams will undoubtedly select a QB in this draft, as the bad teams will wait until next year, the good teams have their guy, and most of the “mediums” are settling for a bridge signal-caller. This doesn’t bode well for my predictions, as draft capital plays a large role in the resources a team invests in their rookie QB, and that will directly correlate to their success.
There are only 2 QBs am excited about, but it’s possible neither goes in the 1st round.
Willis is a 1st round lock. Pickett shouldn’t be, but he is widely viewed as the QB1, so he won’t fall past 20. Corral and Ridder could go anywhere between 8th to the Falcons to 32nd to the Lions, or even beyond.
Howell’s stock has taken the biggest hit, and he’s done little to keep it afloat. I don’t see any reality in which he is a 1st rounder, aside from a dart throw at 32 by the Lions.

See the Quarterbacks’ overall ranking among other players on my Big Board.

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