At the end of each NBA season, the media gets to select the end of year award honors to the players they feel best deserved them. But we all know how these things work. A narrative is formed early. Articles come out midseason with NBA award predictions. If the narrative proves true, nothing stops the runaway train towards an award. If the story gets stale, the media latches onto the next narrative. This season alone saw MVP candidates ranging from the Chicago Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan to the Golden State Warriors’ Steph Curry to more.
The stakes are high as some of these decisions carry huge financial implications for the players. So you would think that every regular-season game matters, right? Well actually no, not to a lot of voters. Many pundits pre-filled their ballots weeks ago. I like to consider the entire season from start to finish but since I don’t have an official vote, I’ll put my NBA award predictions here. Let’s look at the currently projected winners and who I think should win (individual awards only).
Rookie of the Year:
Projected Winner – Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Who should win – Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons)
Cleveland won games this year off the back of their defensive style of play. Evan Mobley was a strong part of their defensive unit but teammate Jarrett Allen was the defensive stalwart that made the All-Star team. Cleveland’s slide down the standings coincided with an Allen injury. So I would like to go with Cade Cunningham.
Cade Cunningham had a very solid rookie year. He started a bit later than everyone else but finished with averages of 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He showed himself to be a leader and the Piston’s best player by the end of the season.
Sixth Man of the Year:
Projected Winner – Tyler Herro (Miami Heat)
Who should win – Tyler Herro
This one is exactly right as Herro has been incredible in his third season (a contract extension is forthcoming this summer). Coming off the bench after a lackluster second year, Herro has destroyed opposing teams with averages of 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. He is an absolute bucket. With Herro as the main culprit, the Miami Heat lead the league in bench points. His consistency and health in the absence of major games missed by the big three of Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler have Miami at the top of the Eastern Conference. The Tyler Herro hype that began last summer was worth the car crash.
girl get so excited to see Tyler Herro forgets to put car in park and crashes into the wall, her friend was still in the car. EVERYONES OK THOUGH. @raf_tyler not my video( i’m in it tho ) pic.twitter.com/qdQryvh6Wt
— kalliope tsartsalis (@kalliopetsarts5) September 11, 2021
Coach of the Year:
Projected Winner – Taylor Jenkins (Memphis Grizzlies)
Who should win – Monty Williams (Phoenix Suns)
Let’s not play around with this one media people! I love the Memphis Grizzlies story. How no one expected them to be this high in the standings. I love what Erik Spoelstra has done all season for the Miami Heat. Winning the Eastern Conference despite missing key personnel for numerous games.
At the end of the day, the Suns have been dominant on both ends of the court literally from November to April. Missing key players for large stretches of the season didn’t matter. COVID didn’t matter. The hangover from last season’s NBA Finals run didn’t matter. The Suns produced the most season wins in franchise history this year. It’s like losing to the champion Milwaukee Bucks just galvanized them to play even harder. Everybody’s statistics are up and yet no one on their team is projected in the top two for any of the awards. Credit to the coach. If you don’t know his backstory, please check it out.
Defensive Player of the Year:
Projected Winner – Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics)
Who should win – Jrue Holiday (Milwaukee Bucks)
Marcus Smart has always been a tenacious defender but the call for him to win the prestigious Defensive Player of the Year award seems more like a lifetime achievement award than anything. His teammate Jayson Tatum, lead the league this year in Defensive Win Shares. His other teammate, Texas A&M alum Robert Williams, lead the league in Defensive Rating and he was likely their best defender all season. Boston’s defense was more of an ensemble effort.
This season, I have watched Jrue Holiday single-handedly lock up opposing players. Lock up! I’m talking players like Kyrie Irving refusing to shoot while Holiday is checking him. He has always been talked about as a defensive stud, but the media normally looks to forwards and centers for this award. I think given the lack of very dominant bigs near the top of the NBA standings should stand to reason that top-notch guard play is what drives success this year. Holiday has been consistent all year, culminating in narratives from his peers stating that he could be the best defender of his era.
Most Improved Player of the Year
Projected Winner – Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Who should win – Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies)
As much as Jarrett Allen improved the Cavs on the defensive end, Darius Garland was the star that stirred the offense’s drink this season. Most NBA award predictions consistently considered him to be the most improved player all season but Ja Morant was electrifying.
Ja Morant wowed crowds all season with a flair for the dramatic. Dunks, buzzer beaters, and highlight-reel plays dotted each game as he stuffed the stat sheets with averages of 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists. At just 22 years old, he had career highs in virtually every category but his notoriety is as follows:
MVP:
Projected Winner – Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
Who should win – Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)
Luka Doncic has proven time and time again that he is the engine, the heartbeat, and the star that the Mavericks orbit. He carries the entire team and lifts them to another level each night. He is averaging a ridiculous 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists. These aren’t numbers that are ignored in most years but no one is speaking about Doncic in the MVP conversation. The Mavericks finished with a better record than the projected top candidates. Doncic is operating as the only heralded player on the roster.
What is this sorcery? pic.twitter.com/ABff7uI8Wn
— Belly Up Basketball (@HoopsBellyUp) April 7, 2022
Nikola Jokic, the reigning NBA MVP, sports averages of 27 points, 13 rebounds, and nearly 9 assists per night. Simply astonishing. Jokic is one of the most unique centers to ever play but his play this season did not result in the same winning as in last season’s MVP campaign. The Nuggets finished sixth in the West but they were as low as seventh for a stretch near the end of the season when award voters started making their votes. The last person to win an MVP from the sixth seed or lower was triple-double king Russell Westbrook.
I’m not sure how the media moved off of the Joel Embiid for MVP narrative but it may have something to do with the James Harden trade and the subsequent title expectations. Despite Harden’s possible leaving.
A Few Thoughts About the Regular Season and Play-In Tournament
- They should consider ELAM endings for the Play-In Tournament. I think it guarantees an exciting ending to what should all be exciting games. Even in blowouts.
- Injuries and health protocols caused over 8000 games missed by NBA players this season. It feels like this has had a depressing effect on large parts of the season. I think the NBA should strongly consider starting in November and reducing to 75 games to further reduce back-to-backs.
NBA injury plot. Games missed by injured players and health protocols versus team wins. Bubble size represents cumulative quality of players lost for games (Lost-ws metric) https://t.co/b97rKvtLgP pic.twitter.com/9mcKNqskqX
— Man Games Lost NBA (@ManGamesLostNBA) April 8, 2022
- Is Ben Simmons going to play? I honestly think it would be crazy for the Brooklyn Nets to play a guy who hasn’t played in a year, but would you be surprised? They gambled on a super team concept and it has yielded zero benefits so far. Ben Simmons and the Brooklyn Experiment will have its day at some point.
- LeBron James missing the playoffs is bad for his legacy. I have personally been in the camp of him being the greatest player in NBA history but it depends on how his career ends. Tweeting about the playoff games instead of playing in them won’t cut it.
- The tweaks to the NBA reviews and challenge rule have made for a much more pleasant end game experience this season. The final minute in a game is not half an hour long anymore! The only thing I would add is placing active players on the neutral side of the court (opposite their bench) during automatic reviews. Allowing their coach to draw up a play amounts to a free timeout and slows the game down. The players never break those huddles speedily enough.
The NBA Playoffs Have Arrived
These playoffs will tell a lot about a whole lot of teams. Huge implications for Denver, Utah, Phoenix, Miami, Philadelphia… basically every team not named Memphis. The only team probably playing with house money unless the Lakers go after their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, this offseason. We can expect a ton of shakeups when the offseason begins, but a very thrilling NBA playoff awaits!
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1 Comment
Well done. Gréât choices