Heat Goes Up, Hype Goes Up
In the dog days of summer, the temperature in Las Vegas nears 110 degrees, as the city turns into a virtual frying pan. The air is dry, as the people outside of their air conditioning remain damp or even soaked in their own sweat. It is that time of year again when NBA teams send rosters of rookies, young players, and long-shot ballers to Sin City. Some of them are there to get their first taste of the NBA life. Some are there for the coaches to evaluate their progress. The last few, are just continuing to chase their dream of a life in professional basketball. For the fans, it’s a promise of a fresh start, and the potential the future holds.
Feeling the Draft
The most exciting part of every Summer League is the chance to see the new guys. A chance to see how well certain teams picked in the most recent NBA Draft. This past draft is considered the deepest in at least a decade, stocking the courts of the MGM Grand with potential. None of those more promising than the league’s number one overall pick Cade Cunningham. After averaging 20 points and 6 rebounds per game in one season at Oklahoma State, the Detroit Pistons decided to roll the dice on the 6’9″ playmaker, in hopes of returning Motown to its late eighties heyday. America is on the edge of its seat to see if this gamble pays off.
We See the Smoke
ESPN loves to make a mountain out of a molehill. Nothing floods the airwaves of Bristol quite like a story, blown completely out of proportion. Tim Tebow almost catches a pass in practice? That’s good for two days of coverage on Sportscenter, First Take, and PTI. LeBron James did a bad impression of a teammate? That’s good for a week of coverage. Why should Disney’s garbage sports network treat one game of NBA Summer League any different?
At Oklahoma State, Cunningham was a player some nights and a ghost on others. He lacks a good long-range shot and elite perimeter defense. In other words, he’s a poor man’s Ben Simmons. On August 10th, in a showdown versus number two pick Jalen Green, Cunningham scored 20 points. It wouldn’t even take hours for headlines and highlight reels to inspire talking heads to start asking what year Cunningham will be enshrined in Springfield, Massachusetts.
We Hear the Sizzle
There were some dazzling drives and impressive shots by both the top pick and the second pick. Enough sizzle to make the willfully ignorant forget instantly about Cunningham’s 12 point debut. The holes in his game from college didn’t disappear. They are still very evident. Though that’s not what the sports media would have you believe. They only want you to see the dunks and they flash 20 points on screens everywhere. They’d have you believe that scoring ten field goals against guys who will never play a minute in the league means the Rookie of the Year award has already been handed out. Cunningham may even go on to average 20 this summer when all is said and done.
There Is No Fire
Scoring 20 points in a Summer League game doesn’t matter or mean anything. Averaging 20 points doesn’t mean anything or indicate anything for the upcoming season or seasons to come. In the 2019 NBA Summer League, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Pelicans’ 17th pick in that draft led all rookies in scoring. He averaged 24.2 points per game. He was a scoring machine, completely unstoppable by all the future grocery baggers on the court. How did it work out for him? Did he become the Rookie of the Year? No. In fact, he went on to average a mind-blowing 5.7 points over 13 minutes per game.
In 2018, the Lakers’ Josh Hart dropped 22.4 points per game in the Summer League and went on to average just 7.84 points during the regular season. The Spurs’ Bryn Forbes dominated in the 2017 Summer League. He averaged 26 points in five games in Las Vegas, and then played 3 games in Salt Lake City and averaged 21.3. That regular season for the Spurs, he averaged 6.9 points.
Does anybody remember Trey Lyles? If not, it’s probably because he didn’t amount to much after scoring 23.8 points per game in his rookie season during the Summer League. It doesn’t matter how many points you score or rebounds you grab. These are glorified men’s league games.
The Exception
There are exceptions to every rule. Occasionally a rookie’s performance in the summer league actually does reflect their upcoming season. Case in point is the Utah Jazz superstar Donovan Mitchell. He averaged 28 points per game in his rookie Summer League back in 2017. His rookie year, he averaged 20.5 during the regular season and has become one of the premier players in the entire league. The big question we need to ask ourselves in 2021 is, “Is Cade Cunningham Donovan Mitchell, or is he Nickeil Alexander-Walker?”
Maybe he’s neither. Maybe he’s both. However it turns out, the moral of the story is that it’s impossible to accurately predict the career arc of a rookie, based on his performance in the Summer League. Cade Cunningham will likely continue to light up the summer, but that doesn’t mean he will light up the league once the regular season starts. So, when ESPN or Fox shows his highlights for two days straight after a 20 point performance, don’t get all warmed up about him, no matter what the temperature is. Just cool down, and take it for what it is. A nice job against mostly amateurs in an exhibition game.
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